Reverse Enigma

Early 2026 NBA Draft Big Board: Top 20 Prospect Overview The 2026 NBA draft class is shaping up to be an exciting group, headlined by elite talent across positions.

New article out: a broad look at my Top 20 guys for the 2026 draft.

hardscreenherald.substack.com/p/early-2026...

#NBASKY

Thirty Teams, Eleven Dialects Clustering playtypes to decode how each offense speaks

“Everyone runs pick-and-roll and jacks threes.” Kinda… but not really. I clustered team styles from iso/DHO/PnR to transition + O-glass and found 11 distinct identities. Dive in: open.substack.com/pub/hardscre... #NBASKY

LASER: A Metric for Capturing Shooting Threat and Spacing Why 3-Point Percentage Falls Short as a Threat Metric

New article up:
LASER (shooting threat, not just %) + BOOST (team spacing compounding).

Top LASER seasons: 2015–16 Curry, 2014–15 Korver, 2024–25 LaVine.
Top BOOST teams: 2023–25 Celtics, 2017–18 Rockets, 2016–17 Cavs.

Full piece + interactive tables: tinyurl.com/yck7n5u4

From Dragic to Giannis: A Data-Driven Map of NBA Play Styles Clustering player seasons shows who plays alike, and what teams are missing

Just published: a deep dive into my player style clustering tool. From Dragic’s 2014 breakout to Giannis’s one-of-one profile, from OKC’s balance to the Lakers’ gaps - mapping the NBA by how guys actually play. Shoutout @gabriel1200.bsky.social for hosting the tool.

tinyurl.com/2p9rp8wm

#NBASKY

Shot Quality in High Definition: The Play-by-Play Upgrade Recap: The Old Tracking-Based Model (Bins and Baselines)

Just dropped the new Shot-Making Model 2.0 - now covering 1996–2025 with play-by-play data, arena bias fixes, and era adjustments.
Curry ‘16 is still untouchable, KD has multiple all-time seasons, and some hidden gems pop up too.
🔗 hardscreenherald.substack.com/p/shot-quali...

#NBAKSY

Gonna finish the write up on shotquality model v2 soon. This version goes back to the 96-97 season, and should be more comprehensive. Here are the top guys from that season

New release for #NBAKSY, just in time for your morning coffee.
courtsketch.com/shotmaking
This is CourtSketchs's shotmaking page. Based upon @reverseenigma.bsky.social 's modeling work, it allows you to assess player shotmaking relative to shot quality for any player season over the last 12 years.🧵

Castle on the other hand, I think has a bit more of an avenue to improve. Honestly big boost would just be not giving him the ball as much and using him more as a connective wing. Let him take more spot ups(which need to improve) and attack closeouts more, and run hard

Especially with Sarr. My concern with him was that he’s kind of a big, who can’t “big”. Not a great finisher, not much of a rim runner etc. So you kind of end up really banking on him being this pseudo wing on offense. And he doesn’t have a great baseline to fall back on.

Beyond the Box Score: How Good Are You Really At Making Shots Who actually adds points once you account for the kinds of shots they take?

New article on trying to measure Shotmaking and Shot Quality open.substack.com/pub/hardscre... The data will be available soon on nbavisuals.com

Tyrese Haliburton: The Modern Stockton – Master of the Advantage Tyrese Haliburton doesn’t attack you so much as he takes what you give him.

New piece is up: on Tyrese Haliburton, the echoes of John Stockton, and why he feels so different from other stars.

Tyrese Haliburton: The Modern Stockton – Master of the Advantage
open.substack.com/pub/hardscre...

The New NBA CBA: Panic, Reality, and the Game Behind the Rules Separating Fact from Fiction

Just launched my Substack 🏀
First piece dives into the NBA CBA - what the first/second apron rules actually do, the panic they’ve caused, and why some of the loudest fears are a bit overblown. open.substack.com/pub/hardscre...

Here are the east teams.

Inspired by @iztokfranko.bsky.social latest post, wanted to see how the western conference teams looked broken down using the clusters from nbavisuals.com/player_style
Cluster names still need some work.

How the West Is Built A data-driven look at player archetypes for the top 10 Western Conference contenders including the Lakers and Mavericks

How are the top 10 teams in the West really built?
I ran a clustering model on 300+ players to break down offensive archetypes. And reveal strengths, gaps, and roster building shifts from last season.

Lakers, Mavs, Nuggets, OKC, Rockets... all included👇
digginbasketball.substack.com/p/nba-west-p...

I kind of trust the raptors to figure out how to make it work. They have liked these kinds of guys in the past, and figured out ways to slot them in.

I have questions, but i think its workable. The raptors like playing multiple guys that can handle and drive, and CMB can slot into that pretty well. I think there are ways to make it work with him at the 4 next to Poeltl, but he will also thrive as a 5 next to B
arnes.

New feature out!
This is Court Sketches's playlist tool.
Give it any team, player and date range combination across the last 5 seasons, and it will serve you a stylized playlist of filterable clips, one you can share with the click of a button. Let me know what you think!

nbavisuals.com/playlist

The draft cycle continues. Very early look at my board for 2026. Should be a fun class

Warriors: Alex Toohey. Big wing with feel who rebounds, cuts, and keeps the ball moving. Reminds me of Otto Porter Jr’s plug-and-play value in Kerr’s motion offense.

Celtics: Amari Williams. Boston values bigs who pass up top; Williams makes quick reads in delay sets, screens, and protects the rim. Good depth behind Horford and Kornet.

Pacers: Kam Jones. Indy lands a steady decision maker who scores or spots up and keeps pace with Haliburton’s tempo. Loved his off-movement shooting at Marquette; great fit for the Carlisle system

Lakers: Adou Thiero. Best move was adding a defensive wing, sorting the big spot later. Thiero is a live-wire slasher who can guard 1-4 and finish above the rim. Even without a jumper he can be their DJJ-style spark.

Some second round steals I loved:
Charlotte: Sion James and Ryan Kalkbrenner. Hornets grab the draft’s most NBA ready rim protector plus a connective wing who moves the ball and defends. Nice mix of spacing and interior presence. Been a while since I thought Charlotte nailed the draft. Good change

Jase Richardson ➜ Magic
Orlando craved shooting and quick decision making, and Jase Richardson supplies both. Lethal shooter, zips the extra pass, and thrives as a secondary handler. The Magic’s length blankets his small frame and amplifies his strengths.

Asa Newell gives Atlanta the vertical punch it lacked. 6-10 pogo finisher who sprints lanes and hammers lobs from arguably the best lob passer in the NBA. Gives them a nice counter to the KP outside presence, and some much needed finishing to the worst team in that area last year.

Kasparas Jakucionis ➜ Heat
Kasparas Jakucionis sliding to Miami feels inevitable. Tall Dragic vibes: crafty pace shifts, slither drives, slick PnR reads. Can steer bench units or play off Bam handoffs, and Heat infrastructure should harden some of his deficiencies.

Walter Clayton Jr. ➜ Utah
Walter Clayton Jr. lands in Utah where Will Hardy’s motion offense shines. Elite bomber with deep pull-up range that forces tighter tags and opens lanes for their grab bag of guards. Even if he never runs the show, that shooting gravity is real.

Thomas Sorber ➜ OKC
OKC grabs Thomas Sorber and the devastating defense gets another drop anchor. 7-6 wingspan, soft hands, great passer. Vacuums boards, sets walls for SGA, and can fill a Hartenstein-style role on a rookie deal.

Some of my favorite draft fits so far:

Cedric Coward to Memphis is pretty seamless. With Bane gone they needed a rangy wing who can spot up, cut, and guard 1-3.