Catherine Wolfram

Curious to hear from others who subscribe to Carbon Pulse. I see a fair number of headlines I’d like to click through to, like the one below, but the subscription price is steep!

Worth it?

#climatesky

UK and EU poised to strike deal sparing British business from carbon border tax Exclusive: Temporary deal to shield UK exporters from levy’s impact is now viewed by both sides as likely

This is described as an "exemption" but since the UK and EU plan to align carbon markets so that UK and EU firms will pay the same price that's not quite right. It's instead aligned w the EU intent to credit domestic prices already paid. More a mini coalition!

www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

@mark-carney.bsky.social

Mark Carney’s Shift From Climate-Change Warrior to Fossil-Fuel Cheerleader Canada’s prime minister has scrapped green policies and pledged to transform the country ”into an energy superpower.”

Two points counter the top-line narrative in this piece:

1. Work by @constanzaabuin.bsky.social suggests that exporting more Canadian LNG can lower GHG emissions abroad, at least in the short run

2. The coming "climate competitiveness strategy” could be a #CBAM?!?

www.wsj.com/world/americ...

Thanks to @kclausing.bsky.social for the great thread on our BPEA paper with @knittelmit.bsky.social!

Bottom line: US households experience climate change primarily through wildfires and storms more than heat.

U.N. General Assembly Updates: China, for First Time, Vows to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions

U.N. General Assembly Updates: China, for First Time, Vows to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions www.nytimes.com/live/2025/09...

Brazil Lobbies EU, China to Join COP30 Carbon Market Coalition Brazil is trying to build a coalition of countries, including the European Union and China, to unify carbon markets globally as it prepares to host this year’s COP30 climate summit.

"The EU and China have expressed interest in joining the agreement, which may make it one of the most significant outcomes of the November summit..." Let's hope!!

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Increase pressure or silently acquiesce | Brookings European regulators face critical decisions on Russia how to continue the regime of sanctions in response to the invasion of Ukraine.

Although work by @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social and @econharris.bsky.social suggests US sanctions are the most effective, and the US hasn't been following other countries lately.

www.brookings.edu/articles/inc...

Russian Oil Falls Back Below $60 Price Cap as US Sanctions Bite Russia’s flagship crude oil has dropped back below a price cap of $60 a barrel for the first time since December, one of several indicators that fresh US sanctions on Moscow may be biting.

Luckily, it looks like adding sanctions on the shadow fleet depresses the price Russia receives.

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

How Russia’s Sanctions Evasion Could Create Lasting Costs

NYT piece on Russia's shadow fleet frustratingly treats the build up of the fleet as an inevitable response to the price cap. That's not at all the case. The EU could have prohibited oil tanker sales to Russia, but for (I've heard) the desires of the Greek shippers.

www.nytimes.com/2025/09/20/w...

US senators seek to raise pressure on Russia with ‘shadow fleet’ sanctions Bipartisan lawmakers set out punitive measures as Donald Trump’s efforts to negotiate end to Ukraine war stall

New bipartisan Senate bill targets Russia's shadow fleet used to evade oil price cap.

on.ft.com/46whsmY

I have particular appreciation for the leadership of Ambassador Corrêa do Lago, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad and his team led by Rafael Dubeux, including Cristina Reis and Jose Pedro Nevors for putting this proposal on the agenda heading into #COP30.

The fantastic working group was supported by the report team, led by Arathi Rao including Ruchee Bhatta, Kevin Hsu, Anna Neumann, Fanming Meng, @mpereboom.bsky.social and @naomishimberg.bsky.social who made this all happen and deserve special thanks!

Working group incl: Joseph Aldy, Candido Bracher, Vaibhav Chaturvedi, @kclausing.bsky.social, Christian Gollier, @frankjotzo.bsky.social , Marcelo Medeiros, Athiphat Muthitacheroen, Axel Ockenfels, Mari Elka Pangestu, Daouda Sembene, PhD, E. Somanathan, Dustin Tingley, @jenniferwinter.bsky.social

Talk of a global carbon pricing scheme grows louder ahead of COP30 Brazil wants to use the presidency to push for an international framework

With #COP30 in Brazil on the horizon — and Brazil making this a signature initiative — the moment is ripe for countries to move from fragmented carbon border adjustments to a cooperative framework that advances climate, trade, and development together.

on.ft.com/4p9McTr

#climatesky, #econsky

Bar chart showing that with a graduated carbon price approach, output may increase in low- and low-middle-income countries.

