Noah Barkin

Watching China in Europe—August 2025 Inflection Point

🇨🇳 "It would be a supreme irony if Europe was accelerating its turn away from China just as Trump was leaning back in."

👀 In the latest edition of Watching China in Europe, GMF's @noahbarkin.bsky.social analyzes the outcomes of the Summit and other recent EU-China developments: buff.ly/xMhh1ly

Lula’s Defiance Pays Off as Trump Blinks on Brazil Tariffs Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s defiant response to Donald Trump’s 50% tariff threat was validated Wednesday — at least in the short term — with markets and businesses breathing a collect...

Brazil calls Trump’s bluff and he backs down

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The EU has validated Trump’s bullying trade agenda The US president’s deals are not a win-win for the global economy

Missing from this FT editorial is the crucial fact that this deal, from an EU perspective, had more to do with keeping US security guarantees intact than it did with trade. The fear was that Trump would use EU retaliation as an excuse to pull back from NATO on.ft.com/4miPJfW

Growth that exceeds expectations is a reason to cut interest rates according to these numbskulls

The China shock is hitting Germany with greater force. In the first 5 months of the year, imports from China surged 10% while exports to China slumped 14%. But EU tariffs on Chinese EVs appear to be having an effect: imports fell 38% year-on-year in Jan-May 2025

www.iwkoeln.de/fileadmin/us...

Fact Sheet: The United States and European Union Reach Massive Trade Deal MAKING GLOBAL HISTORY: Yesterday, President Donald J. Trump announced a trade deal with the European Union (EU), fundamentally rebalancing the economic

Believe it or not, the EU-US trade deal just got messier.

The White House has published a fact-sheet about the agreement with claims that directly contradict the European Commission's version of events.

Let's take a closer look.

Watching China in Europe—August 2025

Out early this month - the August edition of Watching China in Europe. I delve into the EU-China summit, Europe’s de-risking challenge, a confidential new China survey from the Federation of German Industries, and Trump’s wobble on China

www.gmfus.org/news/watchin...

How the EU succumbed to Trump’s tariff steamroller Relief at avoiding trade war is tinged with regret at not taking firmer stand from the start

Excellent FT piece on how the EU succumbed to Trump’s trade extortion: “Rather than join Canada and China with instant retaliation and inflict pain on US consumers and businesses, the EU — hamstrung by divergent views among its member states — chose to take the pain”

on.ft.com/471fKvG

EU, US Reach Deal to Avoid Trump Tariff Hike Before Deadline The US and European Union agreed to deal that will see the bloc face 15% tariffs on most of its exports, including automobiles, staving off a trade war that could have delivered a hammer blow to the g...

If this brings a degree of certainty to the transatlantic trade relationship, then it’s a good thing. EU carmakers will welcome the cut in US tariffs to 15%. But if steel/aluminum stays at 50% & pharma is not covered, the EU will be swallowing a lot.

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Hard to overstate how important the coming year will be for VW in China. Sales have plunged and new models must deliver the promised turnaround - or things will get very ugly. Augen zu und durch…

The ignorance of local German politicians when it comes to China (and Taiwan) never ceases to astound.

Joint EU-China press statement on climate At the EU-China Summit in Beijing, the following joint press statement was agreed:\nThe Way Forward After the 10th Anniversary Of the Adoption of the Paris Agreement\nOn the occasion of the 50th anniv...

The EU-China joint statement on climate looks fairly empty

ec.europa.eu/commission/p...

Charles Michel shows his ignorance by blaming the lack of a joint statement at today’s EU-China summit on EU disunity. In fact it is a sign of progress (and unity) that empty joint statements are no longer accepted by the EU.

www.euractiv.com/section/poli...

The evolution of Marco Rubio Once an advocate of US soft power, the secretary of state has embraced Maga values from isolationism to impatience with foreign aid

Marco Rubio’s MAGA metamorphosis: “He’s not the first politician to sacrifice principle to political ambition. But he has certainly taken it to the next level.” @guychazan.bsky.social

on.ft.com/44HAcAo

The Looming US-EU Trade Collision and a Preview of the EU-China Summit with Noah Barkin | The Eurofile | CSIS Podcasts Max and Otto discuss President Trump’s latest tariff threats and the timid European response.

