Lightbucket

5/5

Refs (contd.):

Onshore Wind: www.renewableuk.com/energypulse/...
Solar PV: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_p...
Remote Island Wind: www.ofgem.gov.uk/sites/defaul...

4/5

Refs:

Capacity Awarded: Commons Library researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CB...

⸻
Capacity factors are based on historic UK data:

Offshore Wind: energynumbers.info/uk-offshore-...
Nuclear: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5c9a5d...

3/5

The technology with the largest awarded capacity is offshore wind, both by nameplate capacity and effective capacity.

Nuclear, with just the one CfD project, Hinkley Point C, is second if capacity factor is taken into account.

Onshore Wind has greater effective awarded capacity than Solar PV.

A chart of the capacity of projects awarded CfDs, by technology, for the five highest capacity technologies, showing the nameplate capacity and the effective capacity when the capacity factor is taken into account. The data includes all CfD auctions up to AR6.

2/5

Here's the total capacity of projects awarded CfDs, by technology.

The chart shows both the awarded nameplate capacity and the effective capacity when the capacity factor is taken into account.

All CfD auction rounds up to and including AR6 (outcome Sept. 2024) are included.

👇

UK's Seventh CfD Allocation Round Launched The UK government has launched this year's Contracts for Difference (CfD) Allocation Round 7 (AR7), with the application window open until 27 August.

1/5

With Allocation Round 7 of the UK's Contracts for Difference scheme kicking off,
here's some more background info about the CfD scheme.

This time I'll look at the total generating capacity with CfDs for the five largest technology types (by nameplate capacity awarded).

🧵

Impact of CfD costs on domestic electricity bills A graph showing the CfD allowance under the direct debit price cap for typical annual consumption of 2,700 kWh. Excludes VAT. The graph shows half yearly figures, and later data for quarters, but it refers to costs if that rate were to apply across a whole year. Source: Ofgem, Energy price cap (default tariff): 1 October to 31 December 2024, Annex 2 – Wholesale cost allowance methodology v1.18

9/9

What's the cost of CfDs to consumers?

The CfD allowance added about £100 to an "average" (2700 kWh/yr) domestic electricity bill between Apr. 2019 and Dec. 2024.
That's 2.9% of the bill, or about £17/yr.
👇

⸻
Ref: Commons Library researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CB...

CfD generation by technology A chart showing CfD generation by technology, in terawatt-hours per year, for the years 2016 to 2023. CfD generation is dominated by offshore wind. CfD generation peaked at 22 TWh in 2020, then fell slightly in the following three years due to falling output from biomass plants. (Most solar CfD projects have intended delivery years from 2024 onwards). Source: LCCC, Actual CfD Generation and avoided GHG emissions dataset

8/9

Electricity generation financed by CfD contracts reached a peak at 22 TWh in 2020 (7% of total generation), then fell slightly due to falling output from biomass plants.
CfD generation is dominated by offshore wind:

⸻
Ref: Commons Library researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CB...

Gas sets UK electricity prices far more often than elsewhere in Europe. A chart showing the share of hours where gas sets the wholesale price of electricity in the UK and selected other European countries. Gas sets the wholesale price of electricity in the UK 98% of the time, far more than elsewhere in Europe. CarbonBrief. Source: Zakeri and Staffell, 2023.

7/9

CfD levy payments from electricity suppliers are still positive most of the time, and CfD prices in aggregate are generally still above the wholesale market price of electricity.

The market price of electricity in the UK is set by gas 98% of the time: 👇

www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-wh...

Reconciliation of Q4 2021 payments sees CfD portfolio paying back to electricity suppliers Low Carbon Contracts Company. Posted 12.01.2022 While Q3 2021 saw the first day and week of net negative generator payments, 2022 starts with another milestone for the CfD scheme: the first quarter the scheme will return money to electricity suppliers. Under the Contracts for Difference (CfD) scheme, CfD generators have, to date, received top-up payments to the strike price they are paid for the low-carbon electricity they generate. This has had a huge impact on diversifying and increasing investment in renewable power since 2014, as the CfD has helped to stabilise what generators earn, whilst auctions for the contracts have brought down the cost of this power for consumers. However, the scheme is designed to work two ways, with CfD generators paying money back when market prices rise beyond their strike price. Hence the CfD not only gives investors confidence but also acts as a hedge for consumers, as we have seen in the current market. Given the high wholesale prices during the latter half of 2021, Low Carbon Contracts Company (LCCC) reduced the CfD interim levy rate (ILR) to £0/MWh in September – the first time this had ever happened. The first full week of net negative generator payments followed, during 8 – 14 September 2021. The ILR has remained at £0/MWh since 14 September 2021 and throughout the latest quarterly obligation period (QOP) of 1 September – 31 December 2021. Under the regulations governing the CfD, LCCC cannot set an ILR lower than £0/MWh. At the end of a quarter, the amount collected from generators is reconciled with suppliers. Any surplus funds are put toward the Total Reserve Amount (TRA) to be paid to LCCC for the next quarter, effectively reducing the amount suppliers have to pay. If the sum of the overcollection and the current TRA is higher than the next quarter’s TRA, the difference is returned to suppliers.

