John Sides

thermostat go click-click-click

Just like in his 1st term, Trump is going to hover around 40% approval. As @johnsides.bsky.social et al point out in their 2020 election book, Trump always sides with his base rather than choose policies with broader appeal. When you only aim to satisfy 40% of the population, you get 40% approval.

Some more great new research from Vandy polisci faculty!

Peter Schram in International Organization, "Conflicts that Leave Something to Chance."

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

ICE’s popularity is plunging. ICE’s budget is skyrocketing, but more and more Americans view the agency unfavorably.

The popularity of ICE is plunging.

goodauthority.org/news/america...

I worked with E.J. for many years and highly recommend her for any academic looking to polish their writing and reach a larger audience!

Americans’ views of the opposite party have declined even further. New data shows another increase in “affective polarization.”

For more, see here: goodauthority.org/news/america...

People also appear to raise the out-party less favorably than "out-partisans" (i.e., Ds rate the "Republican Party" less favorably than "Republicans"). Suggests that "the party" calls to mind party leaders and activists not just ordinary folks, as some research has suggested.

Once you separate by mode, you get the expected finding: people express less favorable views of the out-party when they complete the survey themselves. Raises the possibility that the ANES was underestimating affective polarization because it used only face-to-face interviews for many years!

Methodological point: you have to separate the later ANES studies by survey mode, because out-party feelings are cooler in the self-completed mode than in face-to-face or phone interviews. If you don't, you're conflating changes over time with changes in mode (and I've seen some people do this).

In general, in-party feelings are stable. Perhaps they were higher in the 1960s, although the change the object being evaluated (e.g., from "Democrats" to "Democratic Party") makes it harder to compare.

But as we've known, out-party feelings have become cooler. 2024 only continued the trend.

For @goodauth.bsky.social, I updated the affective polarization trend using the newly released 2024 ANES. Here's the graph.

A few important points...

And while I'm at it, a THIRD piece in the AJPS from Vanderbilt polisci faculty came out yesterday -- this one by my colleagues @BradSmithUNC and Peter Bils:

"The Logic of Secret Alliances"

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Somehow I neglected to mention a SIXTH APSR by Vanderbilt polisci faculty. This one, by Jorge Mangonnet et al., is now out and formally forthcoming in 2026!

"Family Ties, Social Control, and Authoritarian Distribution to Elites"

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Then, finally, this *extremely* topical piece by @johnadearborn.bsky.social : “Contesting the Reach of the Rights Revolution: The Reagan Administration and the Unitary Executive”

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Erin York and Daniel Tavana have this piece in the BJPS: “Legislative Cooptation in Authoritarian Regimes: Policy Cooperation in the Kuwait National Assembly”

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

And then Andres Gannon: “Complementarity in alliances: How strategic compatibility and hierarchy promote efficient cooperation in international security”

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

There’s also 2 pieces in the American Journal of Political Science. Federica Izzo and colleagues are first with “Argumentation Strategies in Party Competition.”

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

Then, ‪@brentonkenkel.bsky.social‬ and Kristopher Ramsay: “The Effective Power of Military Coalitions: A Unified Theoretical and Empirical Model”

www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

Next up, the first of the 2 new pieces in the Journal of Politics by VU political science faculty. Peter Bils and colleagues with this excellent title: “Fanatical Peace: How Fundamental Disagreements Can Discourage Conflict.”

www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

That piece makes FIVE (5) APSR pieces by Vandy faculty in 2025 alone.

bsky.app/profile/john...

There’s so much interesting research coming from Vanderbilt political science faculty. As dept chair, it is a pleasure to highlight a bunch of it.

First, up, @trounstine.bsky.social and Sarah Anzia in the @apsrjournal.bsky.social on civil service adoption:

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

If Trump can get people to root for Duke basketball, that might be the pinnacle of negative polarization.

Congress was hiding in plain sight 🤓. Join me & @johnsides.bsky.social for Episode 2 of @goodauth.bsky.social's Where's Congress? We consider the big (yes), beautiful (eye of beholder) bill House GOP are trying to pass thru House --Senate GOP views be damned (for now)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvfR...

YouTube video by Good Authority Good Authority Podcast | Where's Congress? Episode 2 | John Sides & Sarah Binder

In the latest episode of "Where's Congress?" for @goodauth.bsky.social, @sarahbinder.bsky.social and I discuss the Big Beautiful Bill (TM).

Learn what's different about this bill and the politics that are complicating is bigness and beauty.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvfR...

What do you make of the Cutler, Hassell, and Reuning finding that independent voters are also more likely to support candidates they perceive as extreme?

Seems to complicate the notion that you need moderates to run for marginal seats to appeal to indies. But I wouldn't dismiss that notion either!

Congressional Lifers? Not So Fast. The data behind how long lawmakers serve in Congress.

Median tenure in Congress is currently 8 years. I'm just not sure term limits would have much effect. 72% of U.S. Representatives have served 12 years or less!

www.caseyburgat.com/p/congressio...

The chronic misperception of Americans’ abortion attitudes. Leaders and voters think Americans are more conservative than they are.

Americans are more pro-choice than people think.

Two studies show that both elected leaders and voters overestimate Americans' conservatism on abortion.

New from me @goodauth.bsky.social.

goodauthority.org/news/the-chr...

Why Democrats should keep talking about immigration Democrats can once again turn immigration into a losing issue for Trump.

This, by @tesler.bsky.social, is looking more prescient everyday.

goodauthority.org/news/why-dem...

It's amazing how much Trump 2.0 repeats the same mistakes of Trump 1.0.

Shifts to Trump from 2020-24 are not just a story about the youngest voters or about the youngest men.

They are a story about shifts among *men and women* who are *under 40*.

1,000 takes on the youngest men. Virtually zero on everyone else.