Ben Keys

CBO: Republican megabill to cost $4.1T, due to higher borrowing costs The measure is also expected to add trillions to the federal deficit.

Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill works directly against his dream of rock-bottom interest rates. The CBO just estimated that it’ll raise interest rates and therefore, borrowing costs by $718 billion over the next decade.
www.politico.com/news/2025/08...

“.. This is the kind of thing you would only expect to see in a banana republic,” Ms. Yellen said.

@bencasselman.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/03/b...

“.. he argued that Americans could avoid tariffs by buying cars made in America. But it is well documented that when the price of an imported item goes up, domestic producers are then free to increase their own prices — and often will.”

@steverattner.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/04/o...

I was just informed that our Country’s “Jobs Numbers” are being produced by a Biden Appointee, Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, who faked the Jobs Numbers before the Election to try and boost Kamala’s chances of Victory. This is the same Bureau of Labor Statistics that overstated the Jobs Growth in March 2024 by approximately 818,000 and, then again, right before the 2024 Presidential Election, in August and September, by 112,000. These were Records — No one can be that wrong? We need accurate Jobs Numbers. I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY. She will be replaced with someone much more competent and qualified. Important numbers like this must be fair and accurate, they can’t be manipulated for political purposes. McEntarfer said there were only 73,000 Jobs added (a shock!) but, more importantly, that a major mistake was made by them, 258,000 Jobs downward, in the prior two months. Similar things happened in the first part of the year, always to the negative. The Economy is BOOMING under “TRUMP” despite a Fed that also plays games, this time with Interest Rates, where they lowered them twice, and substantially, just before the Presidential Election, I assume in the hopes of getting “Kamala” elected – How did that work out? Jerome “Too Late” Powell should also be put “out to pasture.” Thank you for your attention to this matter!

Unquestionably the most dangerous and corrupt attack on the independence of US economic data in American history. Trump is firing the head of the BLS, a longtime civil servant confirmed 86-8 by the Senate, simply because the job numbers came in below his expectations today

$200 million is enough to provide a year of Housing Choice Vouchers to about 13,000 low-income American families, enabling them to pay their rent & preventing homelessness.

President Trump's 2026 budget proposes slashing housing assistance programs by 44%.

In memory of Barry P. Bosworth | Brookings

I feel incredibly lucky to have had Barry Bosworth and Gary Burtless as mentors at Brookings.

Committed to understanding the world through rigorous data-driven research.

Intellectually honest, generous, and endlessly curious. A rare breed and I had two.

www.brookings.edu/articles/in-...

It’s been five days since floods in Texas killed at least 111 people and FEMA’s Acting Administrator David Richardson still hasn’t made a single public or internal statement.

How the next financial crisis starts The climate shocks that could trigger wider market turmoil

Climate-driven financial chaos is likely to be more menacing than past financial crashes, including that of 2008. “This type of climate risk is not cyclical. It’s heading in one direction,” says @benkeys.bsky.social, professor of real estate and finance at Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

Is Philadelphia’s heat as bad as Philadelphians say it is? See how it’s changed over the course of your lifetime. Learn how heat waves are increasing in frequency and duration in the region.

"In Philadelphia, heat waves averaged 2.2 in the late 1980s. Now, we have on average, 4.4." www.inquirer.com/weather/inq2...

Homeowners insurance in an era of climate change The U.S. Treasury data shows homeowners insurance is becoming more costly and harder to procure in light of climate change.

We've made an interactive map with data US Treasury collected that shows at the ZIP code level for 2018-2022 what US homeowners paid for insurance, what % of policies weren't renewed, and more. @brookings.edu Hutchins Center. www.brookings.edu/articles/hom...

Here recent = last 8+ years…so “recent” in academic / geological time

Housing, Climate Risk, and Insurance

An accessible summary of my recent research on housing, climate risk, and insurance:

www.nber.org/reporter/202...

Trump officials gut 25 centers that monitor flooding and drought in the US White House orders closure of USGS water science centers, which shares data with weather service for flood warnings

The Trump administration has ordered the closure of 25 USGS scientific centers that monitor US waters for flooding and drought, and manage water supplies to ensure communities around the country don’t run out of #water.

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...

I've said it a million times, a million different ways: in a socio-political system that has no mechanism for restraining or punishing liars, people are gonna lie a lot. It's rational to do so!

