Harry Zekollari

La fonte des glaciers impactera jusqu’à la Belgique Bonne nouvelle : on peut encore sauver une grande partie des glaciers. Si le réchauffement climatique est limité à 1,5 °C par rapport aux valeurs préindustrielles, comme le prévoit l’accord de Paris, il est possible de préserver plus de la moitié de la masse des glaciers dans le monde. En revanche, si l’on reste sur la trajectoire empruntée par les politiques climatiques actuelles et menant à environ 2,7 °C de réchauffement, seul un peu plus d’un quart subsistera. C’est l’une des conclusions d’une très vaste étude, menée par une équipe internationale de 25 chercheurs s’appuyant sur l’utilisation de pas moins de huit modèles différents. Ce qui rend cette étude particulièrement remarquable, c’est qu’elle s’intéresse à l’évolution des glaciers sur le long terme.

La fonte des glaciers impactera jusqu’à la Belgique

Bonne nouvelle : on peut encore sauver une grande partie des glaciers. Si le réchauffement climatique est limité à 1,5 °C par rapport aux valeurs préindustrielles, comme le prévoit l’accord de Paris, il est possible de préserver plus de la moitié…

„Een paar jaar geleden zou ik nog van mijn stoel zijn gevallen bij het zien van deze resultaten. Maar inmiddels liggen deze cijfers helaas in de lijn der verwachtingen." @harryzeko.bsky.social

@gemmatetlow.bsky.social @nrcwetenschap.bsky.social #glaciologie
www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2025/...

Tune in this morning for the opening of the June UN Climate Meetings #SB62 in Bonn 🇺🇳

The meetings drive forward progress on key issues and prepare decisions for adoption at COP30 in November.

UNFCCC Executive Secretary Simon Stiell will be giving an opening speech: youtube.com/live/N2co8huVN

In gesprek met topklimaatwetenschapper Joeri Rogelj | 6 juni 2025 Mis de keynote van Joeri Rogelj niet, die is aangevuld met sprekers uit domeinen zoals klimaatwetenschap, beleid, scenario's en rechtszaken.

Van harte welkom op het symposium "In gesprek met topklimaatwetenschapper Joeri Rogelj" nu vrijdag 9-12h @vubrussel.bsky.social, met keynote van @joerirogelj.bsky.social en korte lezingen van @cjsmith.be, @cohelongo.bsky.social, @harryzeko.bsky.social & mezelf. receptie. www.vub.be/nl/evenement...

Tourists hike to visit the Nigardsbreen glacier in Jostedal, Norway, in August 2022. | Bram Janssen/AP/File photo

The world’s glaciers are in dire health with almost 40% of their total mass already doomed, even if global temperatures stopped rising immediately, a new study has found: cnn.it/4kP9Cus

Irreversible glacier change and trough water for centuries after overshooting 1.5 °C - Nature Climate Change How mountain glaciers will react to temporarily overshooting 1.5 °C of warming is poorly understood. Here the authors show irreversible global glacier loss for centuries after overshoot, implying long...

🏔️🌍🌎🌏 New study warns: Even if we only temporarily exceed 1.5 °C, mountain glaciers face irreversible losses lasting centuries. Such an overshoot reduces glacier runoff, specifically in regions where some glaciers regrow.

Further interested? Check out our new publication: doi.org/10.1038/s415...

If we limit global warming to +1.5°C, more than half of non-polar glaciers can be saved.

This is the finding of an international collaborative study that calculated the potential ice loss of more than 200,000 glaciers: ethz.ch/en/news-and-...

Nearly 40% of the world’s glaciers are already doomed, scientists say | CNN The world’s glaciers are in dire health with almost 40% of their total mass already doomed even if global temperatures stopped rising immediately, a new study has found.

edition.cnn.com/2025/06/02/c...

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Almost 40% of glaciers are already doomed to melt, says a new Science study led by Belgian & European researchers. Limiting warming to 1.5°C could save half the ice. Every fraction of a degree counts: doi.org/10.1126/scie...

The importance of just one degree on glacier preservation - by holding temperature increase to +1.5°C, more than twice as much glacier mass remains compared with an increase of 2.7°C. “Our findings stress the need for stringent mitigation policies to ensure the long-term preservation of glaciers”.

📣 A new study by Harry Zekollari and others estimates that glaciers around the world will lose ~40% of their mass relative to 2020 even if we managed to keep warming at present-day levels (1.2°C above preindustrial). This committed loss would add 113mm to sea level. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Every +0.1°C of global warming leads to ~2% more glacier ice loss. Sticking to the #ParisAgreement (+1.5°C) would preserve over half the ice compared to current policies (+2.7°C). This is the result of a new study based, led by Harry Zekollari, Lilian Schuster & several co-authors from our group.

