Fergus Turtle

People are fretting way too much about this.

Looking at the electoral systems and current polling, Plaid should easily take 3 seats in Sir Gâr and be on the hunt for a 4th.

If Plaid lose out on a 3rd seat they likely have much bigger problems than Adam Price being unseated.

Been very hard to sit on this since the numbers first came through, but worth noting it's a picture consistent with breaks in our GB Westminster polling, which show Labour being hit most in Wales and (even more so) in Scotland.

NFU publishes response to Land Use Framework consultation The NFU has warned that farmers’ ability to continue producing food for the nation could be put at risk by the new Land Use Framework, further putting the government’s commitment to treat food securit...

NFU says Land Use Framework “needs to give food production same priority as delivering environmental targets”

Great - so instead of devoting 70% of English land to intensive agriculture & just 3% for nature, can we now make it 50-50?

Or, y’know, just meet 30x30

www.nfuonline.com/updates-and-...

Honestly I think chaos among UKIP MEPs, MSs, Councillors etc. is an under explored reason for their lowish vote ceiling - and I don't think they were even properly involved in any administrations/governments.

On the basis of these numbers (plus plus if Reform is able to run any councils) Reform's ability to govern is going to be put to the test rather quickly.

If their candidates fail to prove sensible and pragmatic there could well be a lot of scare stories about the party's record in a few years.

Senedd Voting Intention:

LAB: 27% (-2)
RFM: 24% (+5)
PLC: 24% (+4)
CON: 15% (-3)
LDM: 5% (-2)
GRN: 5% (-2)

Via @survation.bsky.social, 10 Mar - 3 Apr.
Changes w/ 18 Oct - 4 Nov.

If Carney gets past 1 I think liberals have enough structural advantages (+ enough help from Trump) to win a minority, but of course that's far from ideal from his perspective

The questions now are 1) will Carney avoid faltering on contact with actual politics (can't be an apolitical technocrat in an election campaign) and 2) will the impact of Trump and renewal give him a majority despite the Liberals' long tenure/cost of living/Carney's stilted french/Polievre's talent

That said I feel like Carney is precision engineered to appeal to Canadians' sense of themselves vis a vis the US (especially with Trump there as a contrast)

Mind you the ol' leader switcheroo doesn't exactly have a history of success in Canada (See John Turner, Kim Campbell, Paul Martin)

LPC: Lazarus Party of Canada

real danger I'll turn this into a column eventually but on the ADHD over diagnosing/over medicalising point - if you really do think that's a problem, why not, for example, try and build an actually inclusive world where all manners of people actually feel like they can lead fulfilling lives?

The Farage piece in the Sunday Tel is the most unintentionally hilarious thing I've read in months. This pearl, for example.

"Sadly, there have been too many similar outbursts from Mr Lowe, often involving the use of inappropriate language, to the despair of our chief whip, Lee Anderson."

Huge win! Government announces plan to open up Land Registry This post is by Guy Shrubsole. Today the UK Government has announced plans to open up the Land Registry – which, if delivered, will finally reveal more about who owns land in England and Wale…

Huge win! Government announces plans to open up the Land Registry.

If delivered, will finally reveal more about who owns land in England and Wales.

Read my blog post for more details & how you can write to the Minister to make sure this now happens:

whoownsengland.org/2025/03/06/h...

🧵1/

Also the utter chaos that was UKIP in the National Assembly for Wales from 2016. A leadership coup was announced on day one and it all devolved (ha) from there.

Only 7 members and they were constantly changing leader, forming new groups or rowing about whether they supported devolution.

Agreed. Building strategic independence from the US will be such a colossal activity that buying time to do it is a strategic imperative in itself.
bsky.app/profile/robe...

Even then, just think how much US things we're reliant on (software, IT hardware etc.). It's going to take a long while to be able to switch to alternatives.

And that's just for starters. The same applies to a huge amount of our foreign (and even some domestic) work. We can start to untangle and pull away but it's going to take at least 4/5 years.

Until then we can't treat the US as even neutral or our ability to do anything will be severely hampered.

To be fair I don't think it's *just* a reluctance to face hard truths.

The reality is our military and intelligence infrastructures are at best very intertwined with the US. At worst we're essentially reliant on them to be at all effective.

I don't think most people realise how completely our military and intelligence services are entwined with the US.

We may well need to become more independent, but it's not something that can happen overnight.

Wales: Nature loss plan criticised for lacking ambition One in six species - such as water voles and curlews - are at risk of vanishing from Wales.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

🚨 Highly critical report of Welsh Government's @welshgovernment.bsky.social lack of action or progress to reverse biodiversity declines in Wales

Published today by @senedd.wales Climate Change & Environment Committee

🧵👇

I just don't think the SNP would have had quite the same impact in the 70s of they'd gone with "devolve powers over the crown estate" over "it's Scotland's oil".

I'm not sure you could design a phrase that sounds drier and more trifling to the average Welsh vote.

To be fair I think there's maybe something in this for Plaid. Something along the lines of resources (energy) being extracted with no clear dividend for local communities.

That said, they need a much better framing than this whole "devolution of the crown estate".

Okay I love rugby again

Lol. Lmao, even.

Really can't stand this "the rise of far right populism is driven by the young" narrative that seems to be developing.

It's totally not substantiated by the data but looks like young people are going to end up getting the rap despite being generally more progressive.