neocentrist

Non-Trivial Economic Mistakes - Part I How to be a better macroeconomist than Noahpinion

In addition to the common economic mistakes we see people make, there are some "non-trivial" economic fallacies I often see out in the wild. One I've noticed is comparing policies based on benefits but not costs (or vice versa).

Another is not reading my posts:

neocentrist.org/p/non-trivia...

A State is Not a Company States don't maximize profits

Trump believes in an age-old fallacy which conflates nation-states with companies. He thinks that the US should strive to *make money* from geopolitics.

This is idiotic. It is even more idiotic when applied to countries such as Ukraine, which have 5%> of US income.

neocentrist.org/p/a-state-is...

ok so my question is how FRED will add Gaza's economic statistics to its database

what the hell is total factor productivity?

In Praise of Gerontocracy Why you should be glad the President is old

Gerontocracy has its upsides. Old leaders are less likely to attempt coups because they have less to gain. Older dictators also have the upside of *dying*. That often helps with ending the authoritarian regime.

More on this below:

neocentrist.org/p/in-praise-...

Where Georgia Stands Much More Than You Wanted to Know about Georgia

If anyone is curious in a more comprehensive overview of what's going on in Georgia and how we got to where we are, you can read the below post. Just wrote it up because there's not much else I am capable of thinking about:

neocentrist.org/p/where-geor...

Idk just thought about how I do a lot of verbal formal modeling and figured I'd do wordcel/shape rotator synthesis

the police is using water cannons and Georgians are answering it with firework machine guns

christmas came early this year 🎆

Up to debate, but I think Bidzina blames the West for all of his problems and has decided to "show them".

You have to realize that these people believe in wacko conspiracy theories. Google "Global war party".

Georgia is in the middle of one of its largest protests ever since the Gov decided to put EU accession on hold.

Somewhat ashamed that I'm not there with my friends right now.

Hints of 9,000-year-old wine found in China Scientists have found evidence that the Chinese were consuming fermented beverages — possibly wine — as long as 9,000 years ago.

Yh it's a thing

www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna6661424

nah idt they're claiming that, that's mostly between us, Armenia, and China

we called them ბერძნები which basically means wise in Georgian

they called us...Georgians, which means people who work land

mfs literally called us farmers when we were calling them wise

also he's Greek

can't forget about that

My Toy Macro Model The one where I keep talking about interest rates even as interest rates are not indicative of the stance of monetary policy.

Apparently Thanksgiving break meant that I had way too much time on my hands, so I decided to write up a post explaining the macro model I use in my head.

Highlights:

(1) What is the "neutral" rate?
(2) How do you set rates to achieve your goals?
(3) What about fiscal policy?

Read below:

Adam Smith created economics.

Marshall gave us mathematical economics.

Keynes gave us macroeconomics.

Friedman gave us a version of macroeconomics that didn't suck.

But they are all eclipsed by GW Smith, who showed that Japan's Phillips Curve looks like Japan.

There are two people in this picture. One of them understands economics, the other is Paul Krugman.

democratic peace theory is to international relations what the phillips curve is to macroeconomics

How the War in Ukraine Could End Apparently it takes more than 24 hours to end a war.

In addition to finally writing my first Bsky post, I've decided to resurrect my Substack.

The below details how I think the War in Ukraine could finally end. My argument is that ending the war is *hard* and that there is currently no realistic deal to be made.

neocentrist.org/p/how-the-wa...