Glacier preservation doubled by limiting warming to 1.5°C versus 2.7°C Glaciers adapt slowly to changing climatic conditions, with long-term implications for sea-level rise and water supply. Using eight glacier models, we simulated global glacier evolution over multicent...

Landmark study shows that our current emissions pathway will destroy over 75% of glacier ice globally, but ambitious mitigation (1.5°C) can still save twice as much

www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Long-term committed glacier mass loss around the globe. In every circle, the blue part indicates the share of the glacier mass that will be lost irrespective of future warming (at present-day warming level of +1.2°C). Colored lines indicate the additional long-term committed mass loss to occur as global temperatures further increase. This is a simplified version of Fig. 3 of Zekollari, Schuster et al., 2025.

Final study of my PhD is out!
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/29/c...
Our multi-model, multi-millennial glacier study shows:
Every 0.1°C less warming preserves ~2% more mountain glacier mass; long-term impacts are much larger than 2100-only projections suggest.

⏰ New study shows ambitious mitigation (1.5°C) saves 2X as much ice globally (53% left) than our current pathway, which will destroy >75% glacier ice once it fully adjusts to a warmer climate

Every fraction of °C counts!

+0.1°C warmer = 2% more glacier mass lost

www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
🌊🧪

Climat : si rien ne change, les glaciers du monde perdront 76 % de leur masse Avec un réchauffement de + 2,7°C d’ici 2100, qui correspond aux engagements climatiques actuels des Etats, les glaciers du monde perdraient 76 % de leur masse, alerte une étude publiée ce jeudi 29 mai...

In French: www.liberation.fr/environnemen...

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In Spanish: www.rtve.es/noticias/202...

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Climate action could save half of world's vanishing glaciers, says study More than three-quarters of the world's glaciers are set to vanish if climate change continues unchecked, a major new study warned Thursday, fueling sea-level rise and jeopardizing water supplies for…

www.france24.com/en/live-news...

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Almost 40% of world’s glaciers already doomed due to climate crisis – study Glacier loss has profound effects worldwide and will soar to 75% on Earth’s heating trajectory, say scientists

www.theguardian.com/environment/...

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Some Glaciers Will Vanish No Matter What, Study Finds

Some (very nice!) coverage of our new study includes:

www.nytimes.com/2025/05/29/c...

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This study is the outcome of a multi-year effort realized as part of the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project – Phase 3 (GlacierMIP3), supported by @clicwcrp.bsky.social / @wcrpclimate.bsky.social

Special thanks to co-lead @lilianschuster.bsky.social, and everyone else who contributed!
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2025 International Year of Glaciers’ Preservation | International Year of Glaciers’ Preservation .

Our research is particularly relevant within the context of the UN’s 2025 International Year of Glaciers' Preservation (www.un-glaciers.org/en)

The choices we make the coming decades will echo through millennia.

This is not an activist speaking, this is science speaking.
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Why the mismatch?

Many glaciers keep losing mass for centuries after warming stabilizes.

Arctic Canada South has many large, gently-sloping glaciers. They survive 21st century due to their slow response, but can’t hang on much longer.

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Twenty-first century global glacier evolution under CMIP6 scenarios and the role of glacier-specific observations Abstract. Projecting the global evolution of glaciers is crucial to quantify future sea-level rise and changes in glacier-fed rivers. Recent intercomparison efforts have shown that a large part of the...

Some regions show dramatic long-term losses that aren’t obvious by 2100.

Take Arctic Canada South - expected to lose >80% of its mass in the long run under current climate.

But by 2100? It didn’t look so bad
(tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/..., www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...)

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Every 0.1°C of additional warming (between +1.5°C and +3.0°C) = ~2% more global glacier loss.

That means that even small increases in temperatures have immense long-term impacts.

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Under current policies (+2.7°C), we’re on track to only preserve a quarter of the current glacier mass (24%).

In contrast, under the Paris Agreement target of +1.5°C, more than half of the current global glacier mass can be saved (54%).

That’s double the ice!

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Even if global warming stopped at today’s level of +1.2°C (vs. preindustrial), we would still lose 39% of glacier mass - adding 10+ cm to sea-level rise.

Glaciers respond over long timescales, so a part of their fate is locked in.

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We modeled the long-term fate of the over 200,000 glaciers worldwide using eight glacier evolution models and 80 climate scenarios. We assumed temperatures stay constant for thousands of years to see where glaciers stabilize.

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⛰️ In a new study in @science.org, we project that 39% of the global glacier mass is committed to be lost irrespective of future warming.

However, a lot can still be saved - see title:
“Glacier preservation doubled by limiting warming to 1.5°C versus 2.7°C”

www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

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