Maria Tadeo

Drama averted at NATO. After calling for an exemption to the 5% new spending target, Spanish sources say NATO will indeed provide “flexibility” to Madrid. This was communicated via letter from Rutte. Spanish say no issues approving Allied declaration as a result, per sources.

Von der Leyen out now with a statement that tries to walk a fine line between support (“Iran must never acquire the bomb”) and veiled criticism (“respect for international law is critical”) of US actions

Spanish are serious about their rejection to 5%. They argue it will rush off-the-shelf purchases, making a mess of interoperability and undermine made in Europe. Funding at EU-level unresolved. And - food for thought - target incompatible with the European welfare state. See you at The Hague

Israel approved plans on Monday to take full control of the Gaza Strip and remain in the territory for an unspecified period, according to two Israeli officials.

Europe ready to make Trump a €50bn trade offer, says EU negotiator Maroš Šefčovič tells FT of ‘certain progress’ but warns bloc will not settle for higher US tariff baseline

«Asked whether he would accept a 10 per cent levy as a floor in trade talks, Sefcovic said the EU regarded that as a “very high level”, suggesting that the bloc would not settle for a deal that kept tariffs at that level.»

www.ft.com/content/2d7c...

"That said, the notion of recession is less well-defined in European countries with low potential growth ... [there is] a low bar for a technical recession in Europe."

Ouch, Goldman Sachs. Too mean.

Operator can track and quantify outage, but can’t explain (yet) what caused it. European officials suggested no indication of cyber attack, but Spanish PM refused twice to rule out any scenario. Meanwhile, Ukraine is offering assistance and the EPP is going ahead with its party congress in Valencia.

Spanish PM confirms what sources had briefed earlier - in the space of five seconds, 15 GW were “suddenly lost” from system or the equivalent of 60% of total energy demand at that time. Drop led to worst blackout in modern history. PM says not ruling out any scenario.

Von der Leyen met Trump very briefly on the sidelines. No bilateral sitdown expected today. Top spox say they “agreed to meet” without providing further details on timing or format. A separate official told me you don’t solve a trade spat during a funeral. It was an icebreaker.

«Nuestra política exterior es global y con identidad propia», una conversación con José Manuel Albares - El Grand Continent Mientras que la «pausa» en la guerra comercial de Trump salva —parcial y temporalmente— a los europeos, la visita de Pedro Sánchez a Pekín ha suscitado un gran debate. ¿Está España a la vanguardia de...

Tras el muy comentado viaje de Pedro Sánchez a Pekín, mi entrevista con el ministro de exteriores Albares. Estados Unidos, China y una política exterior que no quieren elegir bandos. Sin embargo la política comercial y la guerra arancelaria arrastra al desacople.

legrandcontinent.eu/es/2025/04/1...

EU trade chief confirms 70pc of European exports to the US are facing tariffs. Also important says “USA views tariffs not as a tactical step, but a corrective measure.”

Summing up the week

Qui est vraiment Jianwei Xun ? Une conversation avec Jianwei Xun | Le Grand Continent Des grands médias aux chancelleries, depuis l'émergence du concept d'Hypnocratie dans les pages du Grand Continent Jianwei Xun fascine. Aujourd'hui, nous dévoilons le dispositif au cœur de sa véritab...

Des grands médias aux chancelleries, depuis l'émergence du concept d'Hypnocratie dans les pages du Grand Continent, Jianwei Xun fascine.

Aujourd'hui, nous dévoilons le dispositif au cœur de sa véritable identité.

legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/04/0...

«The problem with the anti-coercion instrument is that it has never been used before, so it will have to be drafted very carefully to make sure it is effective, but also taking into account the precedent it might set. I would have thought we would have used it against China first.»

A Conversation with Cecilia Malmström - Groupe d'études géopolitiques You were Europe's top trade official when the US under President Trump first imposed tariffs on the Union in 2018. He is expected to unleash a barrage of new tariffs on April 2. How does Trump II comp...

«Trump II tariffs will be much worse, but the administration underestimates the reaction of the rest of the world. The irony is that Trump may end up reviving the rules-based multilateral trading system – without the US»

geopolitique.eu/en/2025/04/0...

South Korea, China, Japan agree to promote regional trade as Trump tariffs loom South Korea, China and Japan held their first economic dialogue in five years on Sunday, seeking to facilitate regional trade as the three Asian export powers brace from U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs.

A diplomat said to me last week White House underestimating effect Liberation Day will have on the rest of the world. Today: « South Korea, China and Japan held their first economic dialogue in five years, seeking to facilitate regional trade.»

www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...

Deutsche Bank in note «In our view, this is a historic fiscal regime shift, arguably the largest since German reunification. Yet fiscal expansion does not guarantee success: the next government will need to deliver structural reforms to turn this fiscal package into sustainable growth.»

Enorme manifestación la que se está produciendo en #Belgrado en estos momentos, contra la corrupción del gobierno de Aleksandar Vučić. La mayor protesta de los últimos 25 años. #Serbia

Giorgetti, su regole Ue Berlino vuol fare quel che gli pare - Ultima ora - Ansa.it "Ora i tedeschi hanno deciso che (sulle regole di bilancio europee, ndr) fanno quel cavolo che gli pare. Siccome non gli va bene a loro adesso, fanno il contrario naturalmente senza aver negoziato nul...

Italy’s Giorgetti «Germany is now doing whatever the hell they want because (the rules) no longer suit them, so they do the opposite. Naturally, without consulting anyone». This is very much aimed for domestic consumption, yet harsh from a usually mild-mannered minister

www.ansa.it/sito/notizie...

What does “France and other EU represented countries” mean?

About today

Dear Americans, dear Ukrainians, don’t waste this chance. The whole world is watching you in Jeddah today. Good luck!

Since taking over DOGE, Elon Musk has lost more of his own wealth than DOGE has managed to save from the budget.

Facing a trade war, EU hyperactive inking alternative deals: Mercosur, agreements with Mexico, Korea, Switzerland, aiming for India FTA this year, in talks with Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, in conversation with Saudi and the UAE. “These are intensive talks”.

EU trade chief Sefcovic says travelled to DC last month in the spirit of finding solutions but «one hand can’t clap without the other - and the USA administration doesn’t seem to be engaging to make a deal.»

Asked multiple times if tariffs can still be avoided - says EU watched over its interests

In his speech to Congress, President Trump claimed that Europe spends more on Russian oil and gas than on supporting Ukraine. This is false. In 2024, European spending to support Ukraine doubled its spending on Russian oil and gas imports. And this has been increasing steady over time.

Top European diplomat Kallas from NATO HQ «We shouldn’t take anything off the table. It plays into Russia’s hands. Why are we giving them everything they want even before negotiations begin? Appeasement has never worked. A deal without the Europeans and Ukraine? It won’t work.»

- if peacekeepers were to be deployed, it must be a non-NATO mission and article 5 not applicable
- rules out US troops in Ukraine

Hegseth lays out framework ahead of MSC:

- return to 2014 borders unrealistic
- rules out Ukraine Nato membership
- security guarantees have to be robust (no Minsk 3.0) but clear that is mostly a responsibility for Europeans (Zelensky had said prior it wouldn’t be enough)

«When targeted unfairly or arbitrarily - the European Union will respond firmly» says Ursula von der Leyen after Brussels summit.