Dave Throup

Rainfall distribution has been very uneven over the last week. Some SW parts have seen well over 100mm, while central areas very little if any.

After a few more unsettled days (where rain will mainly fall over the same areas) it’s likely to turn much drier again till month end.

On the floods special

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

The acceleration of heating is very worrying.

If you calculated when the 1.5° target will be breached on a 30 year trend in 2005 it would have been 2040.

If you project it from current trend it will be over 10 years earlier in 2029.

apps.climate.copernicus.eu/global-tempe...

Unusually, January was colder than average, when compared to the last 30 year climate.

However, it would have been entirely normal if we compare it with 1961-90 values.

Shows how fast things are changing.

Met Office three month outlook suggesting a considerably greater chance than normal of mild, wet and windy conditions to dominate, particularly during February & March.

Impacts from successive Atlantic storms more likely than normal.

Rise in carbon dioxide off track for limiting global warming to 1.5°C The increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) is now incompatible with IPCC pathways which remain below 1.5°C, a Met Office study finds.

The chances of limiting global heating to 1.5° died years ago.

If we wait until the official definition of 1.5° averaged over 30 years to be reached before taking meaningful action we’ll see individual years of 2-3°. Which is catastrophic.

www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/new...

Yes fog considerably lower today - as seen in these 2 from North Hill

Another very decent day above the freezing fog on the Malverns.

Fog level was considerably lower than the December display - around 140m today, 350m in December.

Very timely study published today on the increase in whiplash climate events as a result of global heating.

These are rapid transitions from drought to flood and vice versa. They’ve already increased by 50% and projected to double in future.

www.nature.com/articles/s43...

Only occasional forays here I’m afraid.

Can’t manage 2 feeds!

Floodwater rapidly turning to ice in Worcester

Worcester’s new Kepax Bridge is magnificent.

Very

4th large flood of the season today in Worcester.

One of those special days on the Malvern Hills.

Temperature inversion and fog.

Some remarkable sights on the Malverns this afternoon.

When I was there inversion level was about 350 metres. Photo taken on top of Pinnacle Hill at 357m and the only thing poking out of the fog south of the Wyche Cutting.

5°C in the fog, I reckon 12°C above it.

Very nice Worcestershire sunset as the mist was rising

2024 saw multiple heat and rainfall records across the UK as the atmosphere continues to warm primarily due to human carbon emissions.

2025 will undoubtedly see more.

www.metoffice.gov.uk/blog/2024/re...

Malvern Hills District Council are responsible for checking and enforcement of planning conditions and I don’t know what involvement they’ve had (if any).

But this site seems to back up @WildJustice_org findings.

Anyone with similar or (hopefully) different experience?

Ends.

In summary, this site has delivered almost none of the promised environmental outcomes after 8 years.

Yes, it looks quite nice and provides useful green space but the only real benefit to wildlife is the developing area of scrubland as a result of zero maintenance!

Wetland bits.

A green drainage scheme was constructed but does not function as a wetland. Levels are all wrong. Bone dry 95% of the time, occasional ponding in extreme rainfall.

No chance of ever being a functional wetland area.

Trees

5 of the original 25 standard trees specified on the plan survive.

Three maples in the eastern corner give a glimpse of what could have happened with some maintenance. Nice informal clump with thriving native shrubs beneath.

Woodland planting areas.

Nope

Not had any maintenance since planted. All planted trees have died, some shrubs survive but bramble encroachment is extensive. Some self set sycamores thriving.

Almost impossible to access now!

Wildflower area.

Nope.

A few early attempts were made to mow it but not in the last 5 years. Brambles, perennials and some woody shrubs rapidly turning it into scrubland.

Not bad habitat but definitely not wildflower meadow promised which needs specific management.

A very nice seating area with nicely trimmed native shrubs and stunning views of the Malverns. Again, very well used by locals.

And then there’s the path to nowhere. No idea why but it was on the plans so they did it!

So far so good.

But …

So 8 years or so later, how have we done?

There is a nice area of amenity grass, well used by local kids and dog owners and regularly mowed (whether it needs it or not).

Well manicured perimeter hedge.

In short the main commitments were

an area of amenity grass
benches, paths and viewing area
a wildflower area
areas of woodland tree planting and feature trees
a sustainable drainage scheme with wetland plants

As with any significant development, a huge amount of plans accompanied the planning application, including detailed proposals for landscaping and environmental works.

These included detailed drawings and schedules of work.

In 2014 Bovis Homes were granted permission on appeal (it was very controversial at the time) to build 45 houses on a greenfield site in Powick, Worcestershire.

Work began later that year and the site was complete about 18 months later.

A recent report by @WildJustice_org suggests that developers aren’t delivering promised environmental outcomes on new developments.

wildjustice.org.uk/general/lost-n…

So I thought I’d put it to the test on a newish housing site close to me.

A 🧵