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Christopher Peters

@statwonk.bsky.social

Dad, Partner. Statistician-Econometrician-Engineer. AI Developer. Decision theory. Game theory. #autisticpride #9 at Zapier, first DS

777 Followers  |  1,092 Following  |  416 Posts  |  Joined: 08.10.2023  |  1.8045

Latest posts by statwonk.bsky.social on Bluesky

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Trump Doubles Tariff on India to 50%, Sparking Outrage in Delhi US President Donald Trump doubled tariffs on Indian goods to 50% as a penalty for its purchases of Russian oil, escalating a fight with a key Asian partner and sparking outrage in New Delhi.

> Trump Doubles Tariff on India 50%, Sparking Outrage in Delhi

Good, nobody should be allowed to fuel genocide.

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

07.08.2025 05:38 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Top Trump officials will discuss Epstein strategy at Wednesday dinner hosted by Vance | CNN Politics Top Trump administration officials will gather at the vice president’s residence Wednesday evening as they continue to weigh whether to publish an audio recording and transcript of Deputy Attorney Gen...

suffice it to say it's not normal for the AG and FBI director to meet with administration officials about an ongoing coverup

06.08.2025 04:12 β€” πŸ‘ 5818    πŸ” 1936    πŸ’¬ 292    πŸ“Œ 136
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We love these little guys, don't we folks?

06.08.2025 04:14 β€” πŸ‘ 45    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 0
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Banking CEO breaks from the pack on return to office. He goes in 4 days a week but leaves the rest up to the β€˜adults’ he works with Standard Chartered CEO Bill Winters told Bloomberg: β€œWe work with adults, and the adults can have an adult conversation with other adults and decide how they’re going to best manage their team.”

> Banking CEO breaks from the pack on return to office. He goes in 4 days a week but leaves the rest up to the β€˜adults’ he works with

finance.yahoo.com/news/banking...

06.08.2025 02:17 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Why would anyone import a tariff’d chip if they can just run it outside the US and import the information through the internet no problem?

Chip tariffs don’t make sense and would backfire.

05.08.2025 14:05 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Trump Says US to Hike India’s Tariffs Over Russian Oil Buys President Donald Trump said he would be β€œsubstantially raising” the tariff on Indian exports to the US over New Delhi’s purchases of Russian oil, ramping up his threat to target a major trading partne...

> Trump Says US to Hike India’s Tariffs Over Russian Oil Buys

Ukraine deserves this protection and more.

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

04.08.2025 15:26 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Figure from Ernie Tedeschi titled nonfarm payroll employment percent revisions

Figure from Ernie Tedeschi titled nonfarm payroll employment percent revisions

Important to remember that because of the incredible work of government statisticians, initial BLS employment estimates have become MORE accurate.

Its revisions are now smaller than those from years past

excellent figure from @ernietedeschi.bsky.social

04.08.2025 14:42 β€” πŸ‘ 227    πŸ” 89    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 6
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The media should write another piece about Mamdani

04.08.2025 02:58 β€” πŸ‘ 1681    πŸ” 266    πŸ’¬ 58    πŸ“Œ 18
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The fact that nobody around him has told him this isn’t how numbers work shows you how afraid of him everyone who works for him is.

04.08.2025 03:16 β€” πŸ‘ 10127    πŸ” 2776    πŸ’¬ 906    πŸ“Œ 298

This is,,,, not correct.

BEFORE the revision, the jobs numbers were inconsistent w/ the 1.2% avg growth we saw the first half of this year. It looked as though we had significantly higher job growth than our econ growth implied.

Now that the jobs numbers have been revised down, they’re consistent.

04.08.2025 02:45 β€” πŸ‘ 259    πŸ” 63    πŸ’¬ 5    πŸ“Œ 3

He absolutely gives himself away citing the law. First he lists protected classes - religion, race, and sexual preference. THEN says "I don't think you should discriminate based on politics" (hard to hear exactly). He knows where the law stops.

