Jason Bell

“Man,” said the Ghost, “[…] It may be, that in the sight of Heaven, you are more worthless and less fit to live than millions like this poor man’s child. Oh God! To hear the Insect on the leaf pronouncing on the too much life among his hungry brothers in the dust.”

Re: predictive power of big 5 I wonder how ADHD or autism spectrum scales would fare. My hunch is maybe not great.

Is psychology going to Cincinnati? OR: The mystery of the televised salad

Kinda interesting.

www.experimental-history.com/p/is-psychol...

Bluesky needs a bookmark feature

Interesting but the claim at the end is definitely not justified. This is noisy, no controls, observational, the blue slope might still be negative, and probably non-trivial measurement error.

Bryan Johnson: meet the man who is ageing backwards The multi-millionaire tech entrepreneur Bryan Johnson has made himself a guinea pig for pioneering longevity research. He talks to Hamish MacBain about how he escaped a life of depression to lead the ...

You know uncanny valley. Bryan Johnson has introduced us to uncanny youth.

www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/we...

This is the second time Seth says something misleading in the same thread. Isaacman has a degree and it is arguably relevant. There is a third case in the thread so Seth is blocked for me. I hate cronyism but crying wolf is counterproductive.

Nature shouldn’t have this category of article at all

I think it’s misleading to say Elon picked the head of NASA. Unless there is extra information that Seth has chosen not to share, it appears Trump chose Isaacman.

Generative artificial intelligence and evaluating strategic decisions Research Summary Strategic decisions are uncertain and often irreversible. Hence, predicting the value of alternatives is important for strategic decision making. We investigate the use of generativ.....

An SMJ paper I'm on is now out

(1) LLM evals of biz models are closer to expert evals than human non-experts (2) LLM gets closer to experts with diversity (models, personas, prompts) and scaling (more repetitions). Scaling effect > diversity effect

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

Yep, I didn't think you were endorsing it as a policy. Neither am I, but if you are a fed employee I think part of the deal is being accountable to the public, even if they want things you don't. And I suspect the public likes this as a policy

Brad, you're awesome. Just saying. I agree about the federal workers. Totally reasonable thing to raise. I bet majority of the US public likes the idea of fed workers being in office. I'd even say that if given the choice, many would prefer a fed worker quit to resisting return to office

I agree with Oleg on all points here. Still think the Atlantic article is worth a read.

Worth a read

Did anybody do an event study on peaches from Georgia’s bad crop yield I wonder

Not saying I don’t believe this but why not do it blinded?

A chatbot that assesses aptitude for a variety of tasks based on interviews and produces a report.

Someone is probably building this already.

People are saying AI has hit a wall. Specifically scaling transformers. I think it this has been obvious for a while. The big question for me is when we enter the steep part of the next s-curve.

Meanwhile some insane tech is hitting "plateau of enlightenment" stage on the hype cycle. AVs.