David Paolella

WeatherStar 4000+ Web based WeatherStar 4000 simulator that reports current and forecast weather conditions plus a few extras!

One of the best fun web projects I’ve seen in years. I want a mini CRT in my house that can run this on a loop. weatherstar.netbymatt.com?_bhlid=108f9...

Much ado about the role of renewable energy (RE) in the Spanish blackout. The investigation into the effective cause is still ongoing, but many pointed to the fact that RE has no ‘inertia’. Is that true? The answer is: yes, but ... 🧵

But isn’t it fair to say wind turbine blades are designed to be relatively lightweight to respond quickly to changes in wind speed/direction, which lowers their rotational inertia compared to heavy rotating machinery in thermal plants? Not insurmountable, but it seems like a fundamental difference.

Clean firm data center projects I've encountered require advancements in controls and software. It's easy to imagine the broader innovations needed to fulfill their promise, helping nascent technology scale + making it viable for lower-revenue applications.

Even if the US were on a net zero trajectory, EER's modeling suggests data centers would still drive ~50% of load growth thru 2030. Eventually, economy-wide electrification will dominate, but this is the decade to max out clean firm we can build while tech companies are willing/able to pay a premium

While data center load growth presents new challenges for climate goals, we're already seeing the data center boom could be a major driver of early demand for nascent clean firm power technologies, buying down costs for others. This figure from the ADP24 captures the scale of the opportunity.

2024 US ADP | evolved-energy

The ADP24 was published today with some very interesting updates on timely topics like data center load growth, next-gen geothermal potential, implications of a future geologic hydrogen breakthrough, and others.

Take a look at the results here: www.evolved.energy/us-adp-2024

In all US net zero scenarios, installed capacity of “firm” generation sources remains in line with current levels with ~500-1,000GW (vs. ~875GW today), even "100% RE." Chart from @davidpaolella.bsky.social

This issue is very similar to Tx in 2015. Let's not make the same mistakes and get to work...

Nobel (Memorial) Prize for Meme Science

Pause for a moment and admire the incredible success we’ve had.

www.cnn.com/2024/11/15/c...

Why is that? Negative feedback loops kicking in?

Seems like new policy to speed up access to new clean electricity generation and expand transmission (which would make 45V rules easier to comply with) is more likely to happen sooner than a national carbon constraint (which would make the rules less needed)

EV/clean H2 analogy misses key differences, no?
1. Electrolytic H2 w/grid avg elec is highly emitting while EVs are still largely better than ICE
2. H2 PTC covers higher % of the total cost of H2 prod vs EV credits
3. EV credit is more like an ITC so less risk of incentivizing inefficient operation

For more, check out the full report by Evolved Energy Research, download input and results data, and explore interactive versions of the figures on Tableau Public:
evolved.energy/2023-us-adp

Energy parks (large renewables projects w/co-located energy intensive industrial processes) could unlock clean energy potential in the near term, otherwise limited by constrained transmission. The ADP modeled the scale & location of potential energy parks for the first time.

Half a Gt of DAC capacity could be needed in the US by 2050 to reach net zero, underscoring the urgency & importance of investing in emerging carbon-management tech. Demo programs are key for testing tech and optimal locations. (figure shows top 8 states by modeled deployment)

One pathway to growing clean firm capacity is to retrofit existing coal and gas plants with nuclear, CCS, or other low carbon technologies. In the Drop-in scenario, brownfield opportunities for clean firm power play as large (or larger) a role by 2050 as greenfield projects.

Improving tech plus expanded tax credits open a pathway for capturing and sequestering emissions from existing ethanol production while converting the ethanol to jet fuel. This could create new economic opportunity for US corn producers as ethanol blending in gasoline declines.

Once referred to as “hard-to-decarbonize sectors,” heavy industries have increasing abatement options on the path to net zero. This year's ADP expands the number of solutions modeled for steel and cement industries--highlighting opportunities for CCS and H2.

Numerous technologies are modest cost declines away from being competitive in a net-zero energy system, esp when accounting for non-cost barriers. Supporting a diverse set of technologies provides valuable optionality as we navigate uncertain obstacles along the way to net zero.

Many emerging clean technologies needed at scale in the 2030s and beyond will require proactive infrastructure planning to enable their widespread deployment.

New clean electricity incentives enable an accelerated scale up of clean energy technologies, but we will need a longer-term strategy before credits are due to expire in the 2030s to support sustained deployment at home and abroad (e.g., a clean electricity standards)

Expanded tax credits reduce the direct cost of decarbonization, making it cheaper to choose clean energy. And the costs across the energy system of increasing ambition to reach net zero have dropped substantially ($68B additional annual cost in 2050 vs. $172B w/o recent policy)

Recent policies are expected to drive a significant amount of emissions reductions in two critical areas, clean power generation and transportation electrification, bringing us closer to a net zero trajectory. But more work is needed, especially in industry and fuels.

Annual Decarbonization Perspective 2023 Executive Summary | Breakthrough Energy Co-authored with Ryan Jones and Ben Haley of Evolved Energy Research and Jim Williams of University of San Francisco

We just released an executive summary of this year's Annual Decarbonization Perspective, in collaboration with Evolved Energy Research. We lay out ten takeaways including implications of recent policy on US pathways to net zero. 🧵

breakthroughenergy.org/news/annual-...