Devolved Election Projections

Their best chances are Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd and Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf. We have them about 3-5% shy so they'd only need a small improvement to get at least one of them.

With 505 responses over 20 days this isn't exactly the pinacle of polling.

But, the effective threshold is 10-12% so if the Green's average is 9% then they must cross it in a few places.

We also think Eluned Morgan would survive on these numbers.

Our projection for Senedd ‘26 based on the latest @nation.cymru / Beaufort Research Poll:

➡️ Ref — 30
🌼 PC — 29
🌹 Lab — 22
🌳 Con — 8
🌱 GP — 7

If this happened, it could be wipeout for the Lib Dems and a huge moment for the Greens.

From @devolvedelections.bsky.social

Pretty much. The biggest wildcards are the Greens and Reform.

Our system presumes the Greens will stand everywhere, but they probably won't. Them not standing would help the SNP.

And if Reform build a geographic area of strength then they would start picking up constituency seats

Our projection for Scottish Parl '26 based on the latest @Ipsos_in_the_UK / @STVNews poll

🎗️ SNP — 63
🌹 Lab — 18
🌳 Con — 10
🌱 GP — 16
🐤 LD — 5
➡️ Ref — 17
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0

devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

An IrishElections projection on the latest Ireland/Thinks
Sunday Independent poll
☘️ Sinn Féin — 50 Seats
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 45
⭐ Fine Gael — 37
🟪 Social Democrats — 16
💬 Independent — 8 🌹
Labour — 7
🟢 Independent Ireland — 6
🌳 Aontú — 4
✊ PBP-S — 1

Some tentative prospects for Reform UK in Northern Ireland… Eoghan Kelly is a postdoc on the University of Edinburgh’s Scottish Election Study and has lectured in Irish politics at Queen’s. Here, he uses his new election projection site to see how reform might...

Our latest experiment looking at Reform UK's chances in Northern Ireland based on the most recent @lucidtalk.bsky.social poll, in @sluggerotoolepols.bsky.social

sluggerotoole.com/2025/11/15/s...

Our Nowcast for the next NI Assembly.

☘️ SF — 22
🦁 DUP — 17
🤝 AP — 12
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 12
Ⓣ TUV — 12
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1

There's a tightening battle within unionism as the TUV reel in the DUP.

Alliance and Sinn Féin are also on the slide, with the Greens and SDLP ticking up.

Our current Nowcast for the Senedd 2026 election.
➡️ Ref — 37
🌼 PC — 28
🌹 Lab — 21
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3
🌱 GP — 2

There have been no polls since Plaid's convincing victory in Caerphilly so we can't see if it's had a broader effect.

devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

We don't include any party commissioned polls, like the most recent one by Alba. This is because parties will only publically release polls that make themselves look good, it's good PR for them but would mess up our polling average.

This is a blanket rule and applies to all parties.

Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!

There's not been a lot of polling for the 2026 Scottish Parliament recently so here's the current lay of the land.

SNP 🎗️ — 62
Lab 🌹 — 18
Con 🌳 — 12
GP 🌱 — 10
LD 🐤 — 10
Ref ➡️ — 17
Other ⚪ — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

Wales overnight, Scotland the next day. Perfect.

Hopefully, the Senedd doesn't follow Scotland's lead by selfishly insisting we get some sleep.

A huge caveat: This poll surveyed only 533 people over a three week period so the real error margin is pretty big.

A projection based on the latest Beaufort Research Senedd poll for @NationCymru:
➡️ Ref — 35
🌹 Lab — 24
🌼 PC — 24
🌱 GP — 6
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 2

from: devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

We've launched a new way of understanding polling error in Wales.

We run the Senedd election 1000x with realistic polling errors and regionalised swings.

It tracks parties, individual seats and ideologies.

We'll update it regularly to show changes.

👉 www.devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects

Want to see the range of possible outcomes at the next NI Assembly election if the polls aren't perfect?

We regularly run 1000 simulations to see how likely it is that each party wins their target seats.

Wales, Scotland and London are in the works.

👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/ni-projects/

Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!

Our projection for Scottish Parl '26 based on the Norstat poll for @thetimes.com :
🎗️ SNP — 56
➡️ Ref — 24
🌹 Lab — 20
🐤 LD — 12
🌳 Con — 10
🌱 GP — 7
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
From @devolvedelections.bsky.social
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

This is a projection based solely on todays poll. The Greens are on 10 in our Nowcast.

Holyrood Projection based on the latest Survation/Scotland in Union Poll:

🎗️ SNP — 63
🌹 Lab — 18
➡️ Ref — 18
🌳 Con — 12
🐤 LD — 11
🌱 GP — 7
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
From @devolvedelections.bsky.social devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

A projection based on the latest Barn Cymru poll for YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University for Senedd ‘26:

➡️ Ref — 37
🌼 PC — 36
🌹 Lab — 13
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3
🌱 GP — 2

From
@devolvedelections.bsky.social

We've been busy on the other site as Ireland's presidential election gets into full swing

Not all of these outcomes are equally likely and we only allow variation within the margin of error (about 2.5%).

There are some surprising outcomes that need small, but very specific, polling misses.

Scotland update:
We all know polls are not perfect, so we've added a new preset to help visualise the uncertainty of polling.

Below are some outcomes that are just a normal polling miss away based on current numbers

The numbers change with every click

We've added a new Margin of Error preset to our Northern Ireland projection!

It creates random votes share near the Nowcast so you can see what could happen with a normal polling miss.

Just click it again for a different scenario.

devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...

Graham Simpson (Central Region) defects from Conservative to Reform becoming their only MSP.

He's likely to hold a seat in the new region of Central and Lothians West.

devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!

Our first guest opinion piece from Lewis Norton looking ahead to the elections in Scotland and Wales.

2026 Devolved Elections: The Conservatives' Defining Test

devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/norton-...

We tested how a Single NI Unionist Party *could* do at the next election.

DUP + UUP + TUV: 38
A Unified Party: 38

devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/single-...

A projection based on the latest
@belfasttelegraph.co.uk / @lucidtalk.bsky.social
poll for NI Assembly ‘27:

☘️ SF — 24
🦁 DUP — 16
🤝 AP — 14
🔷 UUP — 10
🌹 SDLP — 10
Ⓣ TUV — 12
✊ PBP — 2
🌱 GP — 1
⚫ Ind — 1

From devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...

Thanks, and no offence taken! We know they did badly before but a lot has changed - Labour's collapse mainly.

The projection from this poll has it a three way tie, all on very low shares (which does feel harsh on Labour).

Reform are a bit further back in our Nowcast average.

We'll be ready!