6/9

The first ever negative CfD payments, in Q3 2021, were featured in a press release from LCCC.

The Interim Levy Rate had a price floor of £0/MWh and couldn't go negative, so the money was returned to electricity suppliers after the end of the quarter.

www.lowcarboncontracts.uk/news/reconci...

CfD Historical Data - Further Information LCCC Glossary Intermittent market reference price (IMRP) - The market reference price that is used to calculate the CfD payments for intermittent generators each hour. Baseload market reference price (BMRP) - The market reference price that is used to calculate the CfD payments for baseload generators each hour. Interim Levy Rate (ILR) - A per MWh charge applied to suppliers to cover payments to renewable CfD generators in the relevant Quarterly Obligation Period. The ILR is set ahead of the quarter based on LCCC forecast of CfD Payments and Eligible Demand for the quarter. For moe information on specifics see "interim levy rate" within the CFD Supplier Obligation Regulations.

5/9

The LCCC operates two reference prices for CfD payment calculations,
an Intermittent Market Reference Price (IMRP) for intermittent generators, and
a Baseload Market Reference Price (BMRP) for baseload generators.

They're usually close to each other.

www.lowcarboncontracts.uk/resources/sc...

CfD Supplier Obligation Levy LCCC Electricity suppliers are required to fund the CfD scheme. They do this through the CfD Supplier Obligation Levy. We determine in advance what amount a supplier will need to pay in each quarter, and set the Levy accordingly. We are also required to collect a Reserve Amount from each electricity supplier, and this, like the Levy, is based on assumed levels of electricity generation. If assumptions change due to unforeseen events, we can reduce the Levy and the Total Reserve Amount, before or during a quarter. We publish all our quarterly assumptions in the levy dashboards.

4/9

All electricity suppliers must pay the Supplier Obligation Levy to finance CfD payments.

It is paid quarterly, but an Interim Levy Rate is set as a FORECAST levy per MWh for the quarter ahead, to enable daily pre-payments from suppliers.

⸻
LCCC: www.lowcarboncontracts.uk/our-schemes/...

A graph showing the CfD Interim Levy Rate and the Intermittent Market Reference Price for each Quarterly Obligation Period from Q2 2020 to Q4 2025. The ILR is the adjusted rate at the end of each quarter, the IMRP is the quarterly average price. The Intermittent Market Reference Price ranged between £129/MWh and £295/MWh during the gas price crisis of Q3 2021 to Q4 of 2022, when the Interim Levy Rate fell to zero. At other times the ILR has ranged between £24/MWh and £127/MWh.

3/9

Here's the same ILR data, with the Intermittent Market Reference Price (IMRP).

The IMRP is the reference price for CfD payments to intermittent generators.

CfD levy payments hit zero when the market price rose above ~ £130/MWh.

⸻
Ref: LCCC Dashboard www.lowcarboncontracts.uk/resources/sc...

A graph showing the CfD Interim Levy Rate for each Quarterly Obligation Period from Q2 2020 to Q4 2025. It shows the adjusted rate at the end of each quarter. The ILR ranged from about £5/MWh to £12/MWh over this period, except during the gas price crisis from Q3 2021 to Q4 2022, when it was at zero.

2/9

Here's the the Interim Levy Rate (ILR), the amount paid per MWh by all electricity suppliers to fund CfD payments. 👇

The ILR is currently £8.81/MWh, but it hit zero from Q3 2021 to Q4 2022, during the gas price crisis.

⸻
Ref: EMR Settlement www.emrsettlement.co.uk/settlement-d...

1/9

The Application Window for Allocation Round 7 of the UK's Contracts for Difference scheme for low carbon electricity opened yesterday.

The CfD scheme is run by the Low Carbon Contracts Company (LCCC) and the Electricity Settlements Company.

Here's how CfD payments have worked out to date:

🧵

UK ministers push ahead with discount on bills for households near new pylons Plans have provoked outrage from communities in areas of Great Britain expected to host new infrastructure

❝ Under the plan, local people could receive a £125 discount every six months as the UK prepares to build twice as much new power grid infrastructure over the next five years as it has built in the past decade.❞

How high are interest rates across the G20 right now? 💰

This mid-year snapshot from Aneesh Anand shows how major economies are responding to inflation, slowing growth, and rising trade tensions: https://www.voronoiapp.com/economy/The-G20-Cost-of-Money-6122

Spain rules out buying F-35, choosing between Eurofighter or FCAS Spain is no longer considering the option of buying U.S.-made F-35 fighter jets and is choosing between European-made Eurofighter and the so-called Future Combat Air System (FCAS), a defence ministry spokesperson said on Wednesday.

