LeRaffl

Ach der is doch das gleiche Fähnchen in wind wie der Söder und andere Konsorten.

Certainly a stance one can take. Curve will adjust to show exactly that given time passes that yields that data.

Personally I suspect the Germany curve will get steeper as 2026 data comes in.

🇩🇪 Germany - November 25 - BEV Trajectory
22.2% BEV
12.9% PHEV
64.8% ICE (of which 28.3%p were HEV)

Trailing 12 months are:
18.5% BEV
10.6% PHEV
70.9% ICE (of which 28.8%p were HEV)

Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

The curve actually takes market sizes for each month into account. I learned the necessity for this from Ireland.
Still a parametric fit of course, and volatility will always exist, but just wanted to clear up that these kinds of outliers have little effect. Big months make or break the curve.

Working on it.

Huh... Maybe I should try and see what data exists on Petrol and Diesel usage. 🤔

That would span trucks as well 🤔🤔

🇮🇪 Ireland - November 25 - BEV Trajectory
41.5% BEV
16.1% PHEV
42.4% ICE (of which 16.3%p were HEV)

Trailing 12 months are:
19.0% BEV
15.1% PHEV
65.9% ICE (of which 23.5%p were HEV)

Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

Which is a time delayed result of global production ans applies to countries via import, export and decommissioning of vehicles.
It's hard to model that, so new registrations are a nice alternative.
But yes, ideally I'd model fleet. It's just hard to do.

🇷🇴 Romania - October 25 - BEV Trajectory
7.9% BEV
0.0% PHEV
92.1% ICE (of which 48.3%p were HEV)

Trailing 12 months are:
5.7% BEV
0.0% PHEV
94.3% ICE (of which 48.0%p were HEV)

Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

🇧🇬 Bulgaria - October 25 - BEV Trajectory
5.7% BEV
1.1% PHEV
93.2% ICE (of which 6.0%p were HEV)

Trailing 12 months are:
5.0% BEV
1.2% PHEV
93.8% ICE (of which 3.6%p were HEV)

Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

🇧🇪 Belgium - October 25 - BEV Trajectory
36.4% BEV
10.5% PHEV
53.1% ICE (of which 11.7%p were HEV)

Trailing 12 months are:
33.7% BEV
9.5% PHEV
56.8% ICE (of which 11.1%p were HEV)

Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

🇬🇷 Greece - October 25 - BEV Trajectory
7.4% BEV
12.2% PHEV
80.4% ICE (of which 52.5%p were HEV)

Trailing 12 months are:
6.4% BEV
7.5% PHEV
86.1% ICE (of which 49.3%p were HEV)

Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

🇭🇺 Hungary - October 25 - BEV Trajectory
8.7% BEV
6.2% PHEV
85.1% ICE (of which 50.1%p were HEV)

Trailing 12 months are:
8.0% BEV
4.9% PHEV
87.1% ICE (of which 50.4%p were HEV)

Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

In terms of adoption speed France has btw now managed to stop their deceleration. We might see acceleration again. This would be the case EU-wide btw, just using France as a nice example cuz I have them handy.

It didn't look like it was already time for PHEV to disappear in France going off of the past, but reality can always drop in and do whatever the consumers want. And it may be that consumers want PHEV gone faster than we thought.

Pure ICE are dying in France, only HEV is keeping the internal combustion engine alive, as PHEV is already showing shrinking market share, while BEV are rising.

🇫🇷 France - October 25 - BEV Trajectory
24.4% BEV
6.7% PHEV
68.9% ICE (of which 42.4%p were HEV)

Trailing 12 months are:
18.5% BEV
7.2% PHEV
74.3% ICE (of which 43.3%p were HEV)

Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

BYD specifically over 40%

Uruguay has such an insanely fast shift towards BEV it should embarrass western countries.

🇺🇾 Uruguay - October 25 - BEV Trajectory
34.4% BEV
1.7% PHEV
63.8% ICE (of which 9.8%p were HEV)

Trailing 12 months are:
25.6% BEV
1.4% PHEV
73.0% ICE (of which 8.9%p were HEV)

Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

@roquerol.bsky.social:
Some people say, w/ EVs, we're like in 2007, when the iPhone launched & Nokia, Blackberry & others didn't realise how big the menace was
They're wrong, we're in 2010, Apple had already eroded a big slice of the market & competitors said "no worries, we'll keep doing just fine"

NEV growth is due to BEV. ICE is on the way out in China.

PHEV have stopped growing in China prematurely it seems. This may be a hiccup, but it could just as well be the realisation that PHEV do not offer any real advantages to BEV. And yes, that goes for EREV as well, seeing how they are part of the blue curve.

🇨🇳 China - October 25 - BEV Trajectory (Repost)
35.8% BEV
20.7% PHEV (of which 4.8%p were EREV)
43.5% ICE

Trailing 12 months are:
32.0% BEV
20.1% PHEV (of which 4.8%p were EREV)
47.9% ICE

Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

It had a massive typo, I'll repost later today.

Some people say, with EVs, we're like in 2007, when the iPhone launched and Nokia, Blackberry and others didn't realise how big the menace was.They're wrong, we're like in 2010 when Apple had already eroded a big slice of the market and competitors said "no worries, we'll keep doing just fine".

2007 is soooo 2020

Not only is China above 50% for NEV, but consistently so. And the best part? Recently this was driven by BEV specifically!

Hybrids are already getting sloppy in China and ICE is basically dead at this point. BEV are undeniable.

I love that so much!