Tom Dale

Data on the causes of IDF fatalities since Israel broke the ceasefire show how reliant Hamas is on IEDs, and hence how little offensive capacity it has.

So why has the IDF's method been raid-withdraw-repeat, allowing Hamas to reestablish lethality each time? Analysis in the quoted post.

Can Israel win in Gaza? A Hamas-laid trap killed five Israeli soldiers in Beit Hanoun last week, 18 months after the IDF first declared victory in the town. What explains Israel's apparent failures so far?

I wrote about why it may be misleading to think that the IDF's raid-withdraw-repeat cycle, expressed most recently in Beit Hanoun, is headed for another turn. zeroline.substack.com/p/can-israel...

Translated Ha'aretz chart on IDF fatalities in Gaza over past year. In a month, if no end to the war, we'll see whether June was an anomaly or if Hamas are able to maintain an effective resurgence in lethality. (nb: Even at this level, it seems far from sufficient to deter IDF.)

US-backed Gaza aid group says all distribution sites closed after shootings The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation said a reopening date would be announced later and urged residents to stay away from these venues "for their safety."

”A U.S.- and Israeli-backed group handing out aid in Gaza said on Friday all its distribution sites were closed until further notice, urging residents to stay away from these venues ’for their safety’” @reuters.com
www.reuters.com/world/middle...

Fragments #2: Gaza without illusions, Zohran for NYC, Tooze on the Holocaust, 8% beers of MENA, Abundance (resistance style), &c. The second Fragments – a series with few short, sharp articles about what’s been on my mind over the past week or so.

Latest newsletter: : Gaza without illusions, Zohran for NYC, Tooze on the Holocaust, 8% beers of MENA, Abundance (resistance style), &c.

zeroline.substack.com/p/fragments-...

Mea culpa: I understood Netanyahu wanted to break the agreement. I am surprised that Trump, having said, "if they respect us, it will hold," is allowing that to happen so flagrantly and so soon.

Destroys U.S. credibility as a guarantor.

Israel claims to have a "side letter" - these have often accompanied U.S.-mediated agreements signed by Israel - in which *the Biden administration* legitimates its approach.

Absolutely false, irresponsible framing. The ceasefire has not "expired", it has been killed by Israel, apparently with U.S. backing.

Hamas are factually correct to describe this as "a blatant upending of the agreement.”

When the Houthis started their Red Sea attacks, alot of people tried to claim they were unrelated to Israel's war in Gaza. Well, as the ceasefire comes into effect, the Houthis have halted their attacks.

The remote, strategically located Yemeni island of Abdelkuri suddenly has an airstrip. There’s no explanation, but someone has written “I LOVE UAE” just next to it in gigantic letters, so maybe there is an explanation.

@jongambrell.bsky.social
@apnews.com

apnews.com/article/yeme...

Notes on the ceasefire Why did it happen? What does it mean? Will it hold? What happens next?

Notes on the ceasefire: how it came about, what it tells us about the successes and failures of Joe Biden, Hamas, and the Palestinian solidarity movement in the West. And what comes next.

zeroline.substack.com/p/notes-on-t...

Why did Assad fall so fast? The geopolitics of U.S. power, and the Syrian politics of revolution

Me and Tom Rollins wrote about why Assad fell so quickly, and why efforts to cut Syrians out of their own story are wrong-headed.

Yes, the international dimension mattered, but it's far from the whole picture.

open.substack.com/pub/zeroline...

An utterly damning and horrific image.

BlueSky really needs a save function. Ideally with a workable search, unlike Twitter/X.

We need to understand with absolute clarity what the IDF is, and what it does. It is not capable of exercising self-restraint, and Israel’s “political echelon” has no intention of restraining it. It must be restrained from outside.
www.haaretz.com/opinion/2024...

The BBC's Civil War Over Gaza The BBC is facing an internal revolt over its reporting on Israel’s war on Gaza. Owen Jones investigates.

A damning, detailed report on the bias of the BBC News website - the most visited on the internet - in favour of Israel and against Palestine.

open.substack.com/pub/dropsite...

Israel is running a prison camp at Ofer, which lawyers say routinely administers torture to detainees, including electrocution and beating - in at least one case, to death www.972mag.com/ofer-camp-to...

One of those weeks where the images of dead children from Gaza are especially terrible. What more is there to say about it anymore? Eternal shame on anyone who excuses it. This did not have to happen.

Bashar al-Asad claims to have, in essence, fled Syria by accident, after going to Russia's Hmeimim airbase for safety, and then evacuating with the troops there.

Economic Sanctions on Syria: A Critical Reappraisal

This Syria sanctions lit review was published 9 Dec, but apparently finished before the HTS offensive. It suggests that sanctions were economically devastating but politically ineffective. Expect to see push back on the second part of that conclusion.
www.securityincontext.com/posts/econom...

YouTube video by Perun Syria & the Fall of Bashar al-Assad - Why Assad's military folded and what's next

Thorough run-down from Perun on what we can infer, so far, about why Assad's army collapsed as quickly as it did: www.youtube.com/watch?v=rOzX...

Wait. Are Syrians participating? Could this be a constructive meeting? Possibly. Does Syria need a ton of assistance? Absolutely. But hammering out an approach to transition should not happen unless Syrians are leading.

Jordan to host Arab, international meetings on developments in Syria Ministerial meetings to address Syria’s political, security landscape following ouster of Bashar al-Assad regime, says Foreign Ministry - Anadolu Ajansı

An important meeting for the future of Syria tomorrow. Foreign ministers from the Arab world and Turkey, the U.N. Special Envoy and representatives of the U.S. and Europe will meet in Aqaba, Jordan, to hammer out an approach to political transition in Syria.

IDF: Troops will stay in Syria buffer zone and strategic Mount Hermon as long as needed Israel says move to capture territory is defensive, intended to be temporary; army says it will hold new positions until situation clears up after fall of Assad regime

After occupying new areas in southern Syria, the Israeli military ”stressed that the move was temporary, but also acknowledged that troops would likely remain inside Syrian territory for the foreseeable future.” (So, not temporary.)

@manniefabian.bsky.social

www.timesofisrael.com/idf-troops-w...

The release of prisoners from the infamous Palestine Branch in Damascus.
"10 years!" shouts the man in a red shirt.
"What's happened?" asks the man in the blue shirt. "The regime has fallen" is the response.

A video filmed by a friend in Damascus: celebratory gunfire over the early morning skyline as the news of Assad's departure spreads.

Much uncertainty ahead, but for now: a thousand thousand congratulations to Syria and its revolution.

Syrian president leaves Damascus on plane as army says his rule ends - reports Thousands of Syrians, in cars and on foot, have congregated at a main square in Damascus, chanting for freedom, according to the Reuters news agency. Thousands also poured into the streets in Homs…

It's a shame he never got see the inside of Sednaya, but here we go. What a moment.

The Frontline Interview: Abu Mohammad al-Jolani Jon and Jo Ann Hagler on behalf of the Jon L. Hagler Foundation

2021 PBS interview with Jolani, well worth your time, covering his upbringing and ideological formation, time in prison, relationship to ISIS and Al-Qaeda and the break with both, consolidating HTS's power within the rebel camp, torture allegations:

The Backstory Behind the Fall of Aleppo New Lines reports exclusively on the details leading up to the city's stunning capture

Useful backgrounder on HTS seizure of Aleppo, and their first day or two of rule there: newlinesmag.com/reportage/th...

What are the best pieces to read or people to talk to on Jolani's political and administrative projects? I.e. how he presents his agenda ideologically as well as state building, and how they've evolved.