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LeRaffl

@leraffl.bsky.social

Math dude, doing math with BEV market shares https://ts.la/raphael59773

1,209 Followers  |  88 Following  |  2,030 Posts  |  Joined: 30.10.2023  |  1.585

Latest posts by leraffl.bsky.social on Bluesky

Slovenia has been accelerating their BEV transition quote a bit in the last year, almost cutting the 20-80 time in half at this point.

31.01.2026 13:07 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Very good December for BEV in Slovenia.

31.01.2026 13:06 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Post image

๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Slovenia - December 25 - BEV Trajectory
20.0% BEV
3.9% PHEV
76.1% ICE (of which 14.6%p were HEV)

Trailing 12 months are:
11.2% BEV
3.4% PHEV
85.4% ICE (of which 12.8%p were HEV)

Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

31.01.2026 13:06 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 2

Go to the Builder tab on the gallery. You can create joint curves over there by yourself.
You can add countries together the way you desire.

31.01.2026 12:56 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

The green HEV bar is slightly growing still, but ever since the federal tax credit incentive ended, both PHEV and BEV took a hit.

31.01.2026 12:54 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

The USA have slowed their BEV transition noticeably in recent days. You can also see in this transition time chart when the federal EV tax credits for BEV ended, which was at the exact moment their transition was about to pick up some speed again.

31.01.2026 12:52 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

The USA are doing really badly in terms of BEV transition. And no wonder, since they are controlled by Toyota who try and push HEV.

31.01.2026 12:50 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ USA - December 25 - BEV Trajectory
5.9% BEV
1.3% PHEV
92.8% ICE (of which 12.7%p were HEV)

Trailing 12 months are:
7.6% BEV
1.6% PHEV
90.7% ICE (of which 12.4%p were HEV)

Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

31.01.2026 12:48 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 4    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 3

Surprisingly stable trajectory for HDV battery electric vehicles in Thailand at this early point in the transition.

30.01.2026 18:32 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 5    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Still very early days

30.01.2026 18:31 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 5    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ญ Thailand (Heavy Duty Vehicles) - December 25 - BEV Trajectory
1.8% BEV
0.0% PHEV
98.2% ICE

Trailing 12 months are:
1.1% BEV
0.0% PHEV
98.9% ICE

Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

30.01.2026 18:29 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 8    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 2

Thailand has a very smooth transition to BEV

30.01.2026 18:24 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 5    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Thailand is already switching to BEV insanely fast and they even somehow manage to keep the pace and not slow down.

30.01.2026 18:23 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 10    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

BEV had a great December as is usual in Thailand. January will be weaker, as is their natural cycle, but damn... Thailand is doing well.

30.01.2026 18:22 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 6    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ญ Thailand - December 25 - BEV Trajectory
34.2% BEV
2.0% PHEV
63.8% ICE (of which 19.2%p were HEV)

Trailing 12 months are:
19.6% BEV
2.9% PHEV
77.5% ICE (of which 21.8%p were HEV)

Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

30.01.2026 18:20 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 18    ๐Ÿ” 4    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 6

The green HEV bar has not yet started to shrink.

28.01.2026 17:01 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 13    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Interestingly in the case of Slovakia, the recent speed up towards BEV didn't really have an influence on PHEV. It came from ICE instead.

28.01.2026 17:00 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 10    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Like is the current general global trend now, Slovakia is also accelerating their BEV transition right now.

28.01.2026 16:58 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 8    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Slovakia - December 25 - BEV Trajectory
6.0% BEV
5.6% PHEV
88.3% ICE (of which 39.7%p were HEV)

Trailing 12 months are:
4.7% BEV
4.4% PHEV
90.9% ICE (of which 34.5%p were HEV)

Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

28.01.2026 16:57 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 9    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 3

The market in Romania is dominated by HEV at the moment. HEV peak has not been reached yet it seems and acceleration towards BEV is not yet happening there.

28.01.2026 16:54 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 8    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Romania keeps slowing down their BEV transition. This is not the general global trend anymore.

28.01.2026 16:53 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 8    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด Romania - December 25 - BEV Trajectory
6.4% BEV
0.0% PHEV
93.6% ICE (of which 49.9%p were HEV)

Trailing 12 months are:
5.6% BEV
0.0% PHEV
94.4% ICE (of which 49.2%p were HEV)

Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

28.01.2026 16:51 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 7    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 2

Just like in so many places, HEV currently dominates Lithuania too. However, HEV share is now falling and things will continue onwards to PHEV and ultimately BEV.

28.01.2026 16:44 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 10    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Lithuania now seems tucked into acceleration of their transition towards BEV.

28.01.2026 16:42 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 8    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Lithuania had a great December for BEV. This pulled their PHEV peak closer to the present by a noticeable amount of time.

28.01.2026 16:41 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 6    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡น Lithuania - December 25 - BEV Trajectory
14.3% BEV
16.3% PHEV
69.4% ICE (of which 40.4%p were HEV)

Trailing 12 months are:
7.5% BEV
10.6% PHEV
81.9% ICE (of which 46.7%p were HEV)

Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

28.01.2026 16:40 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 8    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 3

PHEV is currently taking a relevant market share in Latvia off of Diesel and Petrol. Petrol still dominates there though.

28.01.2026 16:38 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 8    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Latvia has gotten slower over the years in terms of BEV adoption speed. No idea when this will shift, but they are a case where the used market is far faster than their new registration market. They'll shift once the big markets do.

28.01.2026 16:36 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 5    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Latvia is one of the few markets that shows a relevant maximum PHEV market share.

28.01.2026 16:35 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 6    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ป Latvia - December 25 - BEV Trajectory
8.8% BEV
12.7% PHEV
78.6% ICE

Trailing 12 months are:
7.1% BEV
12.2% PHEV
80.7% ICE

Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

28.01.2026 16:33 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 4    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 3

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