C. Price impacts on key materials would be modest, with minimal consumer effects.

D. A graduated approach would allow low- and middle-income countries to join fairly, backed by technology transfer, finance, and capacity-building.

Bar charts showing that carbon pricing yields ~$200 B in domestic revenues, much more than CBAM revenues.

Using 2 models, our analysis shows that:

A. A climate coalition could cut emissions 7x more than current policies — equal to Canada’s annual emissions.

B. It could raise nearly $200 billion per year in revenues, mostly from domestic carbon pricing.

Pie chart showing that 82% of carbon emissions are already covered by carbon pricing (planned and existing) in the steel, aluminum, cement and fertilizers industries.

We build on two important facts:

1. Over 80% of emissions in the steel, cement, aluminum and fertilizers industries are _already_ covered by existing or planned carbon pricing systems.

2. These industries account for over 20% of global carbon emissions.

I'm delighted to announce the release of the Flagship Report of the Global Climate Policy Project at Harvard and MIT Working Group on Climate Coalitions on "Building a Climate Coalition: Aligning Carbon Pricing, Trade, and Development."

ceepr.link/3VmgC7g

A 🧵 on what we do/find:

GOP Russia Hawks Have a New Plan to Outmaneuver Isolationists Sen. Lindsey Graham wants to tie sanctions against Russia to the coming bill to fund the federal government.

Interesting. This would presumably make it harder for the Democrats to pursue @ezrakleinbot.bsky.social's strategy to use gov't funding to extract concessions on domestic issues.

www.politico.com/news/magazin...

Interesting that he didn’t mention purchases of Russian gas, which would be harder to stop buying, I’d guess.

COP30 President André do Lago and I took stock of recent developments as preparations for the COP intensify.

We have important priorities, such as submitting good new NDCs, developing adaptation indicators and highlighting effective policy approaches like carbon pricing at COP30.

Wow, huge congrats!

Talk of a global carbon pricing scheme grows louder ahead of COP30 Brazil wants to use the presidency to push for an international framework

Nice coverage of the climate coalition work in today's FT!

"Brazil now wants to use the COP30 presidency to push for a different international carbon pricing framework — one based on multilateral agreement, rather than with the EU as the de facto sole standard-setter."

on.ft.com/4p0UnBv

Lessons from 3 years of Russia sanctions: (i) financial sanctions don't work on current account surplus countries; (ii) you need to hit exports, which the G7 cap does; (iii) enforcement of the G7 cap was terrible, which is mainly about poor EU governance...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/lessons-fr...

🌍💡 Join the WCEREA Webinar on The Political Economy of Carbon Pricing

📅 Sept 9, 2025
⏰ 9:00–10:30 am Pacific Time | Online

Speakers: ‪‪@bardharstad.bsky.social, @profjeroenbergh.bsky.social, @cwolfram.bsky.social

Moderator: @marcelocaffera.bsky.social

🔗 a1d0g2.emailsp.com/f/rnl.aspx/?...

Why Haven’t Sanctions on Russia Stopped the War? The Money Is Still Flowing.

Interesting perspective on sanctions, emphasizing the importance of enforcement.

One point is the need for more resources for enforcement agencies. Investigative journalism is cool, but the authorities should be doing a lot of the work, in my view.

www.nytimes.com/2025/08/24/b...

US oilfield services group expands Russian unit despite new sanctions Weatherford International along with other companies continue to provide critical equipment to the country

So important to have this kind of investigative journalism turning up what appear to be sanctions violations.

on.ft.com/3UE7WZK

Colleagues and I estimate about the same revenue from a ~EU-level carbon price, and more like ~$2T if it doesn't apply to retail gasoline. It's buried deep in the appendix and may be gated. DM if you'd like a copy... www.nber.org/system/files...

YouTube video by The Ezra Klein Show Trump vs. the U.S. Economy | The Ezra Klein Show

Really enjoyed this wide-ranging discussion by @natashasarin.bsky.social on @ezrakleinbot.bsky.social. What especially caught my eye was the mention of the tariff revenues (~$3T over 10 years) and what might replace them in a dem admin, including a carbon fee. www.youtube.com/watch?v=PI6R...