Jesper Asring Hansen

How common are “survey professionals” - people who take dozens of online surveys for pay - across online panels, and do they harm data quality?

Our paper, FirstView at @politicalanalysis.bsky.social, tackles this question using browsing data from three U.S. samples (Facebook, YouGov, and Lucid):

This seems important in a world where so many countries are turning against immigration:

"A structural estimation of a model of endogenous growth and migrations suggests the increased immigration to the US since 1965 may have increased innovation and wages by 5%."

Do high workloads force bureaucrats to discriminate?

In a published paper at the @thejop.bsky.social, I challenge the dominant explanation of discrimination in public service delivery. Surprisingly, I find that bureaucrats are able to handle substantial workloads without discriminating.

Our article “Unsuccessful Candidates Are More Concerned About Electoral Fairness than Election Winners” is now online @thejop.bsky.social

Using RDD and elite survey data from Denmark, we show that losing candidates express greater concern about electoral fairness.

🔗 doi.org/10.1086/734240

American Journal of Political Science | MPSA Journal | Wiley Online Library How do voters respond to economic crises: Do they turn against the incumbent, reward a certain political camp, polarize to the extremes, or perhaps continue to vote much like before? Analyzing extens....

Economic crises tend to favour the right. Voters tend to assign greater importance to issues owned by the right. When center-right parties preside over a crisis, voters often drift further rightward to nationalist parties rather than defect to the left onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

A new @ajpseditor.bsky.social paper claims that building *any* public housing costs the largest incumbent party in 🇩🇪 municipalities around 0.5 % pts. I don't think this estimate is right. Alternative estimation strategies suggests effects that are between eight and forty times smaller (1/n)

BBC International Editor Jeremy Bowen has confirmed that the entire Al Jazeera team in Gaza City has been killed.

The Mothership Vortex: An Investigation Into the Firm at the Heart of the Democratic Spam Machine How a single consulting firm extracted $282 million from a network of spam PACs while delivering just $11 million to actual campaigns.

The annoying spam texts destroying the Democratic brand:

$678M raised through those spam tactics

$282M to one consulting firm: Mothership Strategies.

$11M to actual campaigns (1.6%)

The party isn’t just treating donors like marks—it’s being fleeced itself yet continues to back Mothership.

🧵Introducing the Trump Action Tracker website!

Today I’m launching www.trumpactiontracker.info - a live, searchable list of authoritarian‑style actions from Trump’s second term (over 740 actions so far). 1/14

Analyzing scientists' biographies during the baby boom, we find that mothers have a unique life cycle pattern of productivity. Children reduce the productivity of mothers but not fathers, with important implications for promotions and participation. buff.ly/39WbYRH

@robmickey.bsky.social & @dziblatt.bsky.social let me post the working paper

Why doesn't police reform work? Because police depts can't credibly commit to their end of the bargain (doing more/better/riskier work in exchange for more $)

www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/35o94...

The East in wolf’s clothing. Wolf attacks correlate with but do not cause far-right voting The resurgence of wolves in Germany has sparked intense debate, particularly in rural areas where wolf attacks on livestock are frequent. Prior resear…

Local reactions to wolf attacks in Germany are not powerful enough to influence the election decisions of many voters www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

The Democratic Tea Party is happening. But one key difference from the GOP Tea Party is the lack of a Fox News and big money to coordinate it. The Tea Party had a real grassroots element (sorry it's true), but coordination by media & Koch money was crucial

web.stanford.edu/~gjmartin/pa...

I’m currently building a dataset on police forces around the globe. No other country has a force quite like ICE (w/ broad enforcement powers, tactical gear, immigration focus); the most apt comparisons are to secret police in authoritarian regimes rather than border/immigration forces elsewhere.

If the GOP reconciliation bill passes, ICE gets through FY2029:

- $45 billion for detention, on top of the current annual budget of $3.4 billion
- $14.4 billion for transportation and removal, on top of the current annual budget of $750 million
- $8 billion for hiring/retention
- Billions more.

The Trump admin in a nutshell; in order to justify their own mistake, they’re going to release a violent felon with five deportations so he can testify against the guy with no criminal record they mistakenly deported.

In other words, the story is always more important than the principle.

Did some quick math and i think this would represent one of the most dramatic and rapid expansions of prisons/policing/paramilitary forces in world history.

Can we say we are living in a police state now?

If you're still at #EPSA2025 today:

Catch our Panel P13-S315: Politicians & Representation

🕐 13:10–14:50
📍 Room -1.A.05

Featuring:
@jacklucas.bsky.social, @mathisbr.bsky.social, John Griffin, @mafaldapratas.bsky.social

I’m presenting our study on evidence selection by politicians👇

Very excited to share a new preprint.

@jesperasring.bsky.social and I study how politicians engage with evidence in the real world.

Link: osf.io/8zv9s

To help researchers navigate social desirability bias, this study assesses commonly-used approaches and offers practical guidance on selecting the most suitable tools for different contexts, from Bursztyn, Haaland, Röver, and Roth https://www.nber.org/papers/w33920

Super interesting – and may I say "funny" – design. Well worth the read!

New preprint w. @rsenninger.bsky.social

Sharing evidence on immigration with parliamentary candidates, we find that politicians from extreme parties - especially those on the far right - select evidence that aligns with their party's priorities

🚨New WP 🚨 The US plays a dominant role in informing policy worldwide. We show how its expertise shapes global policymaking — but also discuss how political pressures, shifting funding, and challenges to science could put this position at risk.

Much more in the paper. Full thread below 👇

Just published in @jpube.bsky.social:

"Gulags, crime, and elite violence: Origins and consequences of the Russian mafia"

By Jakub Lonsky

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
#econsky

LAPD when they think nobody is watching

Here's the one chart you need to see:

- Abrego Garcia deported
- SCOTUS ruling gets press
- News coverage shot up
- Google search traffic shot up
- Trump approval fell down

and then

- News media moved on
- Trump immigration approval went back up

Exactly as predicted by the survey experiment.

Elite Cues and Noncompliance | American Political Science Review | Cambridge Core Elite Cues and Noncompliance - Volume 119 Issue 2

From our new issue: "Elite Cues and Noncompliance" by Zachary P. Dickson (@zachdickson.bsky.social‬‬) and Sara B. Hobolt (@sarahobolt.bsky.social‬). #APSRNewIssue www.cambridge.org/core/journal...