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Thom Baguley

@seriousstats.bsky.social

Mostly posting about statistics and Psychology.

749 Followers  |  1,220 Following  |  76 Posts  |  Joined: 10.08.2024  |  2.2357

Latest posts by seriousstats.bsky.social on Bluesky

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Children trapped in Texas immigration facility recount nightmares, inedible food, no school A photo of Liam Conejo Ramos, a scared 5-year-old, drew attention to a detention center in Dilley, Texas. Advocates say his experience reflects what hundreds of children have endured out of public vie...

Maria is one of hundreds of children, who β€” like Liam Ramos β€” have been held at a Texas detention facility where parents say children languish as they’re served contaminated food, receive little education and struggle to obtain basic medical care.

Here's our attempt at telling their stories. 2/

06.02.2026 18:25 β€” πŸ‘ 2365    πŸ” 1181    πŸ’¬ 37    πŸ“Œ 65
Promised Data Unavailable? – I’m Sorry, Ma’am, There’s Nothing We Can Do β€” Meta-Research Center This blogpost has been written by MichΓ¨le Nuijten. MichΓ¨le is an assistant professor of our research group who investigates reproducibility and replicability in psychology. Also, she is the developer ...

I wrote a blog for the Meta-Research Center expressing my infinite frustration about not getting data. What else is new, you might think? Well, I added an extra layer of annoyance directed at the journals who do NOTHING to enforce promised data sharing.

metaresearch.nl/blog/2026/2/...

03.02.2026 15:03 β€” πŸ‘ 56    πŸ” 36    πŸ’¬ 6    πŸ“Œ 4

All fine by me.

06.02.2026 18:52 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Firmly believe this would serve multiple needs.

29.01.2026 21:32 β€” πŸ‘ 138    πŸ” 34    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 2

If I don't know the area I'm likely to read the introduction carefully from the start.

26.01.2026 19:34 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Varies, but I usually skim intro and discussion. Then look at methods and results. Usually results in detail and back to methods for clarification. If it is important I'll go back and read the paper from start as one read-through is rarely enough.

26.01.2026 19:32 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Wouldn’t have made it out of the VEEP writers room

26.01.2026 16:58 β€” πŸ‘ 8683    πŸ” 1493    πŸ’¬ 125    πŸ“Œ 53

I'm in the UK but still getting a lot of coverage of this. I mostly follow friends in science and academia, but many are in the US.

25.01.2026 15:34 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Oh and Election Concerns too ...

25.01.2026 15:26 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

It's still on my trending topics under the NRA Criticism label. I think the reason it is not so prominent is maybe that a lot of people are just emotionally exhausted and maybe switching off from news for the rest of Sunday.

25.01.2026 15:24 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

I was a sensitive kid. I loved cats. I had OCD, undiagnosed.

When I was 9, a fraternity brother tortured a cat to death in my hometown. The details even now are beyond imagination. archive.is/xdmUL

I was traumatized for years from reading the news story.

The torturer? Now the head of the NRA.

25.01.2026 04:55 β€” πŸ‘ 9945    πŸ” 3052    πŸ’¬ 325    πŸ“Œ 257

This is the paper:

Felix B. Muniz & David P. MacKinnon (21 May 2025): Three
Approaches to Testing for Statistical Suppression, Multivariate Behavioral Research, DOI:
10.1080/00273171.2025.2483245

25.01.2026 15:17 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Yes. They are closely linked. Not really my area but I did read a nice paper on it recently. Suppression is a more general concept and whether they are identical depends on your definition of suppression.

25.01.2026 15:16 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Psychological Statistics

I just wrote a short blog post on effect sizes for simple mediation. Not a topic usually write about but it was prompted by something I read that sent me to check the literature and down a bit of a rabbit hole.

psychologicalstatistics.blogspot.com

25.01.2026 14:06 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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What can history teach us about what happens when a populist strongman with an idiosyncratic taste for low interest rates undermines central bank independence?

12.01.2026 01:44 β€” πŸ‘ 11825    πŸ” 4678    πŸ’¬ 242    πŸ“Œ 286
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High school senior, a U.S. citizen, detained by ICE in Oregon The 17-year-old was held more than five hours Friday in an ICE facility, his brother said.

The teenager told officers he was a U.S. citizen, but an officer broke the car’s driver’s side window and detained him. In a video, the boy can be heard telling an officer that he is a citizen, to which the officer replies, β€œGet out of the car” and β€œI don’t care.”
www.oregonlive.com/portland/202...

