Florian Gawehns

It's effectiveness has been proven by the experts...

More on diagnosing American politics, and why I am skeptical of simplistic messaging/organizing prescriptions.

Presidents Shape Parties More than Parties Shape Presidents – Outside the Beltway outsidethebeltway.com/presidents-s...

Great work, thanks for sharing this!

I haven't spent a ton of time working through this, but it draws heavily on national party insights to make recommendations for Dem candidates... who are already doing these things?

Over three-quarters of Ds discuss economics, healthcare etc....

campaignview.org
www.nature.com/articles/s41...

There are many ways to reform the current 60-vote threshold. It is doubtful a single Dem senator from a blue(ish) state would go against all his colleagues + Dem president and put the whole D agenda in jeopardy. So how much stock should anyone really put into these statements?

This is amazing! Thank you for doing this work. Is there a codebook somewhere?

Fascinating. So the causal arrows are: historical industrial structure → built environment → demographic persistence → modern political outcomes?

BJPolS abstract analyzing how financial contributions to legislators from Fortune 500 companies change in response to the policymakers' involvement in election result disputes and accountability violations.

#OpenAccess from August 2025 -

Principled Pragmatism: Big Business and Campaign Contributions After January 6 - cup.org/4l99G7Z

- @amydmeli.bsky.social & @fgawehns.bsky.social

#Jan6

Plot showing perception of voter ideology of candidates overtime. It is separated by House and Senate. Republicans are drifting slightly to be more conservative, Democrats are mostly staying in one place.

Plot showing messaging ideology of candidates overtime. It is separated by House and Senate. There is increasing separation between parties over time, with Republicans becoming messaging more moderately during the Trump era and then shifting to the right during Biden.

New paper with @hjghassell.bsky.social and @michaelheseltine.bsky.social out in @bjpols.bsky.social.

We develop measures of voter perceptions of candidate ideology and candidate messaging ideology and find that perception's are related to what candidates say www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

On a more general note, I find it kind of odd that written rules can be "nuked" via precedent. I assume this is a common law thing, but IDK. Unimaginable to e.g. a German legislature that a majority could change procedural rules via precedent when they're clearly written down.

For the first time ever, Democratic members of Congress are starting to use "overreach" in their constituent newsletters. Republicans very prolific - when they're in the opposition.

Delighted to discover that "Candidate Positions, Responsiveness, and Returns to Extremism" is now available online from JOP 🧵
@thejop.bsky.social

Gated: journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Ungated: mellissameisels.com/files/MM_PCP...

Find the Harris voter who now "strongly" approves of Trump.

Republicans in general are much more likely to mention foreign adversaries.

Is there any serious discussion of electoral reform in the UK? Typically, governments in FPTP countries quickly abandon proportional representation after winning power (see Trudeau).

Yes, a more functional Congress requires more cross-pressured legislators.

Yet Dems' messaging is lukewarm at best. Why?

We will accept submissions to the American Trade Policy in the 21st Century special issue until September 1st! An exception for one is an exception for all. #polisky #academisky

Learn more here: apsanet.org/publications...

Chart showing progression of the number of open Republican house seats over the election cycle for the years 2006 to 2026. 2018 and 2020 had the most retirements, and 2026 looks similar so far.

Republican open House seats are tracking the massive 2020 and 2018 years so far. Notably all but one of this year's open GOP seats is due to the member running for Senate or governor. 1/2

Data: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

Big update to @upshot.nytimes.com 2024 precinct map. Now includes most of CA and CO.

My impression is that the empirical results point to ideological moderation as a desirable trait in competitive elections, all else being equal (worth 2-4 pct points). Then we might discuss how, on what issues, is it just vibes/optics etc.

Use of "tariffs" in congressional e-newsletters suggests halfhearted Dem messaging on the topic.

Following your argument, you still think that running "moderates" (on key issues) in competitive districts is a sensible strategy, correct?

I think Altman assumes that “PhD-level expert” means someone who speaks confidently on everything as opposed to saying “it’s nuanced,” losing their keys, and getting maniacally fixated on their current topic to the point of seeing it in everything.

Except for Vermont. And Massachusetts.

Lots of variation among vulnerable Senate Dems in their propensity to vote with Rs on anything.

New in BJPS: @amydmeli.bsky.social and I investigate how Fortune 500 companies changed their 💰 after Jan 6. We find that they balance the interests of their two audiences by sending signals of disapproval towards those who violate established norms while continuing to lobby key lawmakers.

Foreign policy free agents: how lawmakers and coalitions on the political margins help set boundaries for US foreign policy - International Politics Bipartisan consensus on many US domestic and foreign policy priorities has seemingly collapsed in recent decades, and political parties have become qideologically polarized and divided. While some con...

Homan and Lantis (2022) used the 2nd dimension to show how members at the ideological extremes of their parties are finding common ground in anti-establishment views on foreign affairs. But I'm not sure anyone has tried validating the 2nd dimension as such. link.springer.com/article/10.1...

In the House, both parties have the same median age, but 25% of Dems are older than 70.

Series of line charts showing public confidence in major institutions among all U.S. adults, Republicans, independents and Democrats, based on Gallup surveys from 1979 to 2025.

From @gallup.com: "Americans' average confidence in major U.S. institutions is unchanged since last year, with a near-record-low 28% of U.S. adults expressing 'a great deal' or 'quite a lot' of confidence in nine institutions tracked consistently since 1979." news.gallup.com/poll/692633/...