Emil Kastehelmi

Operation Spiderweb, BDA

Here's the link to our sheet. If you spot mistakes, please inform us. The assessment was made by me,
@eerikmatero.bsky.social and @jjhelin.bsky.social from our @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social. Thanks to Wihuri Foundation for funding us – it made this BDA possible. 17/17

docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

Russia can’t replace the lost bombers by simply ordering new ones, as neither Tu-95 or Tu-22M have been produced in over 30 years. The aircraft are aging, and a significant proportion of the operational planes were rapidly lost – some can’t even be used as spare parts. 16/

These bombers have been used extensively in missile attacks against Ukraine, and they were very legitimate targets. The missile threat does not disappear directly with these losses, but especially in the long term Russian strategic aviation faces challenges. 15/

Before the operation, Russia most likely had less than 100 operational strategic bombers in operational condition, so likely somewhere between 11-14% of Russian strategic bombers have been destroyed. Total losses are higher, but difficult to exactly estimate. 14/

However, it’s unlikely that the losses would mount up to 41 destroyed or damaged aircraft. Even if the total losses were limited to the 14 confirmed bombers, it would still be a very significant success for Ukraine, which should not be underestimated. 13/

It’s possible that there are undocumented but damaged aircraft. Unpublished video footage of additional strikes could exist, and it’s not always possible to reliably assess limited damage from satellite imagery. Total losses may be slightly higher than currently known. 12/

Ukraine’s General Staff has stated that 41 Russian aircraft were destroyed or damaged. However, visual evidence currently supports only 23 aircraft being hit or approached by drones. It is highly unlikely that any destroyed aircraft would have gone unnoticed. 11/

Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told TASS that no aircraft were destroyed, only damaged, and all would be repaired. This claim either reflects complete ignorance or is deliberate disinformation, as multiple aircraft were damaged beyond repair. 10/

The evaluation is based on videos and satellite imagery. Each aircraft was identified and geolocated to avoid double-counting, as some appeared multiple times in the footage. The condition of the planes was then assessed by combining video, imagery, and geolocation data. 9/

For example, the two high-value A-50 reconnaissance and radar planes targeted by Ukraine likely fall into this category. It’s very likely neither of them got fully destroyed, but we couldn’t accurately assess potential damage. It’s also possible the drones did not detonate. 8/

As you can notice, not all targeted aircraft were operational at the time of the strikes. Some have been stationary for long periods and may lack parts, such as engines. However, they’re proper targets too, as non-operational aircraft can be used as spare parts. 7/

In Dyagilevo:

1 x Tu-22M3 damaged

1 x Tu-22M3 unknown condition after the strike, likely non-operational

1 x Tu-22M3 likely undamaged

In Ivanovo:

2 x A-50 unknown condition, planes non-operational, engines missing

6/

In Belaya:

3 x Tu-95MS destroyed

4 x Tu-22M3 destroyed

1 x Tu-22M3 damaged

1 x Tu-22M3 unknown condition

1 x IL-78 undamaged (aerial refueling tanker)

It's uncertain if the damaged Tu-22M3 can be repaired - it seems the hull was damaged. 5/

Next, we’ll examine the damage in each individual air base. In Olenya:

4 x Tu-95MS destroyed

1 x An-12BK destroyed

2 x Tu-22M3 likely undamaged

One of the Tu-22M3 was very likely in a non-operational state, a flap was missing from its left wing. 4/

The highest possible number for total losses is 19, if all aircraft in unknown condition are actually damaged. However, this can’t be confirmed at the moment.

In 4 cases, it appears the drones likely missed, did not explode or cause visible damage for other reasons. 3/

From videos and satellite images, 23 distinct aircraft were identified in total as potentially targeted. The condition of 4 aircraft seen in videos remains unclear. Available evidence doesn’t allow for assessing potential damage or whether nearby drones even detonated. 2/

On June 1, Ukraine conducted a successful operation targeting Russian strategic bombers and other aircraft.

Our battle damage assessment can confirm the following losses: 12 destroyed and 3 damaged aircraft, of which 14 are strategic bombers and 1 is a transport aircraft. 1/

Even if the final number of destroyed targets is lower, this has still been a successful and a cost-effective operation, striking Russia where it hurts.

Consequently, Russia will be compelled to adapt against an even wider range of drone threats across the whole country. 4/4

Additional proof of the results will likely surface soon, if the claims of over 40 damaged or destroyed aircraft are true. If not, satellite images in the coming days will likely tell the truth. 3/

Currently we've been able to confirm successful strikes in Olenya and Belaya (a total of 5x Tu-95MS and 1x AN-12). There's been reports of explosions and images of something burning in the Ivanovo and Dyagilovo directions, but it's possible the smoke and explosions have been from downed drones. 2/

The Russian MoD has now also confirmed the Ukrainian strikes.

However, they claim that the Ukrainians only succeeded in Olenya and Belaya - they say strikes in Ivanovo, Ryazan (Dyagilevo) and Amur were repelled. They didn't specify the amount or types of aircraft lost. 1/

At least currently it seems likely this was done with FPV drones flown by SBU-led sabotage groups operating inside Russia, not by "traditional" long-range drones flying all the way from Ukraine. This would also explain why the defensive measures failed so immensely. 4/4

These are major and expensive losses for Russia that can't be replaced quickly.

Additionally, the air base in Belaya, roughly 4300 km from Ukraine, has been hit. Also Dyagilevo and Ivanovo air bases are burning. This is a very, very successful day for Ukraine. 3/

Russia had transferred the valuable planes to Olenya to avoid the exact scenario we're seeing on the videos and photos coming from the area. Bombers operating from the field have repeatedly struck Ukraine with cruise missiles. 2/

Ukraine has struck multiple strategic bombers in Olenya, Murmansk oblast, 1800 km from Ukraine. This is one of the most successful drone strikes against against Russian air bases in the entire war. The extent of the damage is yet unclear, but I can already say it's significant. 1/

The War in Ukraine Map depicting the frontlines of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as analysed by Black Bird Group

Despite my busy schedule, I continue to closely follow the war in Ukraine. Our team at @Black_BirdGroup is also actively monitoring and analyzing the situation. Don't forget to check our interactive map for daily updates. 13/13

www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/Th...

Lately I’ve been posting less Ukraine analysis, as I’ve been tied to work, writing my upcoming book and giving interviews (sometimes even multiple per day) to media outlets around the world regarding the actions of the Russian military near our borders here in Finland. 12/

The Russians will likely attack throughout the summer and into the fall with full force, pressuring the Ukrainians on a wide front. The events on the battlefield will also affect the negotiations, which will likely continue in a way or another in the coming months. 11/

In the worst case scenario, insufficient preparation and bad decisions may lead to a reactive state, where the limited quality reserves are forced to rush from one sector to prevent emerging crises at the expense of another direction, attriting them in the process. 10/

For Ukraine, timely withdrawals from unfavorable positions and careful management of reserves are key elements for a successful defence this summer. The tendency of holding onto nearly encircled pockets usually causes unnecessary losses without significant tactical benefit. 9/