Tadeas Cely

Abstract It is widely accepted in political science – and remarkably established in public discourse – that status anxieties fuel a far right backlash against progressive politics. This narrative suggests that right-wing conservatives perceive the status of women, racial, or sexual minorities as threatening. Using open-ended survey questions fielded in Germany, we show that women and minorities indeed figure in people’s perceptions of status hierarchies, but in very specific ways: First, overall, people still perceive status as largely socioeconomically determined. Second, sociocultural groups figure in perceptions of who is gaining/losing status, less so in perceptions of the top/bottom of society. Third, more than conservative voters, it is social progressives who mention women and minorities as “winners”. While on race/ethnicity, we find evidence for a backlash, on gender and sexuality we find more evidence for a progressive momentum. This matters for progressive politics today and for how we empirically study status concerns.

New article out in @cpsjournal.bsky.social with Tabea Palmtag and @dpzollinger.bsky.social 📝
We use open-ended survey questions (in Germany) to assess how and among whom social status shifts are perceived. This tests cultural backlash narratives in voters' perceptions.

🔗 doi.org/10.1177/0010...

Legislators talk less about the future as they age | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja

NEW ARTICLE: @palesl.bsky.social, Vesa Koskimaa and I have an letter out in JOP, "Politicians talk less about the future as they age" doi.org/10.1086/739406 (1/10)

I ran a simulated social media experiment with 1450 Republicans to test different fact-checking interventions.

AI produced the largest decrease in engagement with Trump misinformation, outperforming independent fact-checkers and doing so far more consistently than Community Notes.

Thanks to several folks at @prl.bsky.social for their comments and support!

Furthermore, given the decline of local media, citizens are less likely to learn about or pay attention to the norm-violating behavior of local and state politicians. Overall, our results are consistent with the nationalization of U.S. politics, showing few differences across office levels.

This paints a mixed picture of citizens as democratic safeguards. On the plus side, voters are no more forgiving in local races, where issues like democracy might matter less. Pessimistically, however, their willingness to defect is also no greater — even when facing lower policy trade-offs.

We used a different between-subject experimental design and wording. Various checks and screening procedures were implemented to ensure validity. To enhance realism, we also included policy positions in the vignette. The second study nevertheless replicates the first.

However, using a high-powered vignette experiment in which voters chose between candidates across different races, we found no difference in their willingness to defect from undemocratic politicians. This held regardless of the type or number of norm violations in the vignette.

Norm-violating behavior occurs at all levels of 🇺🇸 government. As local and state politicians often ascend to national office, this could suggest a pipeline of backsliders. Yet, in lower-stakes local elections, citizens may often fail to hold such politicians accountable.

Preprint: Levels of Office and Voter Accountability for Democratic Norm Violations

⚠️New paper fothcoming in POQ! ⚠️
With @marcjacob.bsky.social and @seanjwestwood.bsky.social, we worried about norm-violating local politicians rising to higher office. We tested when voters defect from such politicians in local, state and federal races.
osf.io/preprints/ps...
🧵...

Polarization Research Lab Research on the origins, effects, limits and solutions to polarization

Job 🚨! PRL is looking for a postdoc based at Dartmouth College for next year. Candidates should bring advanced data skills and enjoy writing. Read more about our work at polarizationresearchlab.org and apply through Interfolio by February 15, 2026: apply.interfolio.com/175722

ANO’s return also revives unresolved questions about Andrej Babiš’s conflict-of-interest case. Current law bars him from holding government office, but with enough parliamentary support, he could seek to change it.

🇨🇿 Today’s Czech vote went little differently than polls suggested — centrist populism dominates, extremists underperformed. The next coalition is uncertain, but a minority ANO government backed by the radical right looks likely. Now all depends on coalition talks and what they can secure in return.

🎉 We're excited to share our Fall/Winter 2025-26 schedule! We have a stellar lineup of research highlighting cases from Central Europe to Central Asia🎉

Workshops are on Fridays 5pmCET/11amET/8amPST with links+papers shared on our list-serv the week before.
Sign up here⤵️
eepg-workshop.github.io

New in PNAS with @seanjwestwood.bsky.social and @ylelkes.bsky.social: Why depolarization is hard: Evaluating attempts to decrease partisan animosity in America

@prl.bsky.social @pnas.org

www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

Plans to export them as a favor to indebted governments are currently underway. 🙂

Or see this other publication ( @polbehavior.bsky.social ), which shows how ideological alignment matters for animosity and expectations of future disagreement: bsky.app/profile/cely...

For research in the same vein, check out my piece in @eupthejournal.bsky.social on cross-national differences: bsky.app/profile/cely...

Now it has also been published in an issue! But I’m curious—and increasingly worried—about how this will look in a year or two.

👉Check out our new publication in @electoralstudies.bsky.social (with Toth & Chytilek)! Using eye-tracking and surveys, we test whether framing political issues in moral terms attracts more attention than presenting them with facts. Surprisingly, facts hold a slight advantage doi.org/10.1016/j.el...

As Trump Vows Vengeance, Utah’s Governor Calls to Lower the Temperature

Media source: www.nytimes.com/2025/09/12/u...

In the working paper (with @miroslavnemcok.bsky.social and others), which will soon be available, we show that such politicization can harm democratic norms and fuel affective polarization. However, we also find that it does not translate into greater support for political violence.

In real time, we can observe very different approaches to the Kirk assassination. Cox (R) places the blame on the attacker, while Trump does not hesitate to politicize it. We have a parallel in 🇸🇰, continuing for months. Politicization can easily succeed. A paper on this topic is in progress.

Looks like a tremendous work. Can't wait to read it. Congratulations!

A job opening for comparativists!

This is a work with @andrewroberts.bsky.social, supported by the Czech Political Science Association and NU.

See the full overview of our results here: tadeascely.github.io/report.html. All data and materials will be opened soon.

Lastly, we map what 𝐪𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐜𝐡 𝐩𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬 are perceived as common. Top concerns related to inadequate work performance in reporting and review, but many also mention honorary authorships, HARKing, or shady ways to promote citation of one’s work.

Ideologically, they are lightly more liberal on social issues and more 𝐩𝐫𝐨-𝐖𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧 internationally, with no big gap on economics. But public sees little bias—except slightly pro-Western—while political scientists think their field is more skewed. Overall, there is 𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐭𝐥𝐞 𝐞𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐨𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐛𝐢𝐚𝐬

In trust, political scientists beat politicians and journalists—but trail behind psychologists or economists. When asked for estimate, scientists nail their own trust levels (~𝟑𝟎% 𝐩𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐥𝐞) but underestimate how higher it is than politicians’ and how much lower it is than natural scientists’.