Future Smart Strategies™

Gas and high coal penetration the drivers of expensive, volatile power prices

Renewable penetration above 40% brings lowest volume-weighted prices
reneweconomy.com.au/gas-and-high... @reneweconomy.com.au

Here's some 5 minute data 40ct25-110ct25 to add to the mix

Gosh, what could be putting downward pressure on oil? Fossil fuel decline can only be a sign of a recession coz the world couldn't possibly be decoupling from oil?

Global monthly electric vehicle sales surpass 2M units for first time, #EVs sales growth YTD of 26%
rhomotion.com/news/record-...

If this is the fastest energy transition in human history, why would it slow down?

Latest from @iea.org shows solar *not* tripling from 2022 (per hi case scenario) www.iea.org/reports/rene...

Here's my model projection from 2017
And from 2025 (mostly as projected 2017)
Solar on track to triple

Well done, Australia, we've eradicated another species of mammal - only 80 more threatened mammal species to go

bsky.app/profile/prof...

"Grim death, how foul and loathsome is thine image"
The Taming of the Shrew, Shakespeare

If a firm like EY that provides services to government, but on behalf of a client creates disinformation that purports to be credible (AKA lies), thereby misleads govt policymakers, perverts national climate strategy to expand gas, delays energy transition, govt ought terminate contracts, ban firm

Dave Pope 2014

Toon: bilicki

“Science flies you to the moon.
Religion flies you into buildings.”
― Victor Stenger

Greed flies the fossil fuel lobby to Canberra*

*Insert preferred destination
- Washington
- Brussels
- London
- UNFCCC COPs
- wherever the game is played

The longer Australia defends sunk costs or resists regulatory change, the more costly the transition will be for both industry and Aus

Clinging to gas in the name of “affordability” or “transition” serves the gas and export lobby, and not Australia’s long-term economic or climate interests

H1 2025:
Wind generation grew 7.7% (to 1,365 TWh in 6 months)
Solar generation up 31% (to 1,303 TWh in H1)
@ember-energy.org

Solar generation close to overtaking wind generation

Battery dispatch will quickly catch up

Rising sea level from climate change a thing

But it's not the only thing

Among the other things, there's this extra big thing - moon wobble challenge in mid-2030s expected, and understood

www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07...
More
yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/08/when... @drjeffmasters.bsky.social

Meawhile, across the ditch in New Zealand:
NZ EVs sales continues to stagnate while hybrids dominate fuelled by MAGA lite government discontinued subsidies for electric vehicles and current RUC policies — apparently encouraged by Toyota lobbying

Only excuse for politicians who
- continue subsidies on costly fossil fuels
- think nuclear power is cheap
- claim clean energy is expensive
- want to end decarbonisation?

Idiots

Only idiots ignore the data
My model projections from 2018, and updated 2025
bsky.app/profile/prof...
#leastwrong

All new lamp posts installed ought have EVs charger capability

Critical: on-street #EVs charging must not disadvantage footpath users - walking, mobility-challenged, parents & pushers, kids on bikes

Meanwhile, self-supply boom-mounted EV charger trial in Australia
thedriven.io/2025/09/29/b...

Do you live in an area suited for wind and solar farms?

Put effort into getting organised in a co-operative, not on NIMBY protesting!

Form a co-op to ensure local community share of benefit, bring fair returns to farmers and local community when all participate
#renewables
bsky.app/profile/prof...

Spain's falling electricity price with renewables

Australia NEM sees same fall in volume weighted price
- Gas generation >6% share yields VWP mostly >$100
- Coal gen >55% share drives VWP, variability

- Renewables gen >47% share associated with lowest VWP (<$100)
www.linkedin.com/posts/raywil...

Australian vehicle sales
September 2025 VFACTs figures - 3Oct25

BEV 11.7%
PHEV + BEV 16.1%
Hybrid 18.7%
"Green" vehicles = 46.6% Australian sales
ICE only drive train share 53.4%

China now 3rd biggest sales in Australia
Chinese brands in top 10

SUVs 61% share of sales

bsky.app/profile/thed...

Australian values in no way aligned with values demonstrated daily from USA
Trump administration continuous malfeasance is to be admonished, not ignored
Failing to directly calling out poor behaviour is not pragmatism, it's betraying Australian values bsky.app/profile/prof...

A critical difference between vehicles with internal combustion engines vs electric motors is much lower complexity and lower cost to build EVs

Hybrid car makers saying 'we're gonna stick with more complex design and costly supply chain to build ICE'

@fssau.futuresmart.com.au

I hate the way this happens all the time, every year, for like decades and decades

Always happens - I climb out the window of my car while a van floats past

If I had a dollar for every time this happened to me, then watch out all those rich dudes

#climatechange 🧪
Flood in Culiacán, Mexico

Villa Pliniana Lake Como, Italy built by a natural spring in 1573

Torrential rains have swollen nearby streams, causing significant flooding, the spring now a waterfall

The Villa has flooded from time to time in the lower level, but no records of water reaching 2nd story, first time in 452 years

Australian PM Albanese speech to UN aligned with Labor's priorities (climate leadership, Ukraine + ME peace, UN engagement), stressed clean energy and cooperation, tied to needs of 'our Pacific family' and Asia, conflicting with Trump, but reinforcing Aus US ties?
www.youtube.com/live/BvPU559...

There is now extreme divergence from a science-denying crackpot-in-chief of the USA and the values that represents the RoW

Risks fracturing alliances and global progress

We need stronger critiques of USA' crackpot-in-chief while growing independent multilateral ties
bsky.app/profile/prof...

Progressive Green Solutions signs agreement with Thyssenkrupp for 100% off-take from Aus first large-scale green iron project in Geraldton in Western Australia

WA's renewable energy resources will power PGS' green hydrogen-based industrial ecosystem
www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...

If US becomes new Hitler and the world including China unites to fight fascists, will our #AUKUS submarines work?

Asking for a friend

21stC all about mobility, and flexibility - and not being fascists

Here's a $20bn budget made in Australia to defend Australia
bsky.app/profile/prof...

Electric CAT TransPerth bus, Perth, Western Australia

Electric CAT TransPerth bus, Perth, Western Australia

Not quite #caturday
My first electric CAT 🐈
TransPerth bus, #perth, Western Australia

Looks like a bus
Feels like a bus
The wheels on the bus go round and round, all the way to town
Just no diesel rattle and noise
Nor any diesel emissions

The future is electric

Each 1°C warming shifts mid-latitude climate belts >150km away from equator, toward poles

Closer to the poles means bigger shift

In WA, 2°C Margaret River and Karri Forest moves 300 km south

Oh, most wild species of plants, animals, other biota, live in 2°C temp range
bsky.app/profile/prof...

Australia’s first large scale solar-battery hybrid power plant at Cunderdin in Western Australia shines

Even at midnight

bsky.app/profile/prof...

The fastest energy transformation in human history

@fssau.futuresmart.com.au

expanded graph for pace of adoption of electricity generation by source from >100TWh annual generation threshold point

The next 5 years looks like this - here's my @fssau.futuresmart.com.au projections for wind and solar and batteries to 2030
bsky.app/profile/prof...
More below

In swap from fossil fuels to PV/ EVs/ clean tech, global total materials demand falls! 🤯
bsky.app/profile/prof...

21st century all about?
Mobility
Drones
AI
And the end of fireworks

Record-breaking drone show in Chongqing, China features 11,787 drones
youtu.be/ByBd56w62qY?...