Dan Garrett

I have been thinking this year will be a particularly rough year for economists seeking employment, and this new data tool from the AEA definitely shows that is the case with 1/3 less listings than the same time last year, basically matching COVID lows.

Just a reminder to submit your papers to SoLE!!! It will be a great conference, with not-to-be-missed keynotes by Janet Currie, Kerwin Charles, and Jeff Smith! Avoid FOMO and submit!
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Happy Caturday from Big Gus and Archie who like to politely join me at the kitchen counter for an afternoon snack.

"What are you working on?" seems the most natural thing I would want to be asked. It's perfectly fine to say you're in between projects or caught up teaching. Another option is "What are you thinking about these days?" or "What sessions are you excited for?" without getting existential about fields

Hi Bluesky!

I'm excited to share my job market paper (for the 2025-26 market)!

It introduces a new extension of RDD where outcomes are entire distributions: Regression Discontinuity Design with Distributions (R3D).

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This has also been my experience with econ research and professionally related posts in particular. LinkedIn is surprisingly effective for getting likes, but conditional on a reply I do think the discussion is better here instead of the series of exact "Congratulations, [name]!" replies on LinkedIn

The letter is ready, thanks to all those who helped out! Starting to gather signature now, please consider signing (link at top of letter) & spread the word.

docs.google.com/document/d/1...

Graeter's is a really great brand out of Cincinnati (in my personal opinion, bested only by Skyline if you're in the area). Black Raspberry is probably my favorite of their flavors.

I do. It's part of "participation" which is 20% of the grade (doubled after Gen-AI ruined other assignments). If it's obvious a student is unprepared, I make sure I call on them the next class and take off points only for (1) multiple unexcused absences or (2) consistent unpreparedness.

I switched to cold calls as my approach to encouraging interaction with readings back in 2022 and it's been going surprisingly well. Since it happens is in-class, cold calls are quite AI-proof and the students, advanced undergrads and MBAs, actually seem to like it when I thought they'd hate it

PhD students working on projects in the crime & criminal justice space (empirical w/ a causal focus) - see below for a fun workshop in October! Will be a great opportunity for feedback and networking with other scholars.

Rent (musical) - Wikipedia

The musical kinds: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rent_(m...

There is some great discussion by one of my dissertation committee members, Jimmy Roberts who happens to be an excellent industrial organization economist, around claim #4.

Market concentration and market power, while sometimes correlated, are not the same thing.

Lexington, KY

Excited to announce the call for papers for the inaugural MidSouth Education Policy Workshop, October 16-17, in Lexington, KY!

Send us your abstracts on all things econ of ed & ed policy by 8/27. Grad students & early career folks especially welcome!

Info & link to submit here: bit.ly/44TdiGf

38 states have legalized sports betting, but little is known about the financial, social, and behavioral impacts.

@arnoldventures.bsky.social is committed to building the evidence base with our newest RFP.

LOIs due 9/15 and details here: www.arnoldventures.org/causal-resea...

As an amateur appreciator of urban amenities, I just arrived in Vancouver and the Canada Line train into the city is so nice. Easy to use, clean, and right on time.

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Next up, I’ll be presenting “Who Labels and What's Priced? Evidence from Third-Party ESG Assessments in the Municipal Bond Market” where we explore environmental, social, and sustainability labels using an unexpected information release in 2023 through Bloomberg

(papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....)

Discussant @ivantivanov.bsky.social (Chicago Fed) focuses on the growth of “alternative trading systems” (ATS) that dealers have increasingly used since about 2010. Some questions remain about how ATS interacts with reciprocity

First paper: Casey Dougal (FSU) tells us about muni dealer networks in “Dealer Quid Pro Quo in the Municipal Bond Market.” The paper finds, on average, dealers that trade back and forth (reciprocal trades) have low execution costs, but effect flips on the periphery

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

14th annual Municipal Finance Conference | Brookings

It’s Day 2 of the Brookings Muni Finance Conference (livestream: www.brookings.edu/events/14th-...)! I will be live tweeting a lot less today but the papers—including my own paper on green muni bonds—will hopefully be just as good as yesterday

Melissa Winkler (Crosswalk Labs) discusses the paper and starts by noting that it looks like markets are doing what they are supposed to. Coal’s decline led to decreased fiscal stability and markets priced that risk. She also brings up a lot of forward looking questions on future energy transitions

Last paper: “Navigating Structural Change: Evidence from Municipal Finances and Bond Market Pricing During the Coal Transition” presented by Marcelo Ochoa. The large decline in coal production following from the fracking boom in the US was priced in munis and led to local fiscal distress

Discussant Francesco Ruggieri (UChicago) zooms in on nonlinearities in the NYC property tax system: assessment growth caps interact interestingly with property tax relief. Dynamic welfare implications not obvious.

The basic idea: hurricane Sandy had a massive deleterious effect on property values in NYC for damaged properties, but property tax assessments adjust these values down for property taxes less, leading to increases in the taxable ratio (especially damaged properties ineligible for tax relief)

The final paper session of the day is also on climate risk and the energy transition. First up is “Rising Waters, Falling Taxes: The Impact of Hurricane Sandy on Property Tax Assessments in New York City” presented by Yilin Hou

Discussant Brian McCartan (Ceres) zeros in on *operational changes* that can be functions of climate events/disasters, and called this research filling in specific causal chains between climate risks and fiscal impacts underexplored. With limited resources, important work. How to inform adaptation?

But wildfires cause more than just direct damage! Luis Lopez (UIC) presents “Up in Smoke: The Impact of Wildfire Pollution on Healthcare Municipal Finance” documenting that the smoke from wildfires is priced in the bonds of hospitals and nursing homes (more negative profitability services)

This also inspired a good discussion among the crowd (and another great discussion from Erika Smull of Breckenridge). Lots of suggestions of other things that could be going on. Some surprise at lack of term structure adjustment or adaptation given very large price effects.

After congestion pricing, back to muni bonds. Woongchan Jeon presented “Pricing Climate Risks: Evidence from Wildfires and Municipal Bonds” arguing that wildfire risks are being increasingly price over time (following the Goldsmith-Pinkham et al. sea level rise paper)