Haris Michail

Hand-coded perceived channels of monetary policy elicited in an open-ended question. Subsample of firms that clearly indicate which channel(s) they have in mind. Monetary policy moves aggregate investment, but the underlying drivers remain unclear. This column opens the black box with a German firm survey. A one percentage point fall in loan rates raises investment by about 7%. Yet many firms do not adjust, often because they have ample cash or are off the margin. Firms’ narratives and their responses to actual monetary policy shocks indicate that the borrowing-cost channel is first-order for policy.

L Best, @bborn.bsky.social, & M Menkhoff survey German firms and find many firms do not adjust #investment after borrowing costs decrease because they have sufficient internal funds. Also, firms' sensitivity to borrowing costs decreases with the size of the change.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

China can maintain high growth and transition to consumer-led economy, premier Li says China's Premier Li Qiang said on Wednesday he was confident the world's No.2 economy could maintain a "relatively rapid" growth rate as it transitions from a manufacturing-led model to a consumer-driven one, a shift analysts say is key to securing its future.

China can maintain high growth and transition to consumer-led economy, premier Li says reut.rs/4kU2e13

Treat others like they, profess they want to treat others.
It's very fun when they try to justify why they should be excluded by the treatment they profess to endorse.

Note for prospective viewers of gov funded documentaries. Avoid like the plague. Useless, long, looong performative speeches saying nothing. as the old joke goes, the time in the ticket seems to be suggestive #thehistoryofcopperincyprus

ICE is now asserting it's a federal crime for bystanders to request that masked people in plain clothes show identification as they're handcuffing folks and stuffing them into unmarked vans.

This sure deserves to join a couple of relevant Bluesky feeds! 👇🏻
🧪 ⚒️

We are at the point at which economic policy even on the left is being discussed in terms of the small group of workers who are men working in classic blue-collar jobs.
Whilst the reality of modern America is...

"The Labour Party under Keir Starmer will abandon its core idealism and principles and it won't even gain tactical advantage. It will be a party which gives no one a reason to vote for it, and then no one will, in fact, vote for it." . - David Graeber

Some polls putting Labour on as low as 21% and set-to drop further. David Graeber was right.

"Real love, the only kind genuinely worthy of the name, is a kind of dialectical overcoming. It only becomes possible at the point where one comes to understand the full reality of one’s beloved, which necessarily, means encountering even those qualities one finds infuriating, loathsome, or detestable. . For surely, if you know enough about anyone, you will find something in them that you hate. But it’s only when one encounters that, and decides nonetheless to love them anyway, that we can talk of love as an active, redemptive, and powerful force. And some element of hatred, however small, must always remain there for this to continue to be true. Real love can only be love if it conquerors hatred, but not by annihilating but by containing and transcending it, and not just once, but forever." . - David Graeber

An interesting extract from David Graeber's 'Hatred has become a political taboo.'

davidgraeber.org/articles/hat...

you can't spell "tariffs" without "FFS"

As the author of a history of concentration camps, I would like to emphasize that this is a very bad idea, and we should definitely not do it.

Stocks tumble again as US hits China with 104% tariffs, Treasuries slammed Major stocks indexes sank in Asia on Wednesday after President Donald Trump's eye-watering 104% tariffs on China took effect, while a savage selloff in Treasuries sparked fears foreign funds were fleeing U.S. assets.

Major stocks indexes sank in Asia after President Donald Trump's eye-watering 104% tariffs on China took effect, while a savage selloff in Treasuries sparked fears foreign funds were fleeing US assets reut.rs/3E1fIYX

Chances that @adamtooze.bsky.social will say "well they are apocalyptic is what they are" on Fridays podcast 99%. Other 1%? not even gonna mention them.

The idea behind allowing arms to citizens has nothing to do with self-defense (prerogative of police) or defending the country (prerogative of the army). It's the ultimate check to the authority of the state that may become tyrannical and deny the civil rights of its citizens.

I have this thing where I will treat you exactly how you profess you want to treat others. works remarkably well

I received a heartbreaking email today: A paper in a special issue I’m editing is being retracted because one of its authors is afraid of losing their job and their legal status in the U.S. if they publish a scientific study on evolution. Yes, on evolution, nature's engine of diversity.

is there any question more darkly hilarious than a doctor in this, the year twenty twenty five, asking you if there's any way to reduce stress in your life

Timothy Snyder and Jason Stanley both leaving the US. I can’t say it’s a bad call.

The Rafah Municipality in southern Gaza announced that fuel supplies to all water wells in the city have been halted due to the continued Israeli blockade and the closure of crossings.

🔴 LIVE updates: aje.io/kb975q

Peace economy is messed up? Don't fix it, just build more tanks. Maybe they will come in handy. God we never learn. Anywhoo, here's a toast to military Keynesianism. www.facebook.com/share/p/1Bn1...

The thing that makes an isolationist, extremist, nationalistic into a Hitler type problem, is their willingness to replace consumer demand with government war economy plans.
Also veterans are not today as extremist and desperate as the Freikorps had been.
Finally, Trump is fundamentally selfish.

DOLLAR ASSET HOLDINGS AND HEDGING AROUND THE GLOBE—for more insight visit this morning’s Chartbook Top Link. Sign up here: tinyurl.com/yzaj7rjc

The price of coffee is surging to painful levels. Visit today’s Chartbook Top Link to find out more. Sign up here: tinyurl.com/2bxbrkvd

So 8 people die in Cyprus in a bout of severe cold weather that to be honest is not even that severe compared to the worst out there. That is one impact in the intersection of real estate policies, austerity, corruption, regulation and climate change I never ever saw coming. But there we are #cyprus

Συμβαίνει τώρα: Ισραηλινά τανκς εισβάλουν σε 3 προσφυγικούς καταυλισμούς στις περιοχές Τζενίν & Τουλκάρμ απ’ όπου εκδιώχθηκαν 40.000 Παλαιστίνιοι. Είναι υπαρκτός κι άμεσος ο κίνδυνος να αφανιστούν αυτοί οι καταυλισμοί. Αυτή η γενοκτονία πρέπει να σταματήσει. Τώρα!

The wounds of the 1944 deportation still fester in Chechnya and beyond The tragic history of trauma and repression in Chechnya must be a warning for those who want to abandon Ukraine.

The tragic history of trauma and repression in Chechnya must be a warning for those who want to abandon the Ukrainian people.

— writes Marat Iliyasov for #AJOpinion ⤵️

In 2024, Vietnam had the third largest trade surplus with the United States, ahead of Taiwan or Germany. A success that puts it in the crosshairs of Trump tariffs. Click here for insights from Chartbook: tinyurl.com/4myu898d.

Professional historians survey the historical record and draw conclusions out of the sum total of evidence they survey.

In sharp contrast, "originalists" [sic] start with a conclusion they want to justify and then scour the historical record to find some way to prop that up.