❝ El Pais newspaper had reported earlier on Wednesday the government had shelved plans to buy the F-35, which is manufactured by U.S. aerospace giant Lockheed Martin.❞

4/4

The five power plants with significant losses due to high river temperatures are Blayais, Bugey, Golfech, St.-Alban and Tricastin.

Chooz, uniquely, has losses due to flow constraints,
arising from an agreement with Belgium governing the waters of the river Meuse.

A graph showing production losses of nuclear electricity in France for the years 2000-Aug. 2022, by power plant, for losses attributed to high temperatures and flow constraints in rivers. All the production losses are attributed to high temperatures, except Chooz, whose losses are wholly due to flow constraints. Nuclear power plants and their production losses, 2000 - Aug. 2022, in GWh: Belleville: 0.15 GWh Blayais: 2135 GWh Bugey: 4394 GWh Cattenom: 0 GWh Chinon: 32 GWh Chooz: 5644 GWh Civaux: 0.027 GWh Cruas: 8.6 GWh Dampierre: 113 GWh Fessenheim: 294 GWh Flamanville: 9.5 GWh Golfech: 2116 GWh Gravelines: 0.49 GWh Nogent: 0 GWh Paluel: 0 GWh Penly: 0 GWh St.-Alban: 5047 GWh Saint Laurent: 0 GWh Tricastin: 4272 GWh

3/4 (…contd.)

…and here's a breakdown of production losses from French nuclear power arranged by power plant,
for 2000 – Aug. 2022. 👇

⸻
Ref: Cour des Comptes, March 2023, Table 20, p.116
www.vie-publique.fr/files/rappor...

2/2

⸻
Ref: Cour des Comptes, March 2023, Table 19, p.115

A graph showing production losses of nuclear electricity in France for the years 2000-2022, for losses attributed to high temperatures and flow constraints in rivers. Year and lost production in GWh 2000: 1075.855 GWh 2001: 219.975 GWh 2002: 71.289 GWh 2003: 6318.255 GWh 2004: 931.802 GWh 2005: 2690.211 GWh 2006: 2139.515 GWh 2007: 2.915 GWh 2008: 80.919 GWh 2009: 86.329 GWh 2010: 126.401 GWh 2011: 743.728 GWh 2012: 177.191 GWh 2013: 170.113 GWh 2014: 79.173 GWh 2015: 665.068 GWh 2016: 53.81 GWh 2017: 643.803 GWh 2018: 2734.391 GWh 2019: 1448.293 GWh 2020: 3101.735 GWh 2021: 4.95 GWh 2022: 501.351 GWh

1/2

Nuclear power shutdowns in France, caused by high river temperatures, are in the news.

Here's a breakdown of power losses by year for 2000–2022.

24 TWh of electricity production was lost due to high river temperatures over 23 years,
about 0.25% of nuclear generation,
or 119 MW average power.👇

A graph showing the CfD Strike Price by Technology, for all 12 technology types with CfDs. UK electricity generation: Most recent CfD Technology Type and Allocation Round, and the CfD Strike Price (£/MWh, 2012 prices) Advanced Conversion Technologies, AR3: £41.61/MWh Energy from Waste (with CHP), AR4: £45.99/MWh Solar PV, AR6: £50.07/MWh Onshore Wind, AR6: £50.90/MWh Remote Island Wind, AR5: £52.29/MWh Offshore Wind AR6: £58.87/MWh Nuclear, Bespoke: £89.50/MWh Biomass Conversion, Investment Contract: £105.00/MWh Geothermal, AR5: £119.00/MWh Dedicated Biomass, Investment Contract: £125.00/MWh Floating Offshore Wind, AR6: £139.93/MWh Tidal Stream, AR6: £172.00/MWh

6/6

Here are all twelve technology types with CfDs, with the strike prices for the most recent CfD awarded in each case (in 2012 prices).

Onshore Wind is among the cheapest, Floating Offshore Wind is among the most expensive.

5/6

Refs (continued):

AR5: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/64fa04...
AR6: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/66d6ad...
AR7/AR7a ASP: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6880d6...
CfD Register: register.lowcarboncontracts.uk

4/6

Refs:

AR1 ASP: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a7ee0...
AR1 results: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a7ffb...
AR2: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a82ef...
AR3: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5f566a...
AR4: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65b146...

