More than anything else, depth is the Thunder’s superpower.

When Holmgren, J Dub, and Caruso are pre-occupied elsewhere, your 12th man - Kenrich Williams - is good enough to be serviceable against the most unguardable player in the league.

Crazy.

a basketball player wearing a spurs jersey dribbles the ball ALT: a basketball player wearing a spurs jersey dribbles the ball

But what do you think? Is Dylan Harper better than you thought? As advertised?

Would love to hears others' thoughts.

#DylanHarper #AnthonyEdwards #SanAntonioSpurs #NBA #MinnesotaTimberwolves #BasketballHighlights #HoopsTalk

All of this to say: Dylan Harper is that guy.

After a weird couple years of picks, San Antonio has crushed their drafts the past few years. A backcourt of Fox, Castle & Harper is buzzsaw for paint defenders, and with Castle & Harper still developing - it's a scary sight for other West teams.

To go back to the comparison, adding an outside shot unlocked Ant, and now defenders are caught trying to either guard the 3pt line or the rim - an impossible task.

If you're defending a PnR with Ant, are you going under or over? He's a bucket either way.

As a result, Ant's 3P% has improved too.

Shooting is the next frontier for Harper.

He shot 33.3% from 3 at Rutgers, and is shooting 26.3% for the Spurs.

Guards that get to the rim at such a high rate tend to go one of two ways:

1. Rely on athleticism to continue to get to the rim
2. Develop an outside shot to unlock driving lanes.

I'm not saying Harper is Ant - he's not.

Entirely different frames & personalities, shot diets & teammates, and they're both building their own legacies.

But hey, it's fun to compare right? Perhaps it can give us some insight into where Harper can develop to get onto an All-NBA track.

What next?

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So I was curious, how does this stack up compared to the elite guards of the previous drafts?

Turns out pretty favourably. The last rookie guard with a comparable rim rate and shoot diet?

Anthony Edwards.

Ant took 6.4 shots from close range in his rookie year, and hit at a 57.7% clip.

If we remove the qualifier that he's a rookie, he is tied for 5th in shots taken within 5ft, and his success rate is comparable.

The names ahead of him?
- Amen Thompson (65.1%)
- Tyrese Maxey (62.4%)
- Cade Cunningham (58.5%)
- Shaedon Sharpe (63.6%).

That's a pretty good list to be on.

But has that translated to the NBA?

Yes. Yes it has.

Harper is shooting 6.1 shots within 5ft, and hitting 60.4% of them. Jeremiah Fears - another guard who's rim-penetration has been a standout - shoots the same number but only hits 55.5%.

No other rookie guards are in the same stratosphere.

Last year at Rutgers, Harper led all freshman guards, shooting 71.8% from close 2's & dunks, and only trailed Khaman Maluach & Asa Newell amongst all drafted players.

It's not a small sample either - he shot 130/181.

He gets to the rim at a rate closer to that of centers, than that of a guard.

I said the other day that I thought Dylan Harper was getting to the rim at will, so I wanted to pull some stats to see if my eyes were telling the truth... Boy are they.

Historically, getting to the rim in college is often translatable to the NBA, and Harper has that ability in spades.

I mean, Spurs/Thunder is absolutely appointment tv.

And we’ll see them again:
- December 23rd
- December 25th
- January 13th.

Hell yeah.

I haven’t looked at the stats at all, but Dylan Harper gets to the rim more than any rookie guard I can remember in years.

Gets there at will, like a vet.

With the win tonight, the Raptors are into the NBA Cup Quarterfinals.

Great nights for all the starters + Mamu, but extra shoutout to Ja’Kobe Walter and Jamal Shead.

Walter was a great connective piece and is such a ball hound.

For Shead, he was a dog on D and 10 assists in 19mins is cracked.

Turns on Toronto Raptors in-season tournament game:

a man wearing a purple shirt is talking into a microphone and says do i look nervous . ALT: a man wearing a purple shirt is talking into a microphone and says do i look nervous .

#4Nations

Jordan Binnington in any meaningful game in TD Garden:

He was easily on of the best signings of the off-season - especially at that price.

Compared to other off-season moves, this ranks in the Caruso -> Thunder, Atkinson -> Cavs, sort of realm for me.

There are likely a few reasons this happens, none of which being the silver bullet.

A) NBA skill dev. programs are better than youth/college
B) Players that don't immediately thrive need specific, actionable areas of impact to grow early on to stick
C) More reps = more skill
D) Shooting ages well

Glad to see I'm not the only one seeing what I'm seeing!

Atkinson's new offensive scheme has entirely revitalized what looked to be a stagnating offense.

Great analysis from @jaredweissnba.bsky.social

As a footnote on the shooting:

There is also data to support the idea that shooters improve throughout their careers, and when you’re 6’1 - shooting is pretty necessary in 2024.

We’re likely witnessing a career-length improvement of all three.

He’s had increases in TS%, Win Shares, OBPM nearly every year, despite a consistent usage%, while limiting TO’s.

Based on the shot chart though, it looks to be:

A) the game itself changing.
B) him improving his shot selection.

As something of an epilogue, I'll never stop being amazed at the changing of league shot charts in the last decade.

See - Tyus Jones rookie season and this season (as per
@nbastatmuse.bsky.social :

All of this, plus his absurd Assist-to-Turnover ratio (39.7) makes him the perfect no-nonsense point guard for a team with a surplus of stars.

The Suns are only 11-8 so far, but they look way better than their record.

To think that this guy signed the minimum is crazy to me.

🧠 What do you think?

The Suns look like a different team this year, despite having very little time with their stars together.

They needed a traditional point guard to structure their offense.

Tyus fits the bill.

He doesn't need the rock to contribute. If they can cover him on defense, they'll be laughing.

But perhaps his most underrated attribute is as a cutter & mover.

Steph has made a name for himself as a track star, and Tyus has been taking notes.

I'd like to see him expand this, because he's an exceptionally efficient guard despite a low 16% usage rate on a roster with 3 stars.

So why is he so effective at the rim then, shouldn't the defense go under the pick?

That's where his best counter is: 3-point shooting.

He's shooting 39.3% from deep, including over 47% from above the break to the left - his favourite location above the break.

Defenses have to respect the jumper.

Speaking of the PnR, 56% of his at-rim finishes come that way, with the remainder nearly all coming off turnovers.

He uses the PnR so frequently that defenses almost always assume that's what he'll be doing - but his quickness enables him to make lazy defenses pay, like in this clip.

Well to start, Tyus has a seriously deep bag of tricks, with a hefty allotment of counters - but no skill outshines his floater.

He has one of the best floaters in the association, making his shot diet from 6-10' nothing to sneeze at as well... and it's particularly nasty out of the Pick & Roll.

kermit the frog is driving a car and says really ? Alt: kermit the frog is driving a car and says really ?

It's Tyus Jones, believe it or not.

Jones shoots an insane 79.4% at the rim, despite being just 6'1.

Not Embiid. Not Joker. Tyus frickin' Jones.

So what gives?