Former DOGE engineer says federal waste and fraud were 'relatively nonexistent' NPR's Juana Summers talks with Sahil Lavingia, who worked for the Department of Government Efficiency as a software engineer assigned to the Department of Veterans Affairs, about his experience.

"I personally was pretty surprised, actually, at how efficient the government was," said former DOGE engineer Sahil Lavingia www.npr.org/2025/06/02/n...

Insurance losses from climate change could impact wider economy, ECB warns Climate change poses an increasing risk to the insurance sector in the EU, the ECB has warned in its latest financial stability report.

Insurance losses from climate change could impact wider economy, ECB warns

The widening insurance gap is a systemic risk, as physical damage could impact the value of assets and property, leading to repricing in areas most exposed to climate change...

greencentralbanking.com/2025/06/09/i...

In rare move, City Council ‘effectively killed’ affordable housing project approved by the zoning board A resolution from Councilmember Jay Young authorizes City Council to file an appeal of the Zoning Board of Adjustment's variance for the Strawberry Mansion project.

How can you decry gentrification and then reject a thoughtful plan for a modest group of affordable houses? www.inquirer.com/real-estate/...

Cuts have consequences, illustrated. As seen on TV 📺

(Reuters) - FEMA staff left baffled after the disaster agency’s head said during a briefing that he hadn’t been aware the US has a hurricane season. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/fema-staff-confused-after-head-said-he-was-unaware-us-hurricane-season-sources-2025-06-02/

YouTube video by MSNBC Hayes: We are more powerful than ‘one petty, addled man’—and Trump knows it

“All these institutions and the people that power them,” says Chris Hayes, “altogether are more powerful than this one petty, addled man—and Donald Trump knows it, and that's why he wants to end them,” says Chris Hayes on Trump’s attack on independent institutions.

"Since the founding of this great democracy 250 years ago, generation upon generation have assumed the burden and the honor of moving us closer to the ideal that all are created equal. Now, it's your turn. I ask you to take a minute and realize how the quest for these values has led us to this point in our history. We lead the world in so many ways, including in scientific innovation and economic dynamism. Our great universities are the envy of the world and a crucial national asset. Look around you. I urge you to take none of this for granted. When you look back in 50 years, you will want to know that you have done whatever it takes to preserve and strengthen our democracy, and bring us ever closer to the Founders' timeless ideals."

Fed Chair Powell graduation remarks to Princeton nod toward our current predicament: "Look around you. I urge you to take none of this for granted. When you look back in 50 years, you will want to know that you have done whatever it takes to preserve and strengthen our democracy."

Insurance costs are soaring around Tornado Alley. Hail is the big problem. While tornadoes can obliterate communities, hailstorms cause damage across much larger areas.

"The cost of homeowners insurance is soaring in states where large outbreaks of tornadoes are becoming more common. But it's hail — not tornadoes — that are the biggest concern for insurers in the middle of the country" - @npr.org's @michaelcopley1.bsky.social www.npr.org/2025/05/23/n...

With quotes from @scottstgeorge.paleohydrology.com and @benkeys.bsky.social

Map of the U.S. showing voter support for cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, or food assistance) by congressional district. Support for SNAP cuts ranges from 5% to 14%. Created by Data for Progress.

There is not a single congressional district in the U.S. where more than 15% of voters support cuts to SNAP, the federal program that provides food assistance to millions of low-income Americans.

Climate, the Sixth “C” of Credit First Street™ research is transparent, peer reviewed, and proven against real environmental events. Use the Library to access First Street Research.

New First Street analysis shows that, in a severe weather year, weather-related foreclosures could cost US lenders $1.2 billion per year, with potential losses projected to increase to $5.4 billion a year by 2035, driven largely by underinsured flood events and the increasing cost of insurance.

Tornado warnings delayed because of DOGE cuts At least 27 are dead in Missouri in Kentucky after severe weather alerts were delayed overnight because of DOGE cuts.

At least 27 are dead in Missouri in Kentucky after severe weather alerts were delayed overnight because of DOGE cuts.

www.mesoscalenews.com/p/tornado-wa...

Climate change is coming for Florida’s real estate. Why don’t prices reflect it? So far, property values have remained remarkably resilient to flood risks – more resilient than many of the actual homes.

Read the whole story, the second installment in a
@miamiherald.com series on real estate and sea level rise, here: www.miamiherald.com/news/local/e...

I get this question alll the time. If sea level rise is going to flood more Miami houses, why on earth is the market still so red hot?

Let's get into it. [With @semerriam.bsky.social]