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17.10.2025 00:20 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0This is what you get for expressing certainty, Liam! People poke holes!
This was a pretty clear fourth down “go” situation, but I went into how or why you might disagree.
Every year our Total Points player value system seems to decide on its "guy" that is rated surprisingly well.
Bo Nix was its guy in 2024, ranking 6th in passing.
Through W9, he was 31st in EPA and 3rd in Total Points.
After W9, he was 2nd in EPA and 15th in Total Points.
Weird year.
This past weekend we presented at Saberseminar in Chicago - a look at a decade's worth of data on called strikes
- Which catchers get more than expected
- Which teams develop catchers best?
- How do pitchers/batters factor in?
- What about umpires?
READ:
www.sportsinfosolutions.com/2025/08/28/l...
Fun news from our football group!
We already had an Expected Points model, but it wasn't great at handling late-half (and especially late-game) situations.
So we built a new one, which does a LOT better in those spots.
Check out the writeup:
www.sportsinfosolutions.com/2025/08/13/a...
New Off The Charts football podcast episode with special guest @benjaminsolak.bsky.social
Ben and Bryce Rossler preview the NFC East.
Among the topics - What would make the Commanders the scariest team in the division?
+ plenty on Cowboys, Eagles, Giants
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/n...
Our play tracking came in handy here, as we tried to figure out who would have been the NFL Protector of the Year in 2024
www.sportsinfosolutions.com/2025/07/08/w...
One of the cool things about our data is that our out probabilities allow us to figure out the value of defensive positioning
@marksimon.bsky.social went looking for which players teams are the best at positioning against
READ: www.sportsinfosolutions.com/2025/06/05/w...
This feels like a time to shine for our offensive line metrics!
We'll definitely be reminding people to check out the metrics when awards season starts ramping up.
If you want a more complete list, you can check it out at www.sisdatahub.com/leaderboards/C
What sorts of things would you like to see from us (a sports analytics company) on this account?
Just wondering ... want to better serve our core audience.
Fun-ducational!
Come for the lack of schedule takesmanship, stay for my impressive performance in the game we played through the episode.
In recent drafts we don’t trade future first round picks even once.
Why on this night did we trade twice?
(Was that not the type of question we were talking about?)
🚨DRAFT DAY IS HERE🚨
Make sure to check out our Draft Matrix before the start of the Draft tonight‼️
The closest thing you will find to an NFL team's board! 😯
Draft Matrix⏬
hubs.la/Q03jGL_H0
#NFLDraft2025
Jeanty's overall projection is better than other players who have had similar profiles in terms of where they run and how they elude tackles.
That said, those similar players from the last five drafts have tended to underperform.
Also added some other names to watch based on their profiles.
I did a bunch of different dives into our Strike Zone Runs Saved metric, starting with just “who’s good”.
We’ll also be going into how much framing value has changed over time and to what extent the other actors (batter, pitcher, umpire) affect things, so stay tuned!
I did say that the ranks would be weird because we don’t have all the players in yet.
But if you want to get a mix of stats and scouting reports for a player this is going to be the place to be over the next few weeks.
Coolest things on here:
- The Draft Matrix, which visualizes the player pool as a team War Room would
- Stats you won't find anywhere else, like Pressure% +/-, Adjusted Tackle Depth +, Target Rate +/-, and Total Points Rating
Ranks will be weird for now b/c we haven't added everyone yet.
So easy to get scooped between recording and publishing this time of year, but still some good info on a bunch of notable players.
Big names available at WR, but I’ll be keeping an eye on the CB group the most I think.
Patrick Mahomes, in red #15 jersey and red helmet with white pants, holds the football in front of him with his right hand as he runs to his right
The Chiefs are the best team in the NFL at converting 3rd-and- '4 to 7' yards to go into first downs (doing so on either 3rd or 4th down)
In these 3rd-and-medium situations, they do a designed run 1% of the time. The other 99% is Patrick Mahomes passing or scrambling.
Popular topic of discussion the last 2 weeks:
Does the Chiefs offense get favorable treatment from officiating crews?
Rather than just make a blanket statement, we studied the data
Here's what we found:
READ: www.sportsinfosolutions.com/2025/02/06/w...
Anything missed call related we can't do, at least not quickly :)
Both PHI and KC were a little below avg in illegal formation rate. Taylor had T-3rd-most such penalties.
Across the '22 and '23 KC/PHI matchups, Chiefs O was penalized above its average and Eagles O was penalized below its average.
From the statistical impact of Landon Dickerson and Brandon Graham to the value of Hollywood Brown's return, we've got that and all the other Super Bowl injury storylines covered.
Brett Barnes runs through all the numbers and situations
READ:
www.sportsinfosolutions.com/2025/01/30/e...
Started with schematic research for this week's NFL games, ended up with a bigger conclusion:
Most tendency / scheme mismatches that you see—Team A is great at X, Team B is bad defending X—aren't often predictive of the upcoming game.
A good starting point for discussion and film study though!
"He was the hardest-working superstar I ever played with."
"He was like a handball player. The ball was hit and he knew where it would go."
"He threw with every inch of his body, from his toes to the tip of his cap to his fingertips."
On Ichiro Suzuki's defensive legacy
"That is where McVay and the Rams will have their best chance to take advantage of Dean’s absence. Zone-running schemes are built around setting up cut-back lanes to take advantage of over-pursuing LBs."
A look at how the Rams may attack the Nakobe Dean-less Eagles D
This one's for those of you who LOVE talking x's and o's
@btrossler breaks down every playoff team's offensive scheme
What they do, what they do best, much more analysis
READ:
www.sportsinfosolutions.com/2025/01/10/c...
New Off the Charts!
The crew breaks down all the QB/defense matchups, coaching chess piece maneuverings and injuries in this weekend's NFL playoff games.
Not as much as I would have thought!
If you take the sum of run blocking Points Above Average on their carries (thru W17), the totals are virtually the same, and all above average.
Henry's is the lowest, but by a few points over the season.
We can definitely go nerdier and more dispassionate; challenge accepted!
23.12.2024 23:10 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0Yeah, that’s honestly just a little semantic thing. It’s really just a player missing a game to injury (“losing” the game).
So if a player missed 8 games and averaged 2 Total Points per game in the year prior, the team would have lost 16 points for that injury.
