Dan Pomerantz

New Hampshire is obviously a potential state to flip all the way around (see 2018). A dark horse true Blue wave state to have the legislature flip is Iowa especially if the tariffs and ag industry continues to be walloped!

Tbh the outcome actually mattered less than the messaging in that case. I’m typically more of a Good Outcomes matter more than Good Messaging… but in many ways the Messaging really was pivotal towards combatting Trump and their authoritarian lurch rather than the actual government funding bill!

He’s paving the way for Leader Schatz in 2028, though he’ll do alot to restore his historical rep if he can get a big win for Dems in this budget/ health care fight. It’s a hard gambit but there’s potentially a big win to be had! He also needs to right the ship with internal politics in NY, ME & MI!

Yeah he did a horrible job with the first government funding fight, a bad job with Laken Riley & endorsement politics in New York & Maine, and okay job with the OBBB fight, a good job with Judges and Senate Recruitment and a great job holding the line with this shutdown! Take the good with the bad!

I doubt Crockett could win the TX primary but I get it. I’m worried Sayed could beat Stevens or McMorrow in Michigan. I still think they win but that would be a problem for Dems there!

I only see them doing 1 obviously, but they also need to extend the ACA credits and have the tariff stuff stopped by the courts… but they also need the economy to get to place BETTER than 2018 AND they need to pump the brakes on the ICE raids (which I don’t see happening). And don’t forget the OBBB!

A guarantee of process but keeping the government funding and ACA Credit votes separate is a guarantee of vote failure for ACA Credits. It was hard enough for Dems to do IIJA & IRA separately… and that was an intraparty deal. No Deal!

And if Latino vote gets back to 2020 parity (let alone approaching 2008/2012 parity), Lombardo is toast! Gonna need to put in the work but it’s there for the taking!

She’d be favored to win without redistricting but if VA is redistricted as to be expected, she’s gonna romp!

I think this was bigger than 2006 tbh (it’s just the scale and scope of offices is smaller). The only ones that probably outdo this night are 2008 and 1974!

Yes! Dems won back a NYC council seat they lost 2 years ago in a Conservative Latino part of Bronx! They didn’t win back a Conservative Orthodox Jewish seat that flipped a couple cycles ago but it was uncontested! Also Suffolk County, Buffalo and Onondaga went hard for Dems! See @taniel.bsky.social

I mean 2008 was about as good of a showing for Dems as 1974… but yeah this was decisively better than even 2006 and 2017-2018. More akin to 2009-2010 for GOP in terms of scale and scope!

Yeah I think at least two or three of those gerrymander seats go to Dems in 2026! It’s a partial dummymander!

New Jersey is on track to flip FIVE more assembly seats?!?!?!? This is a bloodbath for Dems!

Yeah It’s honestly not in Dems best interest to try for one more seat. Especially now with MD & VA coming in where the safety of the gerrymander for Dems is much better. But with the Latino swings in NJ (and a lesser degree in VA) I could see the TX gerrymander backfiring somewhat!

It’s too bad that the VA Senate is only a slight majority… but I expect an assault weapon ban, codification of Roe & LGBT Civil Rights & Voting Rights Act Reforms as well as major boosts to childcare, education, Medicaid and Green Energy Funding!

Looks like the margins are getting worse and worse and we are getting to some real tail end of the normal bell curve like outcomes for Dems in VA! @alexcsinger86.bsky.social @chicyph80.bsky.social

@statenavigate.org has called it for Jay Jones! Huge! @samshirazi.bsky.social @alexcsinger86.bsky.social

Yeah Sherrill is gonna win somewhere between 9-12!

You might be right I just hadn’t seen the data on it yet. Been stuck looking at the VA stuff more closely!

I wanna wait til I see more from NJ… but it’s a bloodbath in VA and GA!

What are we expecting the split-ticketing for Spanberger & Jones is gonna be? I know it’s a bit different by region (more in Northern Suburban precincts vs SE Black Precincts) but are we thinking more like 5 point spread or 8+ point spread?

He said the GOP and Independent numbers were flipped which would have been a gain of about 4400 for Dems margin.

Hey I saw Umich said the Hudson data is wrong but he’s revised it!

Yeah I’ve changed my rating for the VA AG seeing how catastrophically anemic SWVA rural turnout is and how Black Precincts turnout in SEVA, while not super high, is significantly better than “Youngkin Surge” precincts. I’m rating this now Lean/Likely Jones and think 5+ margin makes sense!

Um that seems pretty good for Dems, especially considering it’s big swing last year!

Jay Jones has gotta be thanking his lucky stars for this turnout in the suburbs and college towns with anemic SWVA turnout! He’d really have loved the SEVA turnout to be better but I think it’s now gone from him being in a Tossup to a Lean/Likely Jones race. And 60+ HOD seats is realistic!

The low SWVA turnout makes me more bullish Jay Jones will pull this off! I’d love to see that SEVA rural AA vote is also high too but I’m thinking he could pull this off!

Yeah I agree! I think Jay Jones squeaks in based on what appears to be poor rural GOP turnout to offset split voters in North VA suburbs (though I still rate this as a true toss up). Trump’s Cuomo endorsement shifts Sliwa votes to Cuomo and soft Cuomo votes to Mamdani. And Sherill wins comfortably!

My copium is that I actually think Mikie Sherrill is gonna have undecideds break decisively for her to win NJ by 10! The politics of the ACA and SNAP shutdown stuff is particularly strong in a state like NJ!