Tomasz Woźniak

The predictive intervals do not contain the current cash rate value, but they include a 25bp cut. The forecast mean suggests a 15bp decrease.

My forecasts are available at: forecasting-cash-rate.github.io

This time they will, right? 🤖👾 The markets are right in their assessment that the cash rate is on a downward-sloping trajectory. Last month’s decision to HOLD does not contradict this. Unsurprisingly, this month, similarly to July, my predictions indicate a CUT. 👽🚀

#cashrate #forecasting #rstats

#MarchForHumanity 🇵🇸

It’ll take lots of efforts to convince me away from LaTeX! But I’m 💯 in for LaTeX in quarto! (or rticles) I’ll just admit that it’s so difficult to make quarto slides look pretty… what a shame. The more than my beamer slides for teaching are, well, arts! Seriously!

Writing lecture notes in Quarto during missile attack in Kyiv underground

#AcademicLife in Ukraine: preparing for lectures at night during a massive missile attack on Kyiv in an overcrowded underground station
#EconSky #UkrainianView #RStats

Absolutely massive turnout from people of Sydney marching over Sydney Harbour Bridge calling for an immediate ceasefire and end to the genocide in Gaza. March so big NSW Police have now turned us around back over the bridge.. #freepalestine

American journalist, historian, and author Anne Applebaum on the West's biggest mistake in Russia's war against #Ukraine:

"The West doesn't understand the extremism of Putinism. They keep imagining that there's a deal to be done, that if we just give Crimea to Russia, then he'll stop fighting.⤵️

Indeed, and with great benefit to their citizens who were looking for protection from aggressive russia 🙃

Pretty cool anyways! I agree, there’s only as much as one can do in one semester. The basics of project management is already a lot. I introduced some collaborative features, peer feedback on the repo contents, and it was great! It’s just that one has to teach all that. yes, please with the syllabus

Take care, Dariia! And also, your students are so lucky to have you as a teacher! 👩‍🏫 are you also working or teaching website deployment on GH? My master students loved this, but I’m not sure if it’s not too much for undergrads (given everything else in the subject) 🤩 I’m just curious 👀

Giovanni has just issued a package on scenario analysis based on our bsvars and bsvarSIGNs packages 🤩 check it out! 🎉

I was encouraging Giovanni to issue the package and he did it! Yay!

Very cool! Tagging @adamwang15.bsky.social

YouTube video by Kyiv Independent Trump’s Russia ultimatum and controversial investigation | Ukraine This Week

In the latest episode of Ukraine This Week, the Kyiv Independent’s Anna Belokur breaks down the ultimatum issued by U.S. President Donald Trump that Russia must reach a peace deal with Ukraine within 50 days or risk severe economic consequences.

See other papers of these authors from these times to look up one with Xs 😎

That’s the one I read back in the days 🥳 doi.org/10.1016/j.je...

It all depends ofc and there are quite old papers about it 🤩

Yeah, but it’s also very smart. Especially if you think about that it was proposed already in 1984 based on the best forecasting practices at the time. I explain it here (I suggest reading the whole stuff to get the thing right) dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467... 🤩

Hey, there are two upcoming Workshops for Ukraine in this topic: Efficient R…, and mine Intro to C++… both will be quite complementary and super useful together 🤩

🚀 When did that happen?! ✨ Packages bsvars and bsvarSIGNs have reached 2️⃣0️⃣K downloads on CRAN!

Thank you so much, everybody! ❤️💛

bsvars.org

#bsvars.org #bsvars #bsvarSIGNs #rstats #econsky

The program is:

Dariia Mykhailyshyna - Workshops for Ukraine Feedback on the past workshops (if you want to learn how to make wordclouds, check out Text Data Analysis workshop below)

Register following the instructions at: sites.google.com/view/dariia-...

Intro to C++ programming for R applications for Econometricians Date: Thursday, September 25th, 18:00 - 20:00 CEST (Rome, Berlin, Paris timezone) Speaker: Tomasz Woniak is a Bayesian econometrician developing new econometric methods for applied macroeconomic research. He has been a specialised R user for seventeen years, and has recently joined The R Journal as an Associate Editor. He is the author of several R packages, available at https://bsvars.org/, that combine blazingly fast algorithms written in C++ with the convenience of data analysis in R. He works as a senior lecturer at the University of Melbourne, where he has an extensive research, teaching, and engagement portfolio. He is also an external collaborator at the International Labour Organization, where he develops a new forecasting system and an R package.

Hey! Save the date as my new presentation for fantastic 🇺🇦Workshops for Ukraine 🇺🇦 by @dariia.bsky.social is coming up on Sep 25! And it's about:

💙 Intro to C++ programming for R applications for Econometricians 💛

Nice! ❤️🇺🇦

#IsupportUkraine #UKR #rstats #econometrics #Rcpp #RcppArmadillo #econsky

Our packages delegate all computational tasks to C++ code. all time-intensive tasks are implemented in C++: estimation and forecasting, ofc. But with Bayesian multivariate dynamic structural non-linear models even simple tasks take time. so impulse responses etc. are implemented in C++ too... and all of them have R wrappers

🦘bsvars.org design concept pt. 4 🐨

🐋 Once you work with Bayesian structural dynamic non-linear system modelling everything takes a while! So, we delegate EVERYTHING to much faster C++ code! 🦈

🌐 bsvars.org

#bsvars.org #bsvars #bsvarSIGNs #cpp #rstats

I just love this kind of questions! 🤦‍♀️

This time it predicted a decisive CUT but the RBA kept the cash rate at the current level. That's OK!

After another cut, I'll write more about the mid-to-long-term trajectories for cash rate.

In the meantime, enjoy my gif 💜 💙

✨ This is to celebrate a 12-correctly-predicted-decision streak for my forecasting system... that is now over! 🤣

⭐ My system predicted previous twelve decisions right, which reaches back to November 2023! ⭐

forecasting-cash-rate.github.io

#cashrate #forecasting #rstats #econsky

OK I’m posting another one 🤩

Let's try once more!

Thanks!