Andy Kowalczyk

Here comes the sun in MISO....

Big jump in the record solar production for MISO today. Hit 20% of total demand, besting wind. I've not seen it surpass fossil gas yet, but I'm betting that happens this spring.

#EnergySky

US utility-scale wind & solar is on track to reach 430 GW by November 2028.

That's up 28%!

Small solar is ~58 GW now and will add another ~21 GW by 11/2028.

So, total W&S capacity will be ~509 GW by 11/2028!

Petrostate politicos are losing the war on W&S.
cms.ferc.gov/media/energy... #energysky

A silver lining is that at least it appears we won't have any forced outages in MISO.

Boy howdy the gap between wind / solar with only ~600MW's of storage is rough to look at in MISO.

#energysky

Temps are going to be even lower tonight than last week in the South, getting down to 18F in Northern MS, where currently outages from ice last week are leaving over 60k people without power still with little more than blankets to keep them warm💔.

#energysky

Interesting intertie stuff:

ERCOT: Welsh Eastern DC Tie into NW LA has been dispatching at max (600MW's) into SPP all day.

MISO: About 5GWs

- SPP 900MWs at peak
- Manitoba Hydro
- SOCO ~1GW all day
- PJM looks like they get wind, but not solar from MISO looking at the shape

#energysky

MISO - 10% solar before sunset, ~12% wind and climbing tonight

SPP - ~30% wind and climbing tonight

#energysky

Temps in the low 20's-30's in the South and renewables holding it down again today:

Texas (ERCOT) - ~50% solar! v. ~30% gas, with batteries dispatching earlier at ~ 6GWs

#energysky

How desperate 🤦

However, LMP's show constraints related to getting this power where it needs to go, and in MISO, price separation continues to show there's a MISO South market and a MISO North Market, but not really a MISO Market... #energysky

Aside from the persistent outages in LA, MS and TN, things were mostly back to normal today on the grid, with another big showing from solar and storage in ERCOT (once again solar outperformed nat gas for a good chunk today), great wind and solar in MISO, and lower wind in SPP. #energysky

It could be that since the May 25th loadshed event, ops is prioritizing MISO South to a greater extent and reducing imports from MISO South - but this is speculation #energysky

Interesting flows going south over the last day in any case.

~1k to SOCO from MISO
~600 to SPP from ERCOT (to N LA)

Tuesday, and outages still number close to half a million in TX, LA, MS and TN as temps start to thaw.

Temps will plummet this weekend too however, and MISO has already declared a Capacity Advisory for this Friday in the North of the footprint. www.misoenergy.org/markets-and-...

#energysky

Spanish electricity grid reaches 85.7% saturation after 2.8 GW loss Spain’s electricity grid has lost nearly 2.8 GW of available capacity in two months, lifting substation saturation to 85.7% and leaving more than 5,200 facilities without spare capacity, according to new analysis.

Spanish electricity grid reaches 85.7% saturation after losing 2.8 GW of capacity in two months #energysky -- via pv magazine global:

I get the sense we’re missing out on something or somethings in the EU 🤔

The efforts of 'More than 65,000 mutual assistance workers from at least 43 states and Canada' engaged in utility mutual assistance has helped to stem the tide of outages, but much work lies ahead.

www.eei.org/mutual-assis...

Winter Storm Fern Turns Deadly | Weather.com Impacts from this storm are expanding. Here's what we know right now.

In North Louisiana it's also proved fatal with 5 lost to the storm weather.com/news/weather...

Really dangerous situation for residents throughout these areas.

FEMA has arrived in MS where the storm has claimed two lives www.clarionledger.com/live-story/w...

Entergy LA and MS's system got really hard by Fern, as did TVA's. At this time I have not heard of loadshed in either territory so it seems likely that this is probably heavy distribution damage from ice loading. #energysky

Winter storm batters electric utilities in the Southeast Bitter cold in the coming days could affect Appalachian natural gas producers as a broad swath of the U.S. shivers in the blast of Arctic air.

www.eenews.net/articles/win...

#winterstormfern #energysky

A Million Households Face Outages During Winter Storm #energysky -- via Heatmap News heatmap.news/am/wint...

Temps mostly under 40F degrees and solar serving almost 40% of demand, while batteries are charging at about 3.5GW's in ERCOT. #energysky

Currently ERCOT is serving more load with solar than natural gas

25,207MW's of solar vs. 23,787MW's of gas

The average price in ERCOT is currently ~$23

#energysky

ERCOT is putting up some interesting numbers on storage!

Earlier Today: 7.5GWs! around 8am
Yesterday: just shy of 2GW dispatch in the AM, and about 1.5 in the evening and charging overnight

Big numbers for solar and wind later today. Currently solar @17,812 MW(24.0% of the mix) #energysky

LMP maps in SPP and MISO show price separation between the North and South. Both footprints show wind picking up, but also a lot of solar in MISO.

SPP - ~10GW's
MISO - 14.1GW wind, 9GWs solar

#energysky

YouTube video by WKRN News 2 TVA crews working to restore power across the state

TVA is doing what they to restore power, but report that there have been issues with ice loading on transmission. Otherwise they are saying that the system is functioning well.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqA-...
#energysky

With subzero temps as far south as Jefferson, MO, and freezing temps all the way down to NOLA, outages are still around 800k in the South.

SWEPCO and Entergy maps show a lot of the same outages, likely from ice + sustained freezing temps.

#energysky

MISO is only pulling about 1GW total across all interties, mostly with PJM currently.

ERCOT's DC ties are pulling about 500MW's from the east, mostly from SPP after doing the opposite while the sun was out (duck-curve related?) #energysky

Another bright spot is that wind is forecast to be up later this evening into tomorrow, and solar as well (almost double what it was today). Same deal in ERCOT (already starting to see the strain there though on the LMP map) #energysky