Lauri Myllyvirta

September production data, to be released next Monday, will give the next indication.

A crystal ball for solar in China? The production minus exports of solar cells tends to predict new installations with a lag. While installations predictably slumped since May with new pricing policy, production has been strong for two months, suggesting pick up in installations.

While China is at just over 20% clean energy in the total energy mix, the country is not alone in having a long way to go - the country just overtook the U.S. and the world average in clean energy share in 2024. So we need about 5x as much clean energy globally as we have now.

For example, here's the primary energy mix - note not just electricity but all energy - for Brazil, Finland and France, a few of the countries that have reached a high share and achieved rapid increases of clean energy in their energy mixes.

For those of us who try to communicate the clean energy trends and highlight the evidence of what clean energy is capable of, tweets like this are a reminder to sharpen our messages and highlight success stories outside of China.

But such a turnaround - coming close to peaking or plateauing emissions from fossil fuel use - obviously does not mean that China would have achieved a significant reduction in emissions or a clean energy system. Peaking is just the very first step in getting there.

What the budding turnaround looks like is that China has since early 2024 covered its energy demand growth almost fully from clean energy - for the first time without a sharp slowdown in demand growth. A great achievement given rapid growth and vast scale of China's energy use.

In a word, China's budding emission turnaround matters because the country is the world's largest emitter and until recently largest source of emission growth. Duh?

The reason why China's clean energy boom matters so much is the exact opposite -- because China's fossil fuel use grew so fast, and the energy system is so fossil-fuel dominated.

In contrast, China does NOT lead the world in how fast it's adding clean energy in relation to the size of its energy market, and most definitely does not lead the world in how clean its energy or power mix is.

3) if you're interested in industrial policy and economic and technological competition, the size of the home market matters. If e.g. the EU lets the home market for wind, EVs and other key technologies to continue to wither, our cleantech industry is done for.

2) people used to think, and astonishingly sometimes still do, that clean energy can't deliver at the massive scale needed to power advanced economies. The fact that China adds enough clean power to run most other countries, in a single year, blows this out of the water.

China deploys by far the most solar, wind, EVs, nuclear, battery storage, heat pumps and many other clean tech - in absolute terms. This is relevant because:
1) globally, we just need clean energy to grow (much) faster than total energy demand, so it's a game of gigawatts.

Since tweets like this continue to travel and I get similar responses every time I post something positive about China, it's maybe good to point out where China's progress on clean energy is and isn't world-leading and/or game-changing. 🧵

China's coal imports fell 3% in September, and are down 11% year-to-date. Fossil gas imports fell 8% in September, -6% year-to-date. Net oil imports are up 2% year-to-date, 3% in September, and oil product exports are rising fast in October, indicating easing demand.

Carmakers demand EU eases ‘rigid’ 2035 petrol car ban Environmental groups say carmakers’ demands risk halving electric vehicle sales in Europe

If you want an explanation of why China is kicking the EU car industry to the curb, look no further than the criminally knuckle dragging EU car makers demanding new loopholes so they don't have to meet any meaningful low emission targets for cars in the EU.
www.ft.com/cIfontent/5a...

Mihaela Papa giving a speech on stage with FIIA roll ups in the background.

Lauri Myllyvirta talking to Karoliina Pietarila on stage, both seated.

💡 With the US withdrawing, will BRICS fill the void in climate leadership?

Addressing the question at FIIA Climate Day event "Expanding BRICS in global climate governance" were Mihaela Papa, MIT Center for International Studies & @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social, @creacleanair.bsky.social.

I'm one of the authors of this work. Great progress with the power sector but lots of challenges with industry and transportation.

Ember has a new great tracker for these exports that provides a lot of detail:
bsky.app/profile/nico...

EV exports are mostly passenger vehicles, with some pick-up in electric trucks and buses but far behind China's own domestic progress with rolling out electric heavy vehicles.

Asia and Middle East stand out for solar, along with the EU. Big auto producer countries import the most batteries, and EU imports the most EVs, but the most striking thing is how broad-based the exports are.

China's clean energy technology exports continued strong growth in August, increasing 33% in dollar value year-on-year, with EVs +58%, solar +18%, wind +15% and batteries +23%. Exports grew to all regions except North America, evidencing strong demand.

AI-Driven Demand for Gas Turbines Risks a New Energy Crunch Orders for turbines to power natural gas plants are vastly outpacing supply, threatening the world’s ability to keep pace with rising electricity demand.

There are a lot of gas-fired power projects in the world that should have been solar+storage projects. This shortage should and could prompt a rethink.
www.bloomberg.com/features/202...

Webinar: Experts discuss what China's new climate pledge means for the world - Carbon Brief Carbon Brief hosts webinar with China climate policy experts to discuss assessments of what the NDC means for China’s emissions pathway.

Thank you to everyone who joined our webinar on China’s new climate pledge🎙️

Thanks also to our panelists: Li Shuo @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social @rynacui.bsky.social @anikanpatel.carbonbrief.org @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org

If you missed the webinar, you can watch it here ⬇️
buff.ly/zUSLhUp

Source for the capacity data:
www.nea.gov.cn/20250926/2e8...

The change in pricing is happening at a challenging time, with easing power demand and very large amounts of new coal&gas-fired power capacity also coming on. 50GW thermal power was added in Jan-Aug, up from 29GW a year earlier, with well over 100GW expected for the whole year.

The government aims to keep annually added clean power capacity above 200 GW per year in 2026-27, and at an average of 200 GW in the next decade based on the recently announced 2035 climate targets. The hope is that realized growth will continue to substantially exceed these targets.

One piece of good news is that solar utilization recovered to long-term average in July after tanking during the boom months. I expected that the sharp drop was due to start-up and grid connection pains.

For wind, the capacity additions in June-August are in fact tracking the pace in the preceding two years. The end of the year is expected to see a substantial amount of large centralized solar and wind projects connected given it's the end of the five-year period.

China's wind and solar capacity additions have cooled down as expected after the rush in March-May, driven by the change in pricing policy. 8 GW of solar and 4 GW of wind was added to the grid in August, and 2025 seems comfortably on track to a new annual record.
bsky.app/profile/laur...