22.11.2025 16:15 β€” πŸ‘ 1753    πŸ” 939    πŸ’¬ 56    πŸ“Œ 82
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Paper in Language and Cognition with @marktorrance.bsky.social and @seriousstats.bsky.social

We show that semantic contrast shapes timing of pre-planning in speech and writing.

doi.org/10.1017/lang...

If you're into how context shapes how we plan language, check it out!

22.10.2025 15:33 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 5    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Psychology: Fully funded PhD Studentship in ESRC Wales Graduate School for the Social Sciences (WGSSS) PhD Psychology pathway (RS896) - Swansea University We offer a wide range of funded and fully funded research scholarships in all subject areas. Explore your options and apply now.

We've got funded PhD places in Psychology available at Swansea - a chance to work on social issues with members of our great team (including me!) www.swansea.ac.uk/postgraduate...

02.10.2025 09:38 β€” πŸ‘ 11    πŸ” 8    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Last but not least, paracetamol is probably the safest painkiller in pregnancy and untreated fevers can themselves cause serious health problems for mothers and babies. (5)

22.09.2025 14:11 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

At best the evidence is mixed. Importantly, the review says in its conclusions: "observational limitations preclude definitive causation". (4)

22.09.2025 14:09 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Main evidence is a review study of I think nearly 50 studies with 100,000 participants. However there is a Swedish cohort study with nearly 3 million participants showing no effect and lack of dose response. (3)

22.09.2025 14:09 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

First it's well understood that most if not all the rise in autism diagnosis can be explained by earlier diagnosis, wider awareness and broadening of diagnostic criteria. For example most of the recent growth is in women. For this to be due to Paracetamol would be wildly implausible. (2)

22.09.2025 13:53 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

It's reported that the US government is going to announce they've found the cause of autism (Spoliers: They almost certainly haven't even found one new potential cause). Paracetemol (Tylenol) during pregnancy is the supposed culprit. This seems unlikely to put it mildly. (1)

22.09.2025 13:50 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Trump:

"When you have a network, and you have evening shows, and all they do is hit Trump... They're not allowed to do that."

18.09.2025 20:18 β€” πŸ‘ 2786    πŸ” 901    πŸ’¬ 753    πŸ“Œ 853

Monarez agrees that vaccines are safe and effective, and outlines her worries about an anti-vax world.

"I believe that preventable diseases would return, and our children will be harmed by things they do not need to be harmed by."

She affirms that vaccines are a major public health advancement.

17.09.2025 14:47 β€” πŸ‘ 33    πŸ” 5    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

I really miss when the stats blogs I read had light-hearted examples like "here is the concept of a multi-variate outlier explained through beer" rather than "here is another example of a logical fallacy being shared by the head of a national health agency"

17.09.2025 15:12 β€” πŸ‘ 25    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
A cartoon vaccine with a orange shield. Background is pink and green. We see money bags of dollars and euros.

A cartoon vaccine with a orange shield. Background is pink and green. We see money bags of dollars and euros.

Return-on-investment was $60 - $475 for every $1 invested in COVID vaccines in their first year, making them one of the most cost-effective public health measures in history. buff.ly/lfdINel

#medsky #pedsky πŸ›ŸπŸ˜·πŸ§ͺπŸ’Έ

05.09.2025 23:22 β€” πŸ‘ 240    πŸ” 94    πŸ’¬ 9    πŸ“Œ 3
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Sign the Petition Adopt Registered Reports at Psychological Methods

as editor, I'm actually signing the petition myself :)

==
Adopt Registered Reports at Psychological Methods - Sign the Petition! chng.it/wszLWM4KPX
==

e.g., look forward to exploring options for preregistration for the journal

@apajournals.bsky.social
@akmontoya.bsky.social

26.08.2025 18:40 β€” πŸ‘ 32    πŸ” 11    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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When do we actually think about what we want to say and what words to use? Interestingly our mind does a lot of this work while we're writing text. In fact, we demonstrated (psycnet.apa.org/record/2026-...) that even young writers often don't stop before starting a new sentence. Way to multitask!

19.08.2025 13:27 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Drug (opioid) deaths and maybe car accidents might vary a lot by states also (in the accident category). Homicide probably a factor too (but behind the other causes I'd guess).

03.09.2025 16:52 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

@seriousstats is following 19 prominent accounts