Andrew Papenheim

a scenario for *you* to contemplate, speculator friend. not a court trying to determine if illegal tariffs are illegal. it is irrelevant to that question. however what a relief it is that you need not wire the European Commission trillions of dollars.

while it is certainly a scenario that could be contemplated, the long end selling off in event the illegal tariffs are illegal (and stonks bid on improved growth outlook) you cannot argue in a court of law that the US is "forced to pay back trillions of dollars" as that is straightforwardly untrue

Blackstone’s BREIT hole keeps growing ‘Closing in on max loss’

"juggernaut real estate fund" losing boatloads of money www.ft.com/content/1d65...

apparently other people read into that a motive far different than i did

when i heard someone undertook rampage violence against BREIT (and before it was apparent this was about gridiron football) the first thing i said was "i thought they ungated redemptions"

I would really strongly advise staying well away from the “let’s shake down the banks” subplot

I'd go short Bessent making it to the end at this point. He has accepted accountability for too many initiatives and set himself up to be discarded when one goes sideways. He may or may not have the ear of the US president but needs the instinct to disappear when he may be asked something unlawful.

I am being sent obsequious, amorphous blobs of cruft that I am wasting time close reading for the actual ask or personal attack that is supposed to be embedded in there only to find that they contain nothing of the sort as no one wrote it

I am tired

the output is adequately courteous – a lost art at the height of times where being righteously disgruntled has lost appropriate sanction – but familiar in a way i would not permit of my own family

Given that it took less than twenty years to go from the US to go from the GFC to whatever the hell it’s doing now, I think it’s fair to say those who endured the GFC weren’t as scarred by it as the narrative would have you believe

🔴 Trump extends China tariff deadline by 90 days - CNBC.

wasn't this supposed to be done on friday. are people getting refunds or

you have to revoke this (rulings.cbp.gov/ruling/N351466) and revise this (www.federalregister.gov/d/2025-06063...)

that's great man but you have to actually zero-rate the HS codes and revoke the decision letter

i recall the interview with becky quick about the supposed payments in these unwritten agreements clarifying that "there are no details" and that he seems to be under the impression "i can do anything i want" last mon– oh was that a week– six days, that was six days ago

again, why isn't the IP in luxembourg or an antille already

this has all been so thoroughly optional

In personal news, I have decided I like a caloric beverage. 1642 pink grapefruit tonic water. It is properly bitter, it is properly grapefruit. Excellent with herbal gins or tequila, or not, that is fine too. Truly refreshing to have precisely one of in the oppressive heat of the evening.

The rise of America’s intangible economy Investments in non-physical assets demystify the US stock market’s performance

yep. hard to account for, often unaccounted. explains lg-cap us equity, explains the grandees unconcerned w/ high and unstable import taxes (not much for thinking ahead…), explains metropolitan housing going bananas. stock market is not the economy, but it is an irreal market *and* an irreal economy

all *kinds* of reasons it cannot happen but for those of us risk-averse, not skilled at buying real estate, with little desire to learn (hi) wouldn't it be nice to swap a house in-kind for shares of Aggregate Houses and hedge the geographic and typologic concentration

man i *wish* ishares sold the shiller 20-city composite

that's so much better than buying a house

thank goodness the states made reputational risk illegal by executive fiat

or someone really could have blown it there

😂 one great contrarian view on the voguish push to unload esoteric, illiquid products on retail is that they haven’t the faintest idea what is going on and next thing your firm is getting blamed for a bunch of their imaginary problems like “blackrock” bidding up homes

The other thing that sucks is that vanguard is basically the most pro-normal person company in existence and its somehow in here

The ultimate business moat is bribing the president.

decision-makers just lining up for "i am going to domicile in the united states, where i will be subject to an arbitrary and unconstitutional export tax" 🤪

at what point is the strong preference for picking winners and losers and unprecedented level of self-dealing indistinguishable from a criminal organization

and needless to say it invites one to ask how many women in finance have had their lives made intolerable and good work impeded by his behaviour all these years :/ hardly an unimaginable cultural problem

would be nice if i kept knowing people for their good work rather than their beef of the week yes – but would *really* be nice if tiresome beefs stopped transcending, consuming a person, into something entirely objectionable like this.

yep. i knew these people to be highly competent at their work and it is certainly not my place to deny them having public lives beyond the bounds of their work. it is good that it does not get less galling, the too-familiar nausea that one you respect professionally is disgraces himself privately.