Contracts for Difference for UK Floating Offshore Wind, showing the strike price and the Administrative Strike Price for each Allocation Round (in 2012 prices). Strike prices range from £87.30 per megawatt-hour in the fourth Allocation Round to £139.93 per megawatt-hour in the sixth Allocation Round. The Administrative Strike Price for the seventh Allocation Round has been set at £194 per megawatt-hour.

Contracts for Difference for UK Remote Island Wind, showing the strike price and the Administrative Strike Price for each Allocation Round (in 2012 prices). Strike prices range from £39.65 per megawatt-hour in the third Allocation Round to £52.29 per megawatt-hour in the fifth Allocation Round. The Administrative Strike Price for the seventh Allocation Round has been set at £66 per megawatt-hour.

Contracts for Difference for UK Tidal Stream, showing the strike price and the Administrative Strike Price for each Allocation Round (in 2012 prices). Strike prices range from £178.54 per megawatt-hour in the fourth Allocation Round to £172.00 per megawatt-hour in the sixth Allocation Round. The Administrative Strike Price for the seventh Allocation Round has been set at £266 per megawatt-hour.

Contracts for Difference for UK Advanced Conversion Technologies, showing the strike price and the Administrative Strike Price for each Allocation Round (in 2012 prices). Strike prices range from £119.89 per megawatt-hour in the first Allocation Round to £41.61 per megawatt-hour in the third Allocation Round. The Administrative Strike Price for the seventh Allocation Round has been set at £220 per megawatt-hour.

3/6

…and here are some of the smaller technologies (…those with enough data points to plot a graph, anyway):

• Floating Offshore Wind again,
• Remote Island Wind,
• Tidal Stream and
• Advanced Conversion Technologies.

Contracts for Difference for UK Offshore Wind, showing the strike price and the Administrative Strike Price for each Allocation Round (in 2012 prices). Strike prices range from £119.89 per megawatt-hour in the first Allocation Round to £58.87 per megawatt-hour in the sixth Allocation Round. The Administrative Strike Price for the seventh Allocation Round has been set at £81 per megawatt-hour.

Contracts for Difference for UK Solar PV, showing the strike price and the Administrative Strike Price for each Allocation Round (in 2012 prices). Strike prices range from £50.00 per megawatt-hour in the first Allocation Round to £50.07 per megawatt-hour in the sixth Allocation Round. The Administrative Strike Price for the seventh Allocation Round has been set at £54 per megawatt-hour.

Contracts for Difference for UK Onshore Wind, showing the strike price and the Administrative Strike Price for each Allocation Round (in 2012 prices). Strike prices range from £79.23 per megawatt-hour in the first Allocation Round to £50.90 per megawatt-hour in the sixth Allocation Round. The Administrative Strike Price for the seventh Allocation Round has been set at £66 per megawatt-hour.

Contracts for Difference for UK Floating Offshore Wind, showing the strike price and the Administrative Strike Price for each Allocation Round (in 2012 prices). Strike prices range from £87.30 per megawatt-hour in the fourth Allocation Round to £139.93 per megawatt-hour in the sixth Allocation Round. The Administrative Strike Price for the seventh Allocation Round has been set at £194 per megawatt-hour.

2/6

Twelve technology types have obtained CfDs.
Here are the strike prices and ASPs for the three technology types with the highest awarded capacity,

• Offshore Wind,
• Solar PV and
• Onshore Wind.

along with Floating Offshore Wind, which is small now, but there's a hope/intention to grow it.

1/6

The Application Window for Allocation Round 7 of the UK's Contracts for Difference scheme for low carbon electricity opens this week (7th Aug.).

Here are the strike prices and Administrative Strike Prices (i.e. the price caps for the auctions) for all the previous Allocation Rounds.

🧵

…why did he go for 2889 rather than 1989? He’d have been quite a lot nearer the money with the latter.

One regulatory change I'd like to see around AI is the requirement that it has to tell you it's AI if you directly ask it.

Hard code that shit in and do not let anyone running a chatbot prompt their way out of it... or face massive fines.

A graph of overnight construction costs versus commercial operation date for nuclear units in China, the United States and France. Text: Costly Construction China has managed to rein in the expenses associated with commercial nuclear units. US nuclear costs rose sharply, in particular after the Three Mile Island accident in 1979, owing to a lack of standardization, rising labour and material costs and stricter regulations. In France, costs also increased as the country moved to larger and more complex reactor designs. Source: Analysis by S. Liu at al. Nature.

2/2

❝ Whereas construction costs increased substantially between the 1960s and 2000s, by around tenfold in the United States and by nearly twofold in France, they had halved in China by the early 2000s and have remained largely stable since.❞