As pressure from both the US + Beijing continue to heighten trade tensions in Europe, Thursday's EU-China Summit will be a key stress-test of European unity.

🎧 @noahbarkin.bsky.social joined @maxbergmann.bsky.social to discuss options and expectations for Brussels ⬇️
www.csis.org/podcasts/eur...

US and EU close in on 15% tariff deal Agreement would mirror accord with Japan and head off Trump’s threat to raise duties to 30%

“The Japan agreement made clear the terms of the shakedown,” said one EU diplomat. “Most member states are holding their noses and could take this deal”

on.ft.com/453f9r1

‘POTUS is clearly furious’: White House is frustrated by all-consuming Epstein coverage Officials and allies close to the White House detail the mood inside an administration haunted by a notorious sex offender who died by suicide nearly six years ago.

The president is frustrated with his staff’s inability to tamp down conspiracy theories they once spread

www.politico.com/news/2025/07...

Macrons file US lawsuit over claims France’s first lady was born male Case against rightwing influencer Candace Owens is a rare defamation suit from a serving world leader

Presumably, baseless slander of foreign leaders’ families is the kind of “free speech” Vance and Rubio have been fighting for

www.ft.com/content/d9bf...

More batshit crazy stuff from the State Department

Ozzy Osbourne, ‘Prince of Darkness’ Turned Reality TV Star, Dies at 76

RIP Ozzy

www.nytimes.com/2025/07/22/a...

EU leaders brace for frosty China summit as trade frictions bite Expectations are rock-bottom for an EU-China summit on Thursday that will test European resolve and unity as the bloc faces intense trade pressure from both Beijing and the United States, analysts say.

“This will be the latest in a long list of EU-China summits that have delivered next to nothing. It is a sign that the economic and security problems in the relationship have become so deep-seated as to be irreconcilable.”

www.reuters.com/world/china/...

‘Make Ishiba Go Away’: Japan’s LDP reels after historic defeat Long-ruling party faces crisis with populists capturing working people’s vote as traditional rural base shrinks

Japan’s answer to MAGA is MIGA - Make Ishiba Go Away

on.ft.com/4kOUgW4

Scott Bessent calls for probe into ‘the entire Federal Reserve institution’ Treasury secretary is latest top Trump administration official to criticise the central bank

Very dangerous message from a Treasury Secretary who should know better

on.ft.com/46kXkWH

As Trump Courts a More Assertive Beijing, China Hawks Are Losing Out

“It appears some competitive US actions are now at the whims of Beijing, who can now determine the time, place and nature of US tech and trade policy toward China” - Rand’s Jimmy Goodrich

www.nytimes.com/2025/07/20/u...

Enjoyed talking EU-China relations in the Trump era with @maxbergmann.bsky.social

www.csis.org/podcasts/eur...

German defence minister calls on arms makers to deliver ‘There is no reason to complain any more,’ says Boris Pistorius in FT interview ahead of trip to Washington

Germany is lucky to have someone like Pistorius overseeing the defense ramp-up

on.ft.com/44ZKziZ

Perhaps it means that he won’t take them lying down

US demands to know what allies would do in event of war over Taiwan Trump administration says it is trying to prevent war but raises eyebrows by calling for commitments from Australia and Japan

The US is pressing Japan & Australia to clarify what they would do in the event of a war over Taiwan
on.ft.com/44q2D5J

Macron urges EU to ready anti-coercion instrument for US after 30% tariff threat

Spain awards Huawei contracts to manage intelligence agency wiretaps Huawei will manage and store judicially authorized wiretaps in Spain, under a contract that bucks the trend of Western governments restricting use of the Chinese tech company's products and services.

After caving in to Chinese pressure on EV duties last year and resisting NATO defense spending targets last month, Sanchez’s Spain has chosen Huawei to manage the wiretaps of its intelligence agency.

therecord.media/spain-awards...