@devolvedelections.bsky.social
Tool to project your own results of the Scottish, Welsh, Northern Irish and London Elections 🗳️ https://devolvedelections.co.uk/ Donate: https://buymeacoffee.com/devolvedelections
Thanks, and no offence taken! We know they did badly before but a lot has changed - Labour's collapse mainly.
The projection from this poll has it a three way tie, all on very low shares (which does feel harsh on Labour).
Reform are a bit further back in our Nowcast average.
We'll be ready!
31.07.2025 09:32 — 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
These numbers are very similar to the recent by-election results in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse.
It puts Reform within 3% of winning in all three border seats.
The latest @scotvoting.bsky.social / @yougov.co.uk poll for the next Holyrood election:
🎗️ SNP — 58
🌹 Lab — 24
🌳 Con — 8
🌱 GP — 10
🐤 LD — 10
➡️ Ref — 19
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
🗳️🇮🇪Who’s Winning? We Actually Have the Data.
We’ve launched irishelections.ie — the place where Irish election projections make sense.
📊 Real-time seat forecasts
📈 Constituency breakdowns
🤓 Politics, but with fewer opinions and more numbers
👉 irishelections.ie
We have a little something for that too!
26.07.2025 10:39 — 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
Our latest Nowcast for the 2026 Senedd election:
Ref — 31 Seats
PC — 28
Lab — 25
Con — 6
LD — 4
GP — 2
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
Today's Nowcast for the next Assembly Election:
SF — 24 Seats
DUP — 20
AP — 15
UUP — 10
SDLP — 10
TUV — 10
GP — 1
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
Our current Scottish Parliamentary Nowcast:
SNP — 60 Seats
Lab — 22
Con — 12
GP — 11
LD — 7
Ref — 17
Alba — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
We're going to tweak this a bit more before we make it public, but we thought it was useful to show you how it *could* look.
devolvedelections.co.uk
In Scotland, Your Party could win list seats in most/all regions. They could cost Labour some constituency seats and possibly tip some Tory-SNP maginals over the line for the Conservatives.
This would all equalise on the list.
In Wales, they could get 2 seats but could cost Labour 5! Reform and the Tories grabbing some 6th seats as the left splits.
25.07.2025 08:39 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
Following the announcement of 'Your Party' yesterday we've started adding them to our projection. It's not live yet but here are some early findings.
Using ratios from some hypotheticals polls - Your Party would enter the Senedd (8 seats) and Holyrood (2) next year.
Laura Anne Jones defects to from Conservative to Reform giving them their first MS.
Our Nowcast has Reform winning 2 in the new Sir Fynwy Torfaen constituency which overlaps with Jones' current seat, the Conservatives projected to win 1.
Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
And that no changes are planned to Northern Ireland's photo ID restrictions which are already far stricter than those in GB.
An Australian or Indian passport doesn't count as valid ID for a commonwealth citizen.
We're concerned that the position of 16 year olds in NI Assembly elections in all this is unclear.
It's a big enough change that they should say it clearly, and a big enough omission to also say it clearly.
We're delighted to see the UK move to enfranchise more people and improve registration process.
Westminster elections will now align with the Senedd and Holyrood for the first time since 2014.
Our projection of the latest Beaufort Research's Senedd poll for @nation.cymru :
Lab — 30 Seats
Ref — 29
PC — 22
Con — 10
LD — 2
GP — 3
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
🚨 A new More in Common/Sky News poll for the Senedd.
Reform would be the largest party but have no clear path to government.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
This would put Reform out in front, but a PC-Lab coalition would be the most likely government.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
🚨 We've introduced a new tool which shows you how the Northern Ireland Executive is formed.
Just pick your justice minister, your opposition (if any), and press play!
👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ireland/ 👈
1 year ago today Labour swept to power. They won a huge majority of seats with an unremarkable share
I've put last year's results into our projection to see how Labour *could* have done if GE24 results had played out at the devolved tier in Scotland & Wales vs how they're doing now
It's not pretty
Map of Scottish constituencies uunder latest poll
New Ipsos Poll for @stv.news
SNP — 57 Seats
Lab — 25
GP — 16
Ref — 16
Con — 8
LD — 7
Alba — 0
Conservatives in 5th with just 1 constituency seat.
🚨 Our Coalition Builder tool is now live for Scottish and Welsh projections! 🗳️
Ever wondered what party alliances could form after an election? Now you can experiment with different outcomes, test majorities, and see how the numbers stack up — all with a few clicks. ✨
We crunched the numbers so you don’t have to 😎
Our Stormont Election Projection Tool just got a nod from @sluggerotoolepols.bsky.social 👀
Curious who's up, down, or hanging by a transfer? 📈 Dive in:
🗳️ Delighted that our Stormont Election Projection Tool is featured by @sluggerotoolepols.bsky.social ✨
Built on constituency level data to map potential 2027 outcomes. 📊
Read more: sluggerotoole.com/2025/06/30/i...
SNP 35%, Tory 17%, Green 15%, Reform 14%, Labour 11%
We have SNP comfortably leading a shattered field (before accounting for Ewing). If the Greens don't stand the SNP lead would increase further.
LD peaked at 15% ten years ago so winning it would be a big ask.
It's a safe SNP seat unless Ewing can hit 20% or polls change dramatically.
Curious about the tech behind our projections? Check out our latest post for the inside scoop! 👀
devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/civic-t...
For more info on the Assembly and how this works read here:
devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/intro-t...
Our new London Assembly projection tool is live!
Play with the numbers, explore the seats, and see who’s on track to run the show in 2028 (yes, we're a bit early).
Go on, have a poke around 👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/london/
