LA Heat

Two dead and nearly 800K customers without power across South due to large, high impact winter storm New England bracing for upwards of 2' of snow, while Mid-Atlantic anticipates additional ice and parts of Southeast US are under a tornado watch

Winter storm causing extensive, major impacts with nearly 800K customers without power due to ice storm in South and 10K+ flights canceled. New England bracing for up to 2' of snow, additional ice in Mid-Atlantic, while severe wx threatens AL/GA/FL. More: tinyurl.com/32ktf7u4

Power outages in Alabama from PowerOutage.us.

Two panel radar display of reflectivity and velocity from the Fort Rucker radar.

A line of intense severe storms is moving across southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. There have been a number of reports of wind damage across southern Alabama, and 30K customers are without power in this area. Several tornado warnings in effect. #alwx

Power outages from PowerOutage.us website

While severe wx is in S GA, in N GA, power outages due to glaze accumulation have been increasing, with 100K customers now without power. Total power outages now exceed 1M nationally, mostly due to ice. You can see much of the MS Delta, a socioeconomically vulnerable region, is now without power.

1800 UTC sounding from Greensboro, NC

1800 UTC sounding from Dulles, VA

Midday balloon data from Greensboro, NC and Dulles showing the differences in the warm layer around 5K feet. Nearly 10C at Greensboro versus 2C or so at Dulles. Freezing rain more likely to be dominant precip type in NC with more sleet near DC, tho warming bringing more FZRA north into DC lately.

Radar shows how snow has been rapidly expanding in coverage and intensifying across the Denver metro the last hour. Gonna be an interesting 4th quarter at Mile High.

After a record warm Sunday, colder than normal weather will lock in for the foreseeable future High of 87F at MCO was the hottest January temperature in Orlando in more than 30 years

I usually don't share my Walt Disney World weather newsletter posts on here, but sharing tonight as I talked about the incredible warmth that existed across FL today ahead of the major winter storm. Orlando hit 87F, tying for 3rd warmest Jan day on record. open.substack.com/pub/wdwweath...

12 people reported dead, nearly 800K customers still without power from massive, major winter storm Serious concerns for impacted areas as near record cold settles in. Meanwhile, a new storm lurks for the East Coast by this weekend.

Serious impacts have occurred due to ice accumulations across the South, with ~800K still without power and incredible sleet accumulations causing roof collapses in parts of AR. I am VERY concerned about hypothermia risks & pipe burst potential from bitter cold tonight. tinyurl.com/43kcrhmb

12 people reported dead, nearly 800K customers still without power from massive, major winter storm Serious concerns for impacted areas as near record cold settles in. Meanwhile, a new storm lurks for the East Coast by this weekend.

In my newsletter this morning, I shared the experimental real-time freezing rain ice accumulation analysis developed by the winter weather research group at NSSL. This is the kind of R2O NOAA does that has clear societal benefit - and that the admin wants to curtail. tinyurl.com/43kcrhmb

Death toll from winter storm & cold reportedly exceeds 30, with 500K customers still without power due to ice storm Officials now staying power restoration will take weeks in some of the hardest hit areas, with another Arctic outbreak looming for the weekend.

Death toll exceeds 30 from winter weather and extreme cold, with 500K customers still without power due to severe ice storm over weekend. More Arctic air forecast for the weekend along with another challenging storm system. tinyurl.com/ybtccvch

1800 UTC European models trended noticeably snowier for the Mid-Atlantic and closer to the coast with the track of an intense surface low this weekend, and evening US GFS continues its trend of showing a massive Mid-Atlantic blizzard. Overall model trend toward a higher impact event.

More than 60 dead and 400K customers still without power from massive weekend winter storm Next blast of Arctic air on tap for this weekend, along with another winter storm that looks to focus on the Carolinas

More than 60 deaths now reported from the massive winter storm and associated cold weather, with 400K customers still without power. Next arctic blast looks potent for this weekend with major East Coast low bringing snow to at least the Carolinas. tinyurl.com/3fx64bbp

High impact winter storm looks increasingly likely for parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast this weekend, while major impacts linger from ice storm Arctic cold and high winds will add to the issues through the weekend

The pace of our news cycle makes it easy for stories to fall off the screen - but the disaster in parts of the South from the ice storm is still very much ongoing. Some important observations from the ground there - and more about the next major storm for the East. tinyurl.com/43987xnn

Some progress today, but still ~250K customers without power in the most impacted ice storm areas, and the next Arctic front will be moving in on Friday. Also, the latest from WPC on the major winter storm centered on the Carolinas this weekend: blizzard conditions in spots and major coastal floods.

Surface forecast map for Sat evening from regional Canadian model

Sat night midnight forecast surface map from regional Canadian model

And 19 mb of deepening in 6 hours?