02.08.2025 22:21 β€” πŸ‘ 1070    πŸ” 35    πŸ’¬ 18    πŸ“Œ 0
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Timeline cleanse: Insta video of Allen Dershowitz being told by Martha's Vineyard police to stop harassing vendors or be charged with trespassing after three different sellers refused him service. 1/3

www.instagram.com/reel/DMvVG1S...

02.08.2025 20:34 β€” πŸ‘ 16249    πŸ” 3669    πŸ’¬ 1891    πŸ“Œ 1088
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The world must be ending. MTG did a good thing and spoke the truth (while most Democrats have failed miserably).

03.08.2025 02:14 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1
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That’s a fluctuation around a declining trend. Also, tariffs aren’t controllable by monetary policy. Plus, real interest rates have risen.

fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAU...

02.08.2025 05:36 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
President Trump called into question the integrity of the Employment Situation report that the BLS released this morning. He accused BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer of deliberately reporting false numbers to reflect poorly on this administration. This baseless, damaging claim undermines the valuable work and dedication of BLS staff who produce the reports each month. This escalates the President’s unprecedented attacks on the independence and integrity of the federal statistical system.
The President seeks to blame someone for unwelcome economic news. The Commissioner does not determine what the numbers are but simply reports on what the data show. The process of obtaining the numbers is decentralized by design to avoid opportunities for interference. The BLS uses the same proven, transparent, reliable process to produce estimates every month. Every month, BLS revises the prior two months’ employment estimates to reflect slower-arriving, more-accurate information. 
This rationale for firing Dr. McEntarfer is without merit and undermines the credibility of federal economic statistics that are a cornerstone of intelligent economic decision-making by businesses, families, and policymakers. U.S. official statistics are the gold standard globally. When leaders of other nations have politicized economic data, it has destroyed public trust in all official statistics and in government science.

We call on Congress to respond immediately, to investigate the factors that led to Commissioner McEntarfer’s removal, to strongly urge the Commissioner’s continued service, and ensure that the nonpartisan integrity of the position is retained. The statement from the President undermines these tenets and politicizes data which cannot and should not be used for political points.

President Trump called into question the integrity of the Employment Situation report that the BLS released this morning. He accused BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer of deliberately reporting false numbers to reflect poorly on this administration. This baseless, damaging claim undermines the valuable work and dedication of BLS staff who produce the reports each month. This escalates the President’s unprecedented attacks on the independence and integrity of the federal statistical system. The President seeks to blame someone for unwelcome economic news. The Commissioner does not determine what the numbers are but simply reports on what the data show. The process of obtaining the numbers is decentralized by design to avoid opportunities for interference. The BLS uses the same proven, transparent, reliable process to produce estimates every month. Every month, BLS revises the prior two months’ employment estimates to reflect slower-arriving, more-accurate information. This rationale for firing Dr. McEntarfer is without merit and undermines the credibility of federal economic statistics that are a cornerstone of intelligent economic decision-making by businesses, families, and policymakers. U.S. official statistics are the gold standard globally. When leaders of other nations have politicized economic data, it has destroyed public trust in all official statistics and in government science. We call on Congress to respond immediately, to investigate the factors that led to Commissioner McEntarfer’s removal, to strongly urge the Commissioner’s continued service, and ensure that the nonpartisan integrity of the position is retained. The statement from the President undermines these tenets and politicizes data which cannot and should not be used for political points.

"...escalates the President’s unprecedented attacks on the independence & integrity of the federal statistical system.

"The president seeks to blame someone for unwelcome economic news.

"...firing Dr. McEntarfer is without merit & undermines the credibility of federal economic statistics..."

01.08.2025 20:07 β€” πŸ‘ 413    πŸ” 167    πŸ’¬ 12    πŸ“Œ 28

Waller and Bowman were obviously correct about the need to lower rates.

As inflation has fallen, real interest rates have risen, and the consequence is below potential growth.

