Peter Wildeford

My last link shortener died, so here's the updated version! Check out and get involved in AI policy!

bit.ly/ai-job-list

There's a narrative that GPT5 has proven the end of scaling. This is false.

Claude 4.5 gives us another opportunity to see how AI trends are holding up. We can project current trends and compare.

I forecast METR will find Claude 4.5 to have a 2-4h time horizon.

5 fellowships and 10 additional roles that you can apply to in order to kick-start your AI policy career. Check them out!

=> t.ly/ai-jobs

3. Claude continues to smash others at SWE-Bench too, as usual.

2. Everyone talking about 4.5 being great at coding, but I'm taking way more notice of that huge increase in computer use (OSWorld) score That's a huge increase over SOTA and I don't think we've seen anything similarly good at OSWorld from others? Claude Agents coming soon?

Three quick notes on Claude Sonnet 4.5:

1. Having a separate Opus 4.1 (but no Sonnet 4.1) and Sonnet 4.5 (but no Opus 4.5) is really something

OpenAI, NVIDIA, and Oracle: Breaking Down $100B Bets on AGI How vendor financing turns the S&P 500 into a giant AGI bet

What does the recent $100B NVIDIA deal mean for AI?

OpenAI, NVIDIA, and Oracle created a $400B+ circular financing scheme that makes 25% of the S&P 500 a bet on AGI.

The math only works if they're right about AI scaling. And it might actually work.

peterwildeford.substack.com/p/openai-nvi...

Don’t let nuance lead you to miss the bigger picture -- even if Yudkowsky and Soares are overconfident, there still are serious dangers from scaling AI to superintelligence.

The real overconfidence that matters most is the overconfidence of the AI companies.

If We Build AI Superintelligence, Do We All Die? If you're not at least a little doomy about AI, you're not paying attention

"If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies". It's a shocking headline. How well does it hold up? Today I review.

peterwildeford.substack.com/p/if-we-buil...

🔮 #3 Top Forecaster: "Nothing Ever Happens" Inside Peter Wildeford’s award-winning forecasting strategy

I did an interview with The Oracle where I talk about why all your hot takes are probably wrong! Check it out! news.polymarket.com/p/nothing-ev...

AI is not a normal technology.

Normal tech doesn't deceive their operators.
Normal tech doesn't autonomously blackmail people.
Normal tech doesn't refuse to go back into the toolbox.
Normal tech doesn't develop goals you never gave them.

There's little normal about AI.

Trump is right

AgentHopper: An AI Virus · Embrace The Red AgentHopper: A proof-of-concept AI Virus

AI agents can be hijacked to spread like computer viruses. Prompt injection can form AI-driven malware.

In this demonstration, AgentHopper exploits flaws in GitHub Copilot and infects repositories, jumps between coding agents, and spreads automatically through GitHub commits.

Explainer: How AI Chips Are Made It's complicated

AI chips are potentially the most complex objects humans have ever made.

They take hundreds of steps to fabricate and only can be constructed by the shared knowledge across a handful of companies on Earth.

Today, Erich explains on the blog how chips are made.

Compute is a strategic resource Computing power still determines who wins the AI race

Compute is the new oil. It's cliché but true, especially geopolitically.

Like oil, compute is:
- Scarce (demand far exceeds supply)
- Concentrated (US: 75%, China: 15%, EU: 5%)
- Controllable (export controls actually work)
- Strategically vital (biggest AI bottleneck)

"Agentic AI has been weaponized. AI models are now being used to perform sophisticated cyberattacks, not just advise on how to carry them out."

From Anthropic’s latest AI Threat Intelligence Report

GPT-5: a small step for intelligence, a giant leap for normal people GPT-5 focuses on where the money is - everyday users, not AI elites

GPT-5 is here.

It’s not a giant leap in intelligence. But for 98% of users, it’s still the best ChatGPT yet.

What does this tell us about the future of AI? In today's blog, I dig in.

peterwildeford.substack.com/p/gpt-5-a-sm...

they should be taken to The Vague for this post crime

Z.ai and Huawei aren't defeating US export controls Loosening restrictions now would surrender America's technological advantage

People are losing their minds over Chinese AI again. This time it's Z.ai's GLM-4.5.

A @wsj.com op-ed claims GLM-4.5 proves US export controls have "backfired spectacularly." Trump's AI adviser retweeted it.

They're wrong. Here's what's actually happening:

Does Trump’s AI Action Plan have what it takes to win? Ten takes on the AI Action Plan

Does Trump's AI Action Plan have what it takes to win?

There are sharp policies for US AI but also contradictions around China strategy, AGI preparedness, permitting reform, and execution speed.

Here are my ten takes on what it gets right, what it misses, and what it means for America's AI future.

I'd bet pretty heavily at 5% personally

IAPS Researchers React: The US AI Action Plan — Institute for AI Policy and Strategy Experts at the Institute for AI Policy and Strategy reviewed the AI Action Plan with an eye toward its national security implications. As AI continues to accelerate towards very powerful artificial ge...

Here's what IAPS researchers are thinking about the AI Action Plan:

Official White House policy: AI is a big deal The AI vibe shift continues. Action is next.

AI has "the potential to reshape the global balance of power, spark entirely new industries, and revolutionize the way we live"

This isn't hype. It's official US policy.

And with bipartisan members of Congress giving AI timelines, we're seeing a vibe shift. I unpack it here:

Now is an even better time to get an AI job than I thought. I updated my post with more jobs. peterwildeford.substack.com/p/now-is-a-g...

Now is a great time to get a career in AI policy I'm hiring! And dozens more impactful AI policy roles

🚨💼 I'm hiring! And so are many other organizations I like.

If you’re looking for a career in AI policy, now is an excellent time. I've selected a list of my favorite roles and if you like my tweets you're likely the target audience!

DeepSeek was not a Sputnik moment in AI

This graph is the Sputnik moment in AI

My 164 day journey to 3000 subscribers complete! Thanks to all those who subscribe. 🫡

A few of my favorite accounts from twitter that I think should get more love here, consider following if they’re up your alley!

@nathanpmyoung.com AI and forecasting

@peterwildeford.bsky.social AI and forecasting

@zswitten.bsky.social AI and claudeposting

@danallison.bsky.social cool doodles

My 164 day journey to 3000 subscribers complete! Thanks to all those who subscribe. 🫡

Compete in the Berggruen Prize Essay Competition | $50,000 Prize Submit your essay for a chance to win $50,000 and be published by Berggruen Press. Explore fundamental questions and bridge cultural perspectives. Make your mark on the future of philosophy and cultur...

Explore AI and consciousness in the annual Berggruen Prize Essay Competition, a $50,000 first place prize for essays exploring consciousness.

berggruen.org/essay-compet...

peterwildeford.substack.com/p/explore-ai...

@berggruen.org @peterwildeford.bsky.social