500 mb forecast valid for Sat morning from the regional Canadian model

So how are my met friends feeling about -41C at 500 mb over Nashville?

Another weekend of high impact winter weather for the eastern half of the country Record cold, strong winds for many area, as major winter storm focuses snow, wind and coastal flooding impacts on the Carolinas

For the latitude of the Carolinas, a "bomb" cyclone is probably defined as ~15 mb deepening in 24 hr. So what do you call a storm that deepens 26 mb in 12 hr? Nuclear? I dove into the meteorology and impacts, including brutal cold down to FL and in ice storm impacted areas. tinyurl.com/4wrjxpnz

Alan Gerard (Balanced Wx) (@balancedweather) One of the areas that I am very interested to see how things play out is around the Atlanta metro. An ice storm warning is in effect for the region, but the models show that it will be on the southwes...

Took a short dive into ice situation around metro ATL - ice storm warning in effect, but not much model guidance supporting actual warning criteria ice accums. Big question is if shallow arctic air with wedge will push farther S and be more persistent than models show. substack.com/@balancedwea...

Loop of MRMS mosaic reflectivity and mPING reports shows that the first wave of wintry precipitation with the winter storm has been rapidly developing last few hours. Don't forget to submit your precip type reports using mPING, it will help NWS and all mets! mping.nssl.noaa.gov

Breaking: POTUS signs federal science funding budget bill, and National Science Foundation issues call for NCAR "restructuring" proposals As major winter storm starts its days of significant impacts

Breaking: POTUS signs fed funding bill, while National Science Foundation issues "Dear Colleague" letter requesting proposals for operating restructured NCAR weather infrastructure, implying administration continuing to move forward with plans to dismantle research facility. tinyurl.com/yc5pny9n

Large, high impact winter storm now in full swing Model trends suggest a shift north in greater ice accumulations for Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley, while serious ice storm also still looks on tap for the Mid-South.

Huge winter storm in progress now. Models trending toward a stronger, more persistent low coming NE from Gulf Coast Sunday, meaning greater icing risk farther north into the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley and potentially some severe weather in the Southeast. More: tinyurl.com/44bnty3m

While I noted that the ice accumulation forecasts have come down some for parts of upstate SC and NE GA, the risks for significant freezing rain are still substantial, just not as extreme as earlier. Latest midday HRRR still showing areas of .75” accumulations in parts of these areas.

Alan Gerard (Balanced Wx) (@balancedweather) More than 100K customers without power as of 6 pm CT from northeast Texas across northern Louisiana due to ice accumulations. The more substantial ice accumulations are still yet to come as areas of ...

Latest update on the ongoing winter storm, focused on impacts tonight in the middle part of the country. Already more than 100K customers without power in NE TX and N LA due to ice accumulations, and much more to come. substack.com/@balancedwea...

Saturday evening winter storm update: 150K customers now without power in TX/LA/MS as ice storm ramps up Plus: a lesson in diagnosing winter precipitation types

Late evening winter storm update, including a science dive analyzing evening weather balloon data and the complexity of winter precipitation type. Still very concerned about widespread serious ice accumulations with major power infrastructure implications. More: tinyurl.com/49njxuzt

Snowfall and ice forecasts from the evening HRRR model through 6 pm Sat, with more to come. Somewhere, Susan Collins is concerned.

Taking a dive into the various forecast challenges with the upcoming large major winter storm Confidence has increased in precipitation amounts, but still plenty of lurking issues with the forecast and ultimate impacts

Large, high impact winter storm incoming - forecast confidence has increased but plenty of uncertainty remains. I took a dive into some of the key forecast challenges, from how much sleet in the south central US to how the cold air "wedge" evolves in the Southeast. tinyurl.com/yu5ufffm

To reinforce my post this morning about the models still struggling with the details of the upcoming winter storm, compare the upper level (500 mb) pattern from tonight's German ICON model forecast for midday Sun to the forecast from just 24 hr ago. Massive trend toward a more phased solution. (1/2)

High impact winter storm still looming, but many uncertainties remain Model trends over last 24 hours bring areas farther north into play for potential impacts

Models are still struggling with the complex atmospheric flow pattern that will drive major winter weather impacts this weekend. I take a look at the various features and how data loss (AK raobs) and data gain (recon flights) might affect the forecasts. More: tinyurl.com/mrxx6n2y

I do not understand why every Democrat isn’t hammering away at the clear mental decline of the president. He couldn’t even get right the name of the country he’s trying to seize today on the biggest stage in the world. Everyone else is talking about it. Why isn’t the US?

Stand Up for NCAR! Link in our bio!

18Z European 500 mb forecast valid at 3 am CT Sunday

If anyone is giving a high confidence forecast in winter weather impacts with this expansive upcoming winter storm, they're full of it. Recently arriving Euro model still showing waffling - trended toward less phasing and more stream separation than morning run.