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Arman Kafai

@armankafai.bsky.social

Current: πŸš™ Data Analyst Contributor: ✍️ @backheeled.com Prev: ⚽️ Data w/ FC Dallas β˜„οΈUT Dallas β€˜19/20 BS/MS Economics https://footyanalyticmusings.substack.com/

1,174 Followers  |  403 Following  |  872 Posts  |  Joined: 14.11.2024  |  2.2207

Latest posts by armankafai.bsky.social on Bluesky

Maybe it’s because the ecosystems have been split between BlueSky and X but even then I’m not sure. Also could be because I’m in Dallas and well… not much of a presence here compared to other cities

16.10.2025 14:58 β€” πŸ‘ 7    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

I mean it’s always had that though. Maybe it’s an indictment of how closely I’ve been following but I feel like I’ve been following as close as I used to? Dunno, just feels like everything is dead

16.10.2025 14:06 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Is it just me or is MLS just really slowing down going into the playoffs? Shouldn’t be with all of the great storylines but it sure feels like it’s dragging on compared to other seasons

16.10.2025 14:00 β€” πŸ‘ 19    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 8    πŸ“Œ 2
Preview
πŸ‡ΈπŸ‡· Menzo moves past hardships to push Suriname 'sons' toward World Cup The Ajax legend has The Natio atop Group A ahead of Friday's key match against Guatemala.

An answer to a question I asked in a news conference yesterday earned a round of applause from journalists here in Suriname as Shaquille Pinas described manager Stanley Menzo.

Here's profile of Menzo, who has every right to feel bitter but chooses joy:
getconcacafed.substack.com/p/menzo-move...

10.10.2025 18:44 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
a soccer player wearing a white aia jersey is standing on the field . ALT: a soccer player wearing a white aia jersey is standing on the field .
06.10.2025 21:51 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Why am I highlighting the East? Nashville/Orlando are gonna be lower seeded teams. Miami ignore their xGD… they have Messi.

But NYCFC wasn’t too shabby either. All are either gonna be lower seeds or the four seed. Gonna be tough

06.10.2025 21:48 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Love this from Tony. I’m looking at the 7 teams that have a positive xGD vs playoff teams. Seems like most teams will beat bad teams, but very few teams will consistently perform vs playoff level teams.

The East is looking like a bloodbath

06.10.2025 21:37 β€” πŸ‘ 7    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
GAM makes the world go round How the September 2025 GAM Release sets up teams for the 2026 off-season

I analyzed some of the more interesting storylines from the latest roster profiles and GAM release as we enter the end of the MLS regular season. How will the new rules about carrying over GAM impact teams in 2026? Seems like a bit more than we expected.

03.10.2025 16:24 β€” πŸ‘ 17    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Marcel Hartel was a great player joining MLS from St. Pauli and again, like we say with Musa, has been wasted at St. Louis. Legit a great player imo that’s been stuck on mediocre STL team

05.10.2025 01:11 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
GAM makes the world go round How the September 2025 GAM Release sets up teams for the 2026 off-season

I analyzed some of the more interesting storylines from the latest roster profiles and GAM release as we enter the end of the MLS regular season. How will the new rules about carrying over GAM impact teams in 2026? Seems like a bit more than we expected.

03.10.2025 16:24 β€” πŸ‘ 17    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

That’s totally fair. Just watched a ton of Dallas games and without him they’d be wooden spoon hands down. His goals added isn’t crazy as well relative to the other guys but still top 30 (and I’d wager higher as of recently)

02.10.2025 17:37 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

New meta is the 2+2

01.10.2025 05:28 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Is there a clear consensus on how to build a roster? Not yet, but going into our first full year, we're going to see how the GAM that wasn't used due to teams using the GAM received from the model will impact roster construction in 2026.

01.10.2025 04:35 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

One thing that I've been looking at is the roster construction mechanisms for the teams that are in the Supporters' Shield Race.

-PHI (3+3 but could be 2+4)
-CIN (2+4)
-SD (2+4)
-VAN (2+4)
-NYC (2+4)
-MIA (3+3)
-MIN (2+4)
-CHA (2+4)
-NSH (3+3)
-LAFC (2+4)

7/10 are 2+4

01.10.2025 04:35 β€” πŸ‘ 9    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 0

add another one chef

01.10.2025 01:21 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Alright I’m scratching what I’m saying. He should be in the MVP race. I don’t care about where Dallas is on the table. Had two key moments in that game that led to both goals for Dallas. It’s unreal

01.10.2025 00:28 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

I'm sure FC Dallas would want a big-time fee, but I'd be shocked if MLS teams weren't sniffing around Petar Musa this winter in hopes of acquiring him in a cashfer.

30.09.2025 17:52 β€” πŸ‘ 9    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

FCD would be struggling without him. But one of his impacts is just his consistent work rate. On Julio’s goal Saturday, he won a header off a double team, which kept the ball alive for the goal. It’s crazy that Dallas has struggled like they have over the last two seasons with him there

30.09.2025 17:40 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

If FC Dallas wasn’t so low in the table, we’d be talking about Petar Musa as an MVP candidate. When it comes to the definition of MVP for a team, he’s almost the perfect example. Leads the team in scoring by an insane margin, leads them in npxG, basically leads the team in xA.

30.09.2025 17:40 β€” πŸ‘ 17    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 2

Assume that every club will carry this total over to 2026.

Holy shit Minnesota

26.09.2025 14:24 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

I uhhhh... have a podcast now (it's about women's soccer though so it's ok)

22.09.2025 16:16 β€” πŸ‘ 19    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

Add a game-winning assist to the list

22.09.2025 01:12 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Win now

21.09.2025 03:56 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Latte Lath is on $4M. Musa is on $2.5M. Let’s say Musa wants to match that to move, so the same

21.09.2025 02:38 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Okay maybe not exactly $23M but slightly higher than the $20M. Player outside of MLS, maybe from another good league in Europe

21.09.2025 02:26 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Hypothetical I’m throwing out to the BlueSky MLS community. Would you rather sign Petar Musa away from FC Dallas for $20M or sign a forward from another league for $23M (think Latte Lath like profile)?

21.09.2025 02:24 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 5    πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
The mechanics behind Miles Robinson's extension Why Robinson's extension may actually help Cincy's cap number instead of hinder it

Miles Robinson signed an extension last week that reportedly put him into the Designated Player slot. The reaction around the deal has been pretty mixed and people have been pointing out the constraints Cincinnati will now have. But does it really hurt them? My thoughts for FAM:

16.09.2025 15:55 β€” πŸ‘ 11    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 2
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The MLS teams charting their own path to defensive excellence Here are the elite units proving there is no one right way to defend.

MLS is a league known for its tactical variety.

Which defensive approaches, then, have excelled across the league in 2025?

@cata-bush.bsky.social examines the data and film to uncover elite units in MLS that prove there's no one right way to defend.

Read ‡️
www.backheeled.com/mls-best-def...

18.09.2025 18:28 β€” πŸ‘ 20    πŸ” 5    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1

Austin FC at the death! Holy smokes, what a last couple of games for CJ Fodrey. GW goal vs SKC and now the goal to put them through to the USOC Final.

18.09.2025 03:20 β€” πŸ‘ 8    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1

Last call for this! Why I believe the Miles Robinson extension isn’t as bad as people initially thought it would be

17.09.2025 23:45 β€” πŸ‘ 16    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

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