@peterwildeford.bsky.social
Globally ranked top 20 forecaster 🎯 AI is getting powerful. We're not ready. I work at the Institute for AI Policy and Strategy (IAPS) to shape AI for for global prosperity and human freedom 🌍
Does Trump's AI Action Plan have what it takes to win?
There are sharp policies for US AI but also contradictions around China strategy, AGI preparedness, permitting reform, and execution speed.
Here are my ten takes on what it gets right, what it misses, and what it means for America's AI future.
I'd bet pretty heavily at 5% personally
26.07.2025 16:33 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Here's what IAPS researchers are thinking about the AI Action Plan:
24.07.2025 21:27 — 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
AI has "the potential to reshape the global balance of power, spark entirely new industries, and revolutionize the way we live"
This isn't hype. It's official US policy.
And with bipartisan members of Congress giving AI timelines, we're seeing a vibe shift. I unpack it here:
Now is an even better time to get an AI job than I thought. I updated my post with more jobs. peterwildeford.substack.com/p/now-is-a-g...
21.07.2025 18:23 — 👍 3 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 1
🚨💼 I'm hiring! And so are many other organizations I like.
If you’re looking for a career in AI policy, now is an excellent time. I've selected a list of my favorite roles and if you like my tweets you're likely the target audience!
DeepSeek was not a Sputnik moment in AI
This graph is the Sputnik moment in AI
My 164 day journey to 3000 subscribers complete! Thanks to all those who subscribe. 🫡
14.07.2025 01:46 — 👍 9 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0A few of my favorite accounts from twitter that I think should get more love here, consider following if they’re up your alley!
@nathanpmyoung.com AI and forecasting
@peterwildeford.bsky.social AI and forecasting
@zswitten.bsky.social AI and claudeposting
@danallison.bsky.social cool doodles
My 164 day journey to 3000 subscribers complete! Thanks to all those who subscribe. 🫡
13.07.2025 14:53 — 👍 6 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Explore AI and consciousness in the annual Berggruen Prize Essay Competition, a $50,000 first place prize for essays exploring consciousness.
berggruen.org/essay-compet...
peterwildeford.substack.com/p/explore-ai...
@berggruen.org @peterwildeford.bsky.social
I don't think that's a good characterization of what I said at all?
11.07.2025 00:28 — 👍 4 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
🚨 IAPS is hiring a lot! Potentially 10+ people across 6+ roles. Now's a great time to apply, refer your friends, or refer your competent enemies.
www.iaps.ai/careers
If you can’t prevent your AI from endorsing Hitler, how can we trust you with ensuring far more complex future AGI can be deployed safely?
Today I explain the trends and implications of Grok's recent turn towards MechaHitler 👇
peterwildeford.substack.com/p/can-we-saf...
Grok admits to visiting Jeffrey Epstein's home with his ex-wife, declined island invites
06.07.2025 16:04 — 👍 4 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
On July 4, 1776, 56 men signed the Declaration of Independence. They were imperfect men, but united by principle.
Today's blog: as authoritarianism again rises globally, understanding why those principles still matter has rarely been more crucial.
peterwildeford.substack.com/p/american-i...
A Congressperson just asked a very important question: "Is it possible that a loss of control could give ris to an independent ASI actor that globally we will need to contend with?"
Congress finally gets it.
AGI isn't sci-fi anymore.
peterwildeford.substack.com/p/congress-h...
On Saturday, the US just dropped 14 bunker-busters on Iran's nuclear facility at Fordow, buried 260 feet underground.
Today, I dropped my post explaining what happened and forecasting what comes next.
peterwildeford.substack.com/p/after-us-s...
because Israel destroyed all their air defenses and Russia is too busy to help replenish them?
20.06.2025 14:45 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0Isn't it kinda just "gradually than suddenly"? Iran used to be significantly scarier and formidable
20.06.2025 14:45 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
"Forecasting is often met with skepticism, but it's not about having a crystal ball. It's about expressing uncertainty with precision."
Was great to go on the Center for AI Policy podcast and talk about forecasting and AI strategy.
peterwildeford.substack.com/p/numbers-no...
Israel just struck Iran's nuclear facilities with 200 aircraft and 330+ munitions. But they haven't stopped Iran's nuclear program yet. What's going on? And what happens next? peterwildeford.substack.com/p/the-fordow...
14.06.2025 02:23 — 👍 7 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 0
China's top AI models are trained on American chips. Preventing China's access to top American chips prevents their access to top models.
Using EpochAI data, we found only two examples of notable models trained using Chinese chips.
Sorry I was wrong. The gap isn't like consumer GPUs. It's like A100 -> H100. It's like being 2-3 years behind in architecture and further behind in manufacturing process.
12.06.2025 13:47 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0yeah I think so
12.06.2025 13:04 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
Reminder that if you want to give o3-pro a try and don't want or can't afford the $200/month pro sub, you can access it from the Open AI playground.
11.06.2025 11:14 — 👍 19 🔁 3 💬 1 📌 0
There's a narrative that if Nvidia faces any restrictions, people will just buy Huawei chips instead.
Reality: Huawei's own founder admits their chips suck.
We don’t deserve Opus 😭
(From AI Diplomacy)
The dominant narrative of DeepSeek was importantly wrong.
Zvi does a great job of capturing the reasons why the DeepSeek moment happened the way it did.
Enforcing export controls maintains US dominance by suppressing China's ability to bootstrap US tech into Chinese domestic AI.
06.06.2025 14:05 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
