Ireland Election Projections

Map showing largest party in each constituency: SF across border areas, Dublin and South West. FF in Midlands and South West. Scattered patches of FG and Independent Ireland.

Map of largest party per constituency:

SF, SD, Labour, Green, PBP-S add up to 79 seats. 8 short of a majority.

FF, FG and Independent Ireland with 85 seats, 2 short of a majority.

On these numbers, FF+FG+II gets closer to a majority than a left wing alliance.

But the left has nudged closer to the line in recent months.

(Whether its a formal coalition or an informal agreement, the maths is the same)

Parliament chart showing seats as stated in tweet.

Table showing seats as stated in tweet.

An IrishElections projection on the latest Ireland/Thinks
Sunday Independent poll

☘️ Sinn Féin — 44 Seats
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 41
⭐ Fine Gael — 36
🟪 Social Democrats — 21
🌹 Labour — 9
🟢 Independent Ireland — 8
💬 Independent — 6
🌳 Aontú — 4
✊ PBP-S — 4
🌱 Green — 1

From irishelections.ie/general

SF + SD + Lab + PBPS = 83 seats. 87 needed.

FF+FG = 72 seats. 87 Needed.

A broad left coalition gets closer to the majority line than FF-FG, but would need support from independents and would be very divided.

Map of Ireland coloured by largest party per constituency.

Table showing results as described in tweet

Our Projection based on the latest RedC research /
@businesspost.bsky.social poll:
☘️ Sinn Féin — 50 Seats
⭐ Fine Gael — 37
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 35
🟪 Social Democrats — 23
💬 Independent — 12
🌹 Labour — 9
🟢 Independent Ireland — 4
🌳 Aontú — 3
✊ PBP-S — 1

From irishelections.ie

An IrishElections projection on the latest Ireland/Thinks
Sunday Independent poll
☘️ Sinn Féin — 50 Seats
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 45
⭐ Fine Gael — 37
🟪 Social Democrats — 16
💬 Independent — 8 🌹
Labour — 7
🟢 Independent Ireland — 6
🌳 Aontú — 4
✊ PBP-S — 1

Good spot, we agree that seems pretty unlikely!

As you can imagine, projecting parties in places they didn't stand last time is very tricky!

We're going to keep working on it to make it as accurate as possible, although it'll never be perfect.

A projection for the next NI Assembly based on the latest LucidTalk - @belfasttelegraph.co.uk poll
☘️ SF — 23
🦁 DUP — 17
🤝 AP — 12
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 11
Ⓣ TUV — 12
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1

From devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ireland/

An IrishElections projection based on the latest IrelandThinks poll for @independent.ie

🟩 Fianna Fáil — 46 Seats
☘️ Sinn Féin — 44
⭐ Fine Gael — 39
🟪 Social Democrats — 18
🌹 Labour — 9
💬 Independent — 8
🟢 Independent Ireland — 5
🌳 Aontú — 3
✊ PBP-S — 2

irishelections.ie/general/

Irish Election Projections Create and share your own Irish election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!

We've finalised our Presidential projection with Connolly, Gavin and Humphreys as the only candidates to be nominated.

Play around with transfer rates and first preferences to see who could win!

Presets will be added once polls come in.

irishelections.ie/presidential/

A projection based on the latest Red C/Business Post poll:

☘️ Sinn Féin — 42 Seats
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 40
⭐ Fine Gael — 38
🟪 Social Democrats — 20
💬 Independent — 11
🌹 Labour — 9
🟢 Independent Ireland — 8
✊ PBP-S — 4
🌱 Green — 1
🌳 Aontú — 1

From @irishelection.bsky.social

Currently we have Connolly, Humphreys, Gavin, Sinn Féin and Other as options.

We'll update if anyone else is nominated and when SF pick a candidate, or decide not run.

If you leave the Transfer Friendliness on 1x it uses the numbers from 2024 for that party (or similar independents).

Dialling them up or down has a huge effect

Here's Humphreys on the same first preferences but double the Transfer Friendliness:

We've introduced an Irish Presidential Election projection!

Enter your first preferences and play with their transfer freindliness to project a winner.

irishelections.ie/presidential/

Irish Election Projections Create and share your own Irish election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!

A projection based on the Ireland Thinks poll for @independent.ie:

🟩 Fianna Fáil — 44 Seats
☘️ Sinn Féin — 40
⭐ Fine Gael — 38
🟪 Social Democrats — 19
💬 Independent — 11
🌹 Labour — 10
🟢 Independent Ireland — 7
🌳 Aontú — 2
✊ PBP-S — 2
⚪ Other — 1

irishelections.ie/general/

Irish Election Projections Create and share your own Irish election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!

🗳️🇮🇪Who’s Winning? We Actually Have the Data.

We’ve launched irishelections.ie — the place where Irish election projections make sense.
📊 Real-time seat forecasts
📈 Constituency breakdowns
🤓 Politics, but with fewer opinions and more numbers

👉 irishelections.ie