Lakshya Jain

This is our final Post piece; we’ve elected to move in a different direction as a firm. But it has been a huge honor to write for The Post — big thanks to @strombergsteve.bsky.social and David Shipley for bringing us on board and to @benjysarlin.bsky.social for being a great editor.

Opinion | This isn’t the same Democratic Party as Trump’s first term Polls show a base of voters who’ve grown more liberal and less trusting of leaders in both parties.

"Trump’s rise has generated much commentary on the evolving nature of the Republican base," @lakshya.splitticket.org and Harrison Lavelle write.

"Less discussed are the dramatic ways that the Democratic Party has changed over the same period, partly in response."

Opinion | This isn’t the same Democratic Party as Trump’s first term Polls show a base of voters who’ve grown more liberal and less trusting of leaders in both parties.

An underrated part of the divide between Dem leadership and the Dem base: over the last 8 years, Democratic voters have slowly become more and more liberal, but the leaders haven’t followed suit in Trump v2.

Our final piece for the Washington Post: wapo.st/4mu6AMR

that's probably fair, yeah

so in aggregate I think you lose 3 in Texas (I think Dems win Cuellar and Gonzalez's seat even then), 2 in Florida, 1 in Missouri (+ Wagner), 2 in Ohio, and 1 in Indiana, which makes 10.

I appreciate the support but I genuinely wouldn't put much thought into this. People will read whatever they want and just believe anything they want to believe, regardless of what's true regarding my views on Dem policy or midterm odds. Bad faith, but part of the deal — and why I'm not here :)

precisely. but i do not view most of what is flagged in the table as "vulnerable" truly beyond Wagner's MO-02 and *maybe* one seat in Florida across the 5. perhaps you can argue for one in Ohio if you really try.

yeah so it's a *combination* of that and seats currently held by democrats that are drawn to be Trump +18 or whatever.

what is the question? happy to engage, I just don't understand.

I mean, I stand by everything I said there. I'm not sure what the "gotcha" is.

start to hit D+12 or so and then some of these gerrymanders could really begin to face some trouble.

no I think the reason I stay on X is not to determine political sentiment — it's to chat with people who I think are especially good at that. there are still far more people on X for that than there are on bluesky.

you can't group R+10 and R+20 seats in the same bucket. that is the partisan difference between Louisiana and Ohio. what are we even saying here.

where the hell are you getting any of this from lol, I've said the GOP can lose a bunch of R+10 seats. I gave a huge presentation on it. what I have said is that it's cope to expect R+20 seats to all flip as a result of the gerrymanders. and it is. those didn't even flip in 2018. OK-05 was R+18.

popping in because someone sent me this and enough people seem to care about what i say for me to clarify: there isn't anywhere I've said the GOP have the midterms on lock. like i've said dozens of times, dems are big favorites to win the house.

I think people are just making stuff up to be mad at.

you don't need to follow me back but let me engage: I think the tweet accurately diagnoses that the Biden presidency's massive unpopularity (plus Biden's unpopularity) has created a HUGE deficit for Democrats and we should reckon with what got us there.

broadly I think Bluesky and X are both full of neurotic morons (X moreso). however, there is enough interaction on X for elections and enough sane people are still there to make it kind of worthwhile. here it's mostly just angry people yelling if I say anything other than "midterms are D+25".

Someone sent me this so I'm here because I think at that point it's actually worth pointing out to well-meaning people what I've said and haven't said about the midterms.

I don't post here much any longer but I have no idea where half of you get half of the things I've supposedly said from because anyone thinking I've said the Democrats are about to "lose the midterms" is scrolling someone else's feed and thinking it's me, or making up stuff to be mad at.

Democrats are extremely likely to flip the House and the question is "what is the scale of the gains". The GOP gerrymandering Texas/Indiana/Missouri to high hell means that 10 new R+20 seats are very likely out of reach (they didn't flip even in 2018). But Dems only need a few flips to win the House

Opinion | Trump’s Medicaid cuts could break the MAGA coalition The president grew the GOP tent in his three runs. His One Big Beautiful Bill could change that.

"There’s strong evidence that voters whom President Donald Trump brought into the Republican Party over his three presidential runs will be especially affected by the proposed funding changes to health care."

The latest from Split Ticket's @lakshya.splitticket.org and Harrison Lavelle:

no, it's still nonsense. elon didn't do anything to voting machines. he can't. he's not some all-powerful overseers. harris just lost the election. this is all easily explainable.

Seriously, please do not let your brain get suckered into the same garbage that MAGA has fallen victim to. There is no need to go conspiracy-mode for easily explainable stuff. Donald Trump won. Rebekah Jones and the "Election Truth Alliance" are just misunderstanding and bastardizing data.

Actually, the best thing to do with election denial nonsense is to not even amplify it to debunk. Just remember that when you see anyone claim "this precinct that gave Harris 0 votes gave the Democrat 90% of the votes!" it's just them discovering bloc voting by Jewish voters.

Why are we celebrating traitors that fired upon US soldiers in a bid to keep people enslaved?

I will be damned if I allow a bunch of Confederate-waving January 6th apologists give the American people a lecture on flag waving.

There is ZERO reason to enter an argument about patriotism with people who still worship traitors to America 150+ years later.

They. Are. Breaking. The. Law.

I find this kind of response truly baffling. Yes, it will be hard & they’re gonna fuck around - but if you really believe there won’t be elections, what are you doing just, uh, posting? And what if you’re wrong? Then what?

We talk about the differences between Democrats a lot, but Phil Murphy is the worst of the lot: not particularly great at winning elections by large margins, ideologically nowhere, quite obviously corrupt, and pretty useless as a politician.

Not sure any state is going to get a more massive upgrade in same-party governance this cycle than New Jersey will if they swap Phil Murphy with Mikie Sherrill.

my guess is that trump will overreach on law enforcement against these protests and be punished for it, particularly if they are peaceful www.nytimes.com/2025/06/10/o...