Devolved Election Projections

DUP up 4 seats, SF are up 1, UUP up 1

TUV down 3, Alliance down 1, PBP down 1. Green down 1.

But we've upgraded our transfer system since the last poll so it's not a 1 to 1 comparison.

Parliament chart of seats

List of seats per party, per constituency

Our projection based on the latest @belfasttelegraph.co.uk / LucidTalk poll:

☘️ SF — 24
🦁 DUP — 23
🤝 AP — 11
🔷 UUP — 11
🌹 SDLP — 11
Ⓣ TUV — 7
🌱 GP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1

Map of Ireland coloured by largest party per constituency.

Table showing results as described in tweet

Our Projection based on the latest RedC research /
@businesspost.bsky.social poll:
☘️ Sinn Féin — 50 Seats
⭐ Fine Gael — 37
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 35
🟪 Social Democrats — 23
💬 Independent — 12
🌹 Labour — 9
🟢 Independent Ireland — 4
🌳 Aontú — 3
✊ PBP-S — 1

From irishelections.ie

On current polling we think the SNP have about a 6.6% chance of a majority.

A broader Pro-Indy majority is considerably more likely

devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland-pro...

'DisUnited Kingdom' is one of those cliché titles for everything, but this is clearly a bad state of affairs for political unionism.

They need a plan which acknowledges that all the emergent nationalist parties are left-wing.

Northern Ireland is complicated by Alliance, the Greens and PBP who are neutral.

Nationalism is the biggest group 12% of the time, unionism wins 84%, but only gets a majority in some outlying scenarios (0.3%).

SF usually get the first minister role because of our rules

AMS in Scotland is boosting pro-Indy parties because their poll numbers are lower than in Wales.

After an incredible Welsh poll we now project First Ministers from Nationalist parties in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Nationalists in Wales even win a majority in over 20% of our simulations!

This happens 99% of the time in Scotland, and 0% in Northern Ireland.

It produces a big pro-Indy majority despite being behind in terms of votes.

The SNP continue to win the vast majority of constituencies, with the Lib Dems and Labour picking up a handful.

A projection on the latest Norstat poll for May's Scottish Parliament election

🎗️ SNP — 61
🌹 Lab — 18
➡️ Ref — 17
🌱 GP — 13
🌳 Con — 12
🐤 LD — 8
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0

devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

Labour, and especially Reform, are relying on list seats to get representation in the Scottish parliament.

Reform's best bet of a constituency seat is Dumfriesshire.

This amounts to a Pro-Indy majority in parliament. We could be 5 months away from pro Indy majorities in both Scotland and Wales!

The SNP are on course to win most seats across Scotland, with some Tory, Lib Dem and and Green spots.

Our Projection on the latest Survation/True North Advisors poll for May's Holyrood Election

🎗️ SNP — 58
🌹 Lab — 19
➡️ Ref — 19
🌳 Con — 13
🐤 LD — 11
🌱 GP — 9

devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

Yeah, pretty close to my quick guess. I really don't like the distorted thresholds.

If you put Powys and Gwynedd together I think you'd have a mathematically defencible system. But, it'd be geographically absurd.

Yeah, I know. But it Tops Up the seats of underrepresented parties.

The geographic size of the region doesn't change the name, but it does change how well it works + alongside the number of top up seats.

When I make Norway projection, I will.

76 County Seats + 20 Top Up

Works out as 40800 per seat

Powys gets 3 seats.
Gwent gets 15.

The threshold is just too different.

That kind of thing could work, but you'd quickly get into when-is-AMS-not-AMS territory.

Glad you enjoy it, a very slighly amended version of Allan's nominal results form the basis of it.

We also do Ireland if you're interested www.irishelections.ie/

Not necessarily, the populations are going to be wildly different so you'd get more seats in some places than others which impacts proportionality.

Effectively, it hurts smaller parties in rural areas.

Yeah I'm from NI. From having lived with STV for years and lectured on electoral systems, all I'll say is: if STV isn't the answer then the question is wrong.

Picking a system that gives you an advantage relies entirely on the assumption that nothing will change - and they don't see how ridiculous that is!

Just do proper PR and stop trying to be clever. Either decent sized list or (my beloved) STV.

"Labour possibly now doomed by their own changed system."

T'was always thus.

A Pro-Indy vote share of 50% is higher than the current numbers in Scotland.

A Plaid Cymru/Green deal would give the combined pro-Indy parties an outright majority.

A projection based on a remarkable @yougov.co.uk for @itvnews.bsky.social and @cardiffuni.bsky.social

🌼 PC — 40
➡️ Ref — 27
🌱 GP — 15
🌹 Lab — 6
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3

devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

Here's how that looks on the constituency level.

Reform would be the largest single party, but even with Tory support would be well short of the line needed to govern.

A deal involving PC, Lab & Green is the most likely outcome on these numbers

Our projection based on the latest @findoutnow.bsky.social poll for May's Senedd election.

➡️ Ref — 34
🌼 PC — 33
🌹 Lab — 10
🌱 GP — 9
🌳 Con — 7
🐤 LD — 3

From devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/