Steve Rattner

Consumer sentiment inched upwards in February.

The gap between unemployed job seekers and job openings is widening. There are now 1.15 job seekers for every opening.

Job openings in the US dropped to 6.5M in December, and November's numbers were revised downwards.

Trump loves to boast that he’s won trillions of new investments in the US, but if so, it hasn’t shown up in the data yet.

My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Trump loves to fabricate astronomical investment numbers — his latest is $18T. The White House website reports about half that amount, and even that is likely an exaggeration.

My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Trump’s manufacturing renaissance has yet to materialize. In fact, America lost 68K manufacturing jobs in 2025.

My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Trump claims that factories are being constructed across America, but in reality, spending on manufacturing-related construction has declined during his administration.

My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Before Trump took office, retail prices were trending downwards. His tariffs reversed that pattern.

My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Trump likes to complain that he inherited the worst inflation in history, but the truth is that he started his term with inflation at a manageable 3%.

My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Welfare fraud should always be taken seriously, but the right’s characterization of it as an immigrant problem is completely off-base — US citizens account for 95% of fraud losses.

cc: @cato.org

Instead of chasing quixotic wealth taxes, those who want the rich to pay their fair should focus on this: low capital gains rates under-tax a huge portion of income for the highest-earning Americans.

cc: @taxfoundation.bsky.social

2026 Economic Forecast — The Common Good Brace yourself for a powerhouse briefing on the 2026 economic forecast.  Steven Rattner , one of the most influential voices on the U.S. economy joins The Common Good for an exclusive briefi...

I’ll join The Common Good on Wednesday 2/4 to discuss my forecast for the economy in 2026. RSVP for the in-person lunch at the link below.
www.thecommongoodus.org/upcoming-eve...

Rate Cuts On Pause On MS NOW’s Morning Joe today, Steven Rattner broke down the Fed’s decision to pause interest rate cuts.

My weekly blogs on my @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social charts are now on substack.

Today, I explained the Fed's decision to pause interest rate cuts.
open.substack.com/pub/stevenra...

Interestingly, while economic indicators are relatively stable, consumer confidence has been steadily dropping.

My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Employment growth numbers since liberation day average slightly above zero. When taking into account predicted downward revisions, the data says we’re losing jobs.

My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

GDP growth can remain strong despite a weak labor market because productivity is high — each existing worker is producing more, but we’re not hiring many new workers.

My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

GDP growth remained relatively strong in 2025. That’s due in part to a ton of AI-related investment. (In Q2, it accounted for nearly a third of growth.)

My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Inflation is projected to slowly, steadily decline in 2026. New Fed rate cuts are conditional on that happening.

My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

The Fed forecasts only 2 cuts over the next 3 years, so rates won’t drop close to pre-covid levels any time in the foreseeable future.

My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

The Fed left rates unchanged, at 3.75%.

The Conference Board's labor differential steeply dropped this month, as fewer and fewer Americans think that jobs are plentiful.

Consumer confidence plunged this month, hitting a 12-year low.

It is true that more and more American homes sales are going to investors. But they’re not the institutional investors that Trump wants to target. They’re actually medium and small investors.

cc: @voxdotcom.bsky.social

This chart explains how the economy can continue to grow, even as many Americans struggle to make ends meet: the richest fifth of Americans account for more than half of spending.

cc: @axios.com

This tax season, Americans are going to see a boost in their tax returns due to OBBBA’s tax cuts. That might lift public sentiment on affordability a bit.

cc: @taxfoundation.bsky.social

Opinion | Simple or Simplistic? Three Experts Spar Over a California Billionaire Tax.

America definitely needs to make the wealthy pay their fair share, but California’s wealth tax proposal isn't the best option.

I joined Emmanuel Saez and @crampell.bsky.social for an @nytopinion.nytimes.com roundtable to debate the merits of the plan.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/23/o...

A great chart from @piie.com on how the relationship between hiring and unemployment has changed since the pandemic. Low unemployment no longer means increased hiring — that’s why the economy may feel great for some and terrible for others.

PCE inflation was 2.8% in November.

The anticipated Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs pertains to his use of IEEPA. Blocking his use of the law would majorly impact tariff rates — IEEPA accounts for 55% of tariffs collected last year.

cc: @taxfoundation.bsky.social

Trump Threatens to Hit Countries That Oppose His Greenland Takeover With Tariffs The president said the U.S. needs to take control of the territory to protect U.S. national security.

This can’t be serious – I can’t think of a more ridiculous reason for imposing tariffs.
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...