Private equity/private credit/etc

China vs USA: If it's Obvious...

When we first posted this note it was quite contrarian, a little controversial, and very counterintuitive, but it seems to be playing out exactly.

Why this "obvious loser" of the election may actually be a big winner: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...

Wayne Gretzky standing at podium that says “United for Ukraine”

Has Wayne Gretzky said anything about Donald Trump’s position on Ukraine yet?

Without going all Martin Niemöller here, I do think that it's bad not to speak up for immigrants, transgender Americans, civil servants, women, Ukraine, and everyone else the MAGA bullies are going after. We're beyond picking and choosing whom to defend. It's time to stand up and speak out.

YouTube video by The Ezra Klein Show Don't Believe Him | The Ezra Klein Show

From @ezrakleinbot.bsky.social. "If you’re always consumed by the next outrage, you can’t look closely at the last one. The impression of Trump’s power remains; the fact that he keeps stepping on rakes is missed. The projection of strength obscures the reality of weakness. Don’t believe him."

How Hitler Dismantled a Democracy in 53 Days He used the constitution to shatter the constitution.

How Hitler Dismantled a Democracy in 35 Days ~ gift link:
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...

Trump has signed his tariffs.

The final slide from my undergraduate political economy course.

The N.A. auto industry supply and assembly chain is entirely regional and cross-border.It would take years and cost OEMs many billions to reorient this to a different (and more expensive) model. This is one of the reasons why this nonsense probably ends soon. Mass US auto worker layoffs otherwise.

Interesting thread pointing to potential for lumber scarcity ahead thanks to tariffs and other factors

To put the OMB grant freeze in context, roughly 17.5% of Wisconsin’s revenue comes from federal grants in aid last I checked. Overall, federal grants account for roughly 36% of all state government budgets in US. In a number of states the federal share is even higher.

Does anyone remember this? The US produced this medal of Cdn Ambassador Ken Taylor to commemorate the cooperation and friendship when our two countries worked to save US citizens in Iran in 1980

Really, how much does undocumented immigration push down wages of native born workers? Data, evidence #econsky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Trump’s Immigration Threats Are Already Wrecking the Food Industry Immigrant farm workers are too scared to show up to work.

In a country that is more or less at full employment, you sort of wonder about the wisdom of mass deportations newrepublic.com/post/190555/...

Exponential Growth xkcd.com/2936

Agreed. The private equity business acquisitions of 2019 thru 2022 were statistically the most expensive and most levered in history. It’s possible that a hot IPO market could help salvage disastrous returns for those funds, offloading losses to the public. But are there enough greater fools?

KFC Introduces New Bird-Flu Dipping Vaccine

KFC Introduces New Bird-Flu Dipping Vaccine

Judge's opening in landmark Simmons Serta that overturned an aggressive uptiering that harmed excluded lenders: "Ratable treatment is an important background norm of corporate finance. Pursuant to this norm, a borrower must treat all of its similarly situated lenders, well, similarly"

Updated: Highway 99 remains closed near Lions Bay after landslide There is no estimated time of reopening.

There is no estimated time of reopening.

Classic windstorm for the Lower Mainland on Saturday, with gusts over 90 km/h across the SW, but 80+ km/h wind gusts are fair game well inland. #BCStorm

A few notes on this morning's #Tornado Warning for San Francisco from NWS Bay Area (I am still traveling, so my live interactions are still somewhat limited):

1) Yes, a formal warning was issued by NWS for San Francisco this AM based on a suggestive radar signature. #CAwx [1/7]

BTW, these climate blogs, which focus on both underlying science and unfolding real-world events, are a truly excellent and effective use of NOAA resources. I hope they continue indefinitely, and are ideally expanded in scope!

Why millions voted for both Trump and progressive policies Trump voters backed abortion, minimum wage, and family leave — and don't get that Project 2025 would take it away

Can’t be shared on Zuck sites in Canada, as *news*, but best piece of post-facto analysis I have seen. www.salon.com/2024/11/08/a...

A problem in post election narratives imho…too many dismiss billions & billions spent on propaganda tapping into fears & prejudices, systematic dismantling of our info ecosystem & years of painstaking voter suppression as having no impact & it’s about the price of eggs or bad policy messaging

Super normal stuff...

Heat map-style graphic showing monthly air temperature rankings in the Arctic at the 925 hPa level for each month from January 1979 to November 2024. There is a long-term warming trend evident in each month. Blue shading is shown for colder months, and red shading is shown for warmer months. A yellow number is shown for each grid box to display the actual temperature ranking. November was the 6th warmest November on record.

#Arctic air temperature rank by month over the satellite era - now updated through November 2024. Nearly all of the top 10 warmest years per each month are since 2000.

+ Ranks: 1=warmest (red), 45/46=coldest (blue)
+ Download visual: zacklabe.com/arctic-tempe...

Weekly Macro Themes Report www.topdowncharts.pro/p/weekly-mac...

This week: "GSV" vs "ULG" (global equities), emerging markets equities + fixed income, Frontier Markets, and update on gold price outlook...