02.08.2025 02:59 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
NEWS: A record-high 27 Democratic Senators voted for a Bernie Sanders-led resolution blocking the sell of bombs to Israel 

Voting YES: Merkley, King, Sanders, Heinrich, Durbin, Murphy, Warnock, Shaheen, Markey, Van Hollen, Murray, Kaine, Reed, Warren, Blunt Rochester, Baldwin, Klobuchar, Kim, Ossoff, Smith, Hirono, Duckworth, Alsobrooks, Whitehouse, LujΓ‘n, Welch, Schatz 

The motion fails 27-70

NEWS: A record-high 27 Democratic Senators voted for a Bernie Sanders-led resolution blocking the sell of bombs to Israel Voting YES: Merkley, King, Sanders, Heinrich, Durbin, Murphy, Warnock, Shaheen, Markey, Van Hollen, Murray, Kaine, Reed, Warren, Blunt Rochester, Baldwin, Klobuchar, Kim, Ossoff, Smith, Hirono, Duckworth, Alsobrooks, Whitehouse, LujΓ‘n, Welch, Schatz The motion fails 27-70

Dems not on this list should automatically be primaried.

31.07.2025 02:27 β€” πŸ‘ 86    πŸ” 26    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 6
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A vote to halt the sale of bombs to Israel just failed, despite more Dems (27) voting in favor of it.

@MarshaBlackburn & @SenatorHagerty voted to continue to sell weapons to Israel β€” despite starvation and continued daily killings. www.yahoo.com/news/article...

31.07.2025 02:27 β€” πŸ‘ 471    πŸ” 155    πŸ’¬ 45    πŸ“Œ 15
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This Tuckahoe home won a $1.26 billion contract for an ICE detention center. The owner isn't talking. The company’s website is dated and largely accessible only via login.

how much of the money from the ICE/tax cuts bill is just going to go to scammers, do you think? www.richmonder.org/this-tuckaho...

31.07.2025 00:31 β€” πŸ‘ 13864    πŸ” 5007    πŸ’¬ 584    πŸ“Œ 497

Is that an actual thing? Seems oxymoron-ish.

31.07.2025 02:37 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

So if everybody has now pivoted to "Gaza is an atrocity" are electeds going to make certain to protect the people who have been charged with crimes for using their free speech to try to prevent or stop mass suffering and death? Are they going to unwind reactionary new laws curbing our constitutional

31.07.2025 02:29 β€” πŸ‘ 608    πŸ” 128    πŸ’¬ 15    πŸ“Œ 8

Just generically pro-disease; actual early-stage Nurgle cult infiltration would look like this.

05.07.2025 19:10 β€” πŸ‘ 451    πŸ” 100    πŸ’¬ 21    πŸ“Œ 1

You'd think ostensibly educated people would actually have learned about the 1930s.

And the hundred other times people have tried appeasing a demagogue.

And yet...

24.07.2025 18:57 β€” πŸ‘ 21    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

CPI in April: 2.3%
CPI in May: 2.5%
CPI in June: 2.7%

24.07.2025 23:46 β€” πŸ‘ 1581    πŸ” 413    πŸ’¬ 134    πŸ“Œ 31

That’s hilarious! πŸ˜† IRL GANs. I think it’s worthy of praise as an intense usage of AI.

24.07.2025 23:57 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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This is how it’s done, No Bull πŸ’©, No drama and No Grandstanding!

22.07.2025 14:09 β€” πŸ‘ 18774    πŸ” 4418    πŸ’¬ 805    πŸ“Œ 423
Post image 23.07.2025 08:38 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Jeff Daniels speaks out..

He's everything that's wrong.

We’re supposed to elect the best of us, not the worst of us.

22.07.2025 10:53 β€” πŸ‘ 21749    πŸ” 6841    πŸ’¬ 614    πŸ“Œ 416

I’m glad. :) No worries, I totally understand. I’ve gone deep into OLS and LMs and enjoy chatting about their nuances.

23.07.2025 08:12 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Obviously it’s okay to have doubt, but n alone isn’t a reasonable basis, bc it’s already taken care of as part of standard error computation.

23.07.2025 02:11 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

@statwonk is following 20 prominent accounts