Erdal Yalcin

(S+) Türkei: »60 Prozent der Bevölkerung leiden unter den drastischen Preissteigerungen« In der Türkei drohen nicht nur politische Spannungen zu eskalieren. Auch wirtschaftlich erlebt das Land schwierige Zeiten. Ökonom Erdal Yalçin erklärt, warum das zum Problem werden kann, für die Mensc...

Interview mit derspiegel zur wirtschaftlichen Lage in der #Türkei.
Die Türkei ist zuletzt aus dem Fokus geraten - zu Unrecht. Die wirtschaftlichen Entwicklungen bleiben brisant.
www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/s...

What’s next for #Türkiye?

Uncertainty is back, driving investors away. The currency weakens further, #inflation resurges. With global interest rates rising, Türkiye finds itself back in #crisis mode.

#Germany has the potential to emerge from these critical years as a major global player.
Knowledge, capital, and strong institutions are there.
The question is: Can political leaders #unite the people behind a clear strategy?
We need to focus on what we can achieve!

The #US and others once pushed #Ukraine to disarm under the Budapest Memorandum. Now, it hesitates to back Ukraine’s defense, claiming Ukraine pushes for war.
The real problem? #Power politics replacing international law; leaving #security commitments meaningless.

#Budapest #Memorandum (1994) gave #Ukraine security assurances in exchange for giving up nuclear weapons. Russia violated it by annexing Crimea (2014) & invading (2022). No enforcement mechanism, as it is a political "promise". A lesson in the limits of "assurances."

When politicians base international relations on deals, academics call it #transactional #policy. The problem is that this approach fails in deeply interconnected and complex policy areas.

Purely deal-based international relations do not work in the long run.

Global #tariffs are on the rise. Politicians often downplay their impact, citing small #GDP effects. But a 0.3 pp drop, e.g., is still significant. More crucially, tariffs can massively reshape industry #structures - far beyond what GDP numbers reveal.
Extreme case: chemicals and pharmaceuticals.

#Tariffs go up overnight, but taking them down can take decades. Trump’s 25% tariff move against the #EU will reshape trade for years.

We face severe trade wars and industrial transformation.

Things become more complicated than necessary.

8/ Instead of tariffs, policymakers should focus on strengthening domestic #competitiveness through investment in infrastructure, education, and innovation.

Trade is complex, but one thing is clear: #protectionism backfires.

7/ In short, #tariffs on intermediate goods act like a #tax on the economy. They may serve political goals, but economically, they increase costs, reduce competitiveness, and hurt consumers.

6/ Tariffs can also slow down investment and innovation. If companies spend more on inputs, they have less capital for R&D, expansion, or hiring.

5/ Some businesses may try to switch to domestic suppliers, but this is not always feasible. Domestic alternatives might not exist or could be more expensive and less efficient.

4/ US companies relying on global supply chains may face competitive disadvantages. If they pay more for inputs than foreign rivals, their costs go up while global competitors remain unaffected.

3/ Higher production costs lead to higher prices for consumers. Whether it is cars, electronics, or household goods, tariffs ultimately hit American wallets.

2/ Around 55% of global goods trade consists of intermediate goods - these are inputs used to produce final goods. When tariffs make them more expensive, production costs rise.

Why will #reciprocal #US #tariffs increase prices in the US?

A thread:

1/ Tariffs may sound like a way to protect domestic industries, but they also increase costs for businesses and consumers. Here's why.
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Sollen wir in #Deutschland nuklear aufrüsten?
#Grundvoraussetzung wäre, dass wir #Nuklearanlagen haben, die entsprechende Ressourcen produzieren.
Erst Frage A lösen, dann Frage B.
Frage A: Sollen wir #Kernkraftwerke in Deutschland bauen?
Debatte ist bisher auf Strom reduziert.

So vertrieb die "Chicken Tax" den VW Bulli aus den USA Was hat Geflügel mit Autos zu tun? An billigem Hähnchenfleisch entzündete sich vor 60 Jahren ein Zollstreit, der bis heute den US-Automarkt prägt.

Das ist korrekt. Eine tiefere Recherche würde zeigen, welche bizarren Motive hinter Zöllen oft stecken.
www.n-tv.de/auto/So-vert...

If someone can dismiss public officials at their own #discretion based on a presidential decision, you are not in a #democracy. In democracies, this is for #emergencies like #war. In totalitarian regimes, it is the norm.

Changing a running system is hard, especially in public institutions.

#Argentina and now the #US are undergoing a historical #experiment - dismantling public structures due to excessive #bureaucracy and #inefficiency.

Long-term effects? #Uncertain.

A major problem in #economics: the lack of research on the #duration of economic #adjustments. Policies are compared by outcomes, but how long adjustments take remains unclear - yet it is is critical for execution. #Time matters!

How can the #EU gain leverage in international business amid a #protectionist #US policy? Prioritizing large markets like #SouthAmerica & securing deep trade #agreements, including #Canada, is essential. A huge opportunity for the EU!

Erdal Yalçin on LinkedIn: #schuldenbremse #schuldenbremse #deutschland #Schuldenbremse: Beibehalten oder anpassen? Heute hat mich eine Schülerin angeschrieben, mit der Bitte, Fragen zur #Schuldenbremse in #Deutschland zu…

Heute hat mich eine #Schülerin angeschrieben, und mich um meine Meinung zur #Schuldenbremse gebeten.
Ich habe meine Antwort hier zusammengefasst:
www.linkedin.com/posts/erdal-...

I won't be able to summarize my views here for time reasons. I try to provide my ideas from time to time, hoping to bring some insights into the debate. Thanks for your understanding.

Well, there are major challenges when it comes to deepening relations with China.
At least in Germany, there are official plans to decouple from China...

#China’s strategy: #trade & #monetary cooperation with emerging markets, bypassing the #US$.
#US strategy: Confrontation, #tariffs, and tech bans.
Result: The #EU weakens, China strengthens.
China is on the stronger path!

We have estimated the impact of #comprehensive #sanctions based on the last 70 years. Result: Trade can drop by 80% if sanctions are imposed on all goods.

The #equivalent #tariff that would lead to a similar drop?

➡️30% on all goods.

Just to give you an idea of the numbers we are talking about.

Whom do you trust in an increasingly #uncertain world?
Uncertainty means having no #clue about what comes next. One answer: those who have proven they possess sharp and fast #intuition. Look around - sense the right people.🌬

Where will #inflation be at the end of 2025? Signs point to a rising global price index. Check inflation #expectations across countries.
History will show: one reason for this rebound in inflation is partly inexperienced #economists failing to account for political uncertainty.

#Industrial #policy is complex, but #Germany’s #AI ambitions boil down to one thing: energy prices. At current levels, Germany is out. Any other story is political prosa.

Check the #electricity needs of AI.