Rob Farago

#Tesla Q4 revenue dramatically down in USA (as expected after $7500 tax credit expiry) but all-time record revenue in China. "Other" (rest of the world) also down/flat. Have we hit peak Tesla revenue? #TSLA

Below is an analysis of the Model 3/Y VINs subject to recall which show year of production, drivetrain (RWD, AWD, Performance) etc.

7/7

Volkswagen-Rivian software joint venture allegedly hits turbulence - electrive.com Volkswagen is reportedly encountering extensive problems in its partnership with Rivian. As a result, electric models intended to run on Rivian software are

www.electrive.com/2025/09/19/v...

While OTA dramatically reduces the service costs for car makers, having your car connected to a network, like many modern devices, does open up cybersecurity risks.

6/7

Volkswagen-Rivian software joint venture allegedly hits turbulence - electrive.com Volkswagen is reportedly encountering extensive problems in its partnership with Rivian. As a result, electric models intended to run on Rivian software are

Notably Ford, VW & other legacy car companies have recognised this as a problem and started to move software development inhouse. However becoming a world leader in software development is challenging. VW now, after spending billions of Euros, wants to give up on the idea & partner with Rivian
5/7

According to Ford CEO Jim Farley their cars have up to 150 microprocessors, often developed by different companies, with different software systems that don’t talk to each other. x.com/alvinfoo/sta... Tesla are more vertically integrated and develop most of their vehicle software inhouse.

4/7

downloaded while the car was on the home wifi or via the mobile network.

Tesla didn’t invent OTA updates but they have certainly pushed forward the technology. It can be used not only to fix problems but also to update maps and improve the car by offering new features.

3/7

This high number of recalls seems like a very large number but amazingly 92% of all the problems identified were fixed with an OTA “over the air” software update. This means there was no need to visit a service center and that new software fixing the problem was simply

2/7

60,670 Tesla 3/Y (out of the 150000 Teslas sold in Australia) have been subject to an Australian government vehicle safety recall. www.vehiclerecalls.gov.au/recalls/brow...
Almost 16000 of these vehicles have been subject to a recall more than once (there is a total of 76,567 3/Y VINs listed)

1/7

Tesla fleet hits 150,000 EVs in Australia Tesla hits 150,000 EVs milestone in Australia, 18 months after surpassing 100,000 EVs as it enters autonomy era.

150,000 #Tesla #EVs on Australian roads. This is a massive number and Teslas can be seen everywhere.

In 2024 Tesla Australian EV marketshare was 42% and 2025 YTD it's 30%

thedriven.io/2025/11/13/t...

updated for end of October with actual EV sales (down) and more explicit assumptions (e.g. fully cycle home battery) and realistic assumptions for EV battery cycling for V2G, EV km driven etc.

Record #Tesla revenue in Q3 in USA (as $7500 tax credit expired) and almost record revenue in "Other" (rest of the world) outside China which didn't do too badly either. Q4 revenue likely to be way down in the USA. Very unlikely that China & Other can take up the slack. #TSLA

Automakers pool with EV makers to avoid EU emissions fines Automakers have formed alliances to help them avoid hefty European Union fines on carbon emissions by purchasing credits from electric vehicle companies.

Since then profits are now much greater than regulatory credits. It must be nice when your ICE vehicle competitors end up paying a decent chunk of your profits, equivalent to around 24% of your capex costs.

EU emissions pools article here www.reuters.com/sustainabili...

Tesla EV myth #42 - regulatory credits are the only reason #Tesla is profitable. From 2014-2019 they were indeed greater than profits because there weren't any and they definitely helped keep the lights on.

1/3

#Tesla is profitable (EBIT) at that scale, although their EV volumes and margins are declining, but it's been very hard for #Ford to scale up their EV sales over the last 4 years to turn a profit. Looking forward to new Ford EVs hitting our shores.

3/3

In 2025 Tesla has sold 8.6x as many EVs as Ford Motor Company and received 11x the revenue (not counting regulatory credits, which is another story).

2/3

#EV profit is hard. Ford has lost over $25K on every EV it's sold in 2025! Ford is losing less money than in 2024 though, and sales volumes are trending up.

1/3

How EVs can fix the grid and lower your electric bill A pilot project in Maryland is using EVs to create a cleaner, more resilient, and more affordable energy supply.

How EVs can fix the grid and lower your electric bill.

A pilot project in Maryland is using EVs to create a cleaner, more resilient, and more affordable energy supply.

grist.org/solutions/ho...

#EV #Cars #Car #Transportation #Electricity

Changing the rules: UNSW breakthrough opens door to silicon cells beyond 30% efficiency with singlet fission A team from UNSW Sydney has published a major advance that could unlock a new generation of high-efficiency silicon solar cells – using singlet fission.

and singlet fission might make it to scale more quickly by simply improving on the silicon. www.acap.org.au/post/unsw-si...

subtropical australia is so much more solar friendly. although there is seasonality it still gives enough generation all year around

This annual solar opinions thread is always insightful and also amusing.

If we could harness all the new EVs fully, to charge up in the day using this "free" energy & then discharge at night, of course leaving enough for expected driving the next morning, we could start to soak up some of the solar surplus from the past solar installs, & lower electricity prices for all

The rapid installation of home batteries under the program, along with our EVs, are now almost keeping up with the new small scale solar PV installs, absorbing around 84.6% of the new solar electricity.

4/5

Of course some of the new solar electricity was going to other electrification uses like electric hotwater/heatpumps, pool pumps, induction cooking, and heating and cooling.

3/5

Before the "cheaper home batteries program" came along, our home batteries and EVs (for driving) were only using around 13.6% of the new solar generation being installed each month.

2/5

The final missing piece to this puzzle of “too much” solar energy is bi-directional charging (aka #V2H & #V2G).

The wholesale electricity price in the middle of Australian sunny days has dropped to zero and even negative!

1/5

ok, if we run out of fuel, everyone with an EV will now be called up to deliver stock to woolies and coles
archive.is/V3LFI

#V2H #bidi with additional external hardware (estimated US$7.3-$7.5K) but no #V2L in this new Chevy Bolt which is a US$29K #EV

“The new Bolt supports GM Energy’s V2H home products, & can offload power at 9.6kW(!).

However, in terms of V2L onboard power, there are no 120V plugs”

chance of UNSW singlet fission becoming commercial before perovskites

www.acap.org.au/post/unsw-si...

BYD Seagull to become Australia's "most affordable EV by some margin" under a new name BYD is bringing its cut-price electric city hatch to Australia with the promise it will be the cheapest EV from any brand in local showrooms.

www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/aus...

BYD confirms release of Atto 1 electric hatchback, to be Australia's cheapest EV BYD says its best-selling and smallest electric car will make its way to Australia this year, and will be the lowest cost EV on the market "by some margin."

this will help. BYD Atto1 thedriven.io/2025/10/06/b...