Nick Roy

all my homies live in a low dimensional feature subspace

New blog post with my colleague on how new policy decisions expose fossil dependent grids to greater electricity price uncertainty.

www.resources.org/common-resou...

Also includes analysis of OBBBA and OBBBA + CPS repeal impacts on household electricity expenditures. We also incorporate more recent electricity demand projections that EPA excluded from their analysis.

Hidden Costs of Repealing EPA’s Carbon Pollution Standards: Consequences for the Environment, Households, and Society Hidden Costs of Repealing EPA’s Carbon Pollution Standards: Consequences for the Environment, Households, and Society

For those curious about the impacts of EPAs Carbon Pollution Standard repeal.

www.rff.org/publications...

TLDR:
- health + climate damages > savings in compliance costs
- health damages outweigh compliance cost savings 2-4x.
- health + climate damages outweigh compliance cost savings 4-8x.

I think one mental model of renewables was that the government had anywhere from neutral to positive association with them. I think this is the first time we’re seeing direct opposition to this technology in the US in such open ways. We don’t really know what comes of that

State carbon markets are the policy laboratory for US climate policy we all should be watching. Especially as we watch federal support for carbon emissions reductions evaporate.

Federal climate action is slowing, but states are using emissions trading systems to cut emissions and raise state revenue. RFF Research Associate Nicholas Roy explains how in this new In Focus video 👇

What does the One Big "Beautiful" Bill mean for the US energy transition, household and business energy costs, electricity supplies and emissions? We've published a quick summary report of our findings here: doi.org/10.5281/zeno... #OBBB
🔌💡

Opinion | A carbon tariff is the right way to confront China on trade Climate-friendly tariffs would penalize countries that undercut U.S. companies with dirtier production.

This Op-Ed on a U.S. carbon tariff gets lots of basic stuff wrong.

Unlike authors' claims, a U.S. carbon tariff

1. Won't address PRC competition
2. Either raises lots of revenue or lowers GHGs (not both)
3. Weakens incentives to adopt domestic U.S. climate policy. 🧵 1/

#econsky #climatesky

I agree with all of Kyle’s critiques and would add 2 more:

1. The piece cites Australia and Canada as countries where voters rejected carbon prices, but that’s not true. In AUS it’s called a “safeguard mechanism” and was put in place in 2023. CAN kept the price for industries the focus of the piece

the 2028 phaseout is under commence construction instead of placed in service like the house bill. Big deal!

Senate Finance text is out. Solar and wind out by 2028 except one weird carveout. Batteries keep full ITC /PTC and expanded component eligibility in 45X?

(Text keeps transferability but gets rid of 5-year MACRS depreciation on *all* zero-emissions tech. Bad for clean firm!)

Read the full paper here: www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adt5665

Or the two-page summary: restservice.epri.com/publicattach...

Or the tl;dr thread: bsky.app/profile/bist...

@aafawcett.bsky.social @jessedjenkins.com @nicholasroy.me @aliciaszhao.bsky.social

With @cagovernornewsom.bsky.social's budget out, CA cap-and-trade reauthorization is fully underway.

Today, we release a UCSB emLab analysis showing how C&T revenue can significantly lower California's too-high retail electricity prices.

Exec summary, paper, online calculator below.

Short 🧵1/

UCSB researchers just released a great analysis of how to use the state's cap-and-trade program revenues to invest in energy affordability. 1 pager, policy brief, and online calculator are all great tools! emlab.ucsb.edu/projects/usi...

I think "baffling" rhetoric is what he is muddying more so than the politics (of course there is some of that too). It is a risky experiment that could be justified if there is meaningful policy progress. I share your skepticism but am optimistic that meaningful outcomes could materialize.

This was a great breakdown of the political economy in California. Another element to this is the national stage of Newsom v. Trump creating a "your with us or against us" vibe to California legislating. Second order to what you describe, but courageous leadership (from either side) could elevate it

Great thread unraveling right now that is breaking down the political history of California's cap-and-trade and how we got to today's reauthorization.

Wow. I am waiting with bated breath.

Projected Impacts of Repealing the Section 45Y and 48E Technology-Neutral Clean Electricity Tax Credits Projected Impacts of Repealing the Section 45Y and 48E Technology-Neutral Clean Electricity Tax Credits

Many are saying the current reconciliation proposal is equivalent to a full repeal of the IRA. We analyzed the repeal of clean electricity tax credits in an earlier issue brief.

Household, fiscal, and emissions impacts all included!

www.rff.org/publications...

Great points! Ultimately I guess it matters less given the extent of FEOC and other restrictions.

I’m still not sure transferability is hindered substantially if it weren’t for additional restrictions placed on these credits.

I meant more broadly how long until a project goes from
"commence construction" before it is "placed in service". In the case of direct pay:

project commences construction before 2027, probably goes online in 2031 when the tax credit is almost expired.

Are projects building faster than 3 years?

Yes, but construction commencement beginning in 2026 is pretty broad language. Isn't there still the 4-year safe harbor?

Reading the transferability language for PTC/ITC it seems like they repeal when the tax credit value goes to 0....

I don't see how transferability (for the PTC/ITC) is effectively changed at all?

In short, uncertain how much it slows decarb. In theory clean electricity tax credits are still active until end of decade. Depends how fast you can build and how much domestic manufacturing can accelerate.

I am mostly focused on clean electricity tax credits which have an accelerated phase down timeline beginning in 2029. I expected an earlier repeal. However, many other provisions related to foreign entities of concern and non-power sector decarb are facing more stringent repeal. .

The ways and means adjustment to IRA clean electricity tax credits are out. Phaseout of tax credits begins in 2029-2032. Modeling coming soon.
waysandmeans.house.gov/wp-content/u...

GitHub - macroenergy/MacroEnergy.jl Contribute to macroenergy/MacroEnergy.jl development by creating an account on GitHub.

github.com/macroenergy/... Cool model for those interested in macro-energy systems modeling!

This is the best technical source for the premature discussions on the Iberian blackout that I've seen. This professional is fair minded and he puts the blame on the N-2 generation failures and the islanding while also saying inertia was not the issue

www.linkedin.com/posts/luisba...

Cool, now do GHG emissions (or at least CO2)