Colin McKerracher

Always cumulative volume.

Exactly.

America is Exporting One of Its Worst Characteristics. It Has to Do With Cars. There are ways to fight back.

Some quotes in this great piece on how cars keep getting bigger, and what to do about it by @davidzipper.bsky.social

slate.com/business/202...

There will be battery manufacturing in Europe, including jobs, investment and all the good things that go with that.

Most of the batteries will be made by incumbent manufacturers. That's ok.

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Learning rate holding at 18%

The results from BloombergNEF's 2024 lithium-ion battery price survey are out. Lithium-ion battery pack prices dropped 20% from 2023 to a record low of $115 per kilowatt-hour. This is the largest decline observed in our survey since 2017. 🧵⬇️

China’s Electric-Car Push Drives Global Battery Price Declines Thanks for reading Hyperdrive, Bloomberg’s newsletter on the future of the auto world.

The annual BloombergNEF battery survey is out.
Quick hits: pack prices now $115 per kWh (and below $100 for cars in China)
Almost 2/3 of China's EV models are priced lower than their internal combustion equivalents
Great work @colinmckerracher.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

Already compiled @colinmckerracher.bsky.social charts on the latest battery price index into a slide. Bravo to Colin and team www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

Thanks Nat! Full credit goes to @evelinastoikou.bsky.social here.

Lithium-Ion Battery Pack Prices See Largest Drop Since 2017, Falling to $115 per Kilowatt-Hour: BloombergNEF | BloombergNEF New York, December 10, 2024 – Battery prices saw their biggest annual drop since 2017. Lithium-ion battery pack prices dropped 20% from 2023 to a record

What's next? Metal prices may rise as geopolitical tensions, tariffs, and stalled mining projects impact supply. However, higher LFP adoption, technology advances and competition will push battery prices down. For more see our public press release here: shorturl.at/TcVUc

China’s Electric-Car Push Drives Global Battery Price Declines Thanks for reading Hyperdrive, Bloomberg’s newsletter on the future of the auto world.

EVs are still more expensive than comparable combustion cars in many markets, but broader access to cheaper batteries will close the gap.

More on @colinmckerracher.bsky.social's piece on Bloomberg's Hyperdrive: shorturl.at/9AEFi

The march of declining battery prices continues. Always read @colinmckerracher.bsky.social! www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet....

Thanks Matthias. Yep, you're right, very different cars and different levels of tech in them. Still I think it's useful to point out just how extreme the pricing gap is because I don't think the electric version is opening up a totally new pool of buyers.

Bloomberg Expert Access: Colin McKerracher on the future of clean transport and energy storage | Insights | Bloomberg Professional Services In this episode of Bloomberg Expert Access, Colin McKerracher, Head of Clean Transport and Energy Storage at BloombergNEF, discusses the future of the transport system and advancements in lithium-ion ...

I'm very fortunate to work on some of the most interesting topics in energy and transport.

At BloombergNEF, our team of analysts is helping leading organizations navigate the transition to a low-carbon economy.

www.bloomberg.com/professional...

Good point. Looks like NYC is 239 traffic fatalities so far this year: www.nyc.gov/site/nypd/st...

I think there's also a speed normalization effect that carries over to other places though. Since moving to a 30km neighborhood I find myself driving slower on highways too.

Global EV sales in October:
Battery electrics: up 23%
Plug-in hybrids: up 65%

Combined market share in October: ~25%
Ending the year strong

Cutting Car Use Lightens Load in Push for Net-Zero Fleet New technologies like electric drivetrains often hog the attention in the quest to decarbonize transportation. But reducing the use of passenger cars in favor of other modes of transport, such as publ...

It's behind the BNEF paywall unfortunately, but clients can access it here:

Cutting Car Use Lightens Load in Push for Net-Zero Fleet
www.bnef.com/insights/34897

I'll try to get Jinghong on BlueSky to share more of her work!

Definitely. What a terrible decision.

Chart is from a report from my colleague Jinghong Lyu about how policymakers are tackling car dependency around the world.

Underappreciated part of the reason why road deaths are so much higher in the US than Europe

Cool page aggregating Canada EV adoption numbers from @nbrown14.bsky.social.
Quebec is crushing it.

github.com/NBrown140/tr...

A starter pack of my colleagues who are analysts at BloombergNEF. Batteries, electric vehicles, modelling, policy, energy economics, solar! Get your BNEF analysts on Bluesky here.

go.bsky.app/SRQaZno

From the archives: OPEC's 2015 World Oil Outlook.

It forecasts a total of 4.7 million battery electrics and 41 million plug-in hybrids on the road in 2040

The largest car market in the world, transformed in just 5 years.
cnevpost.com/2024/12/03/c...

key quote: “Behavioral barriers to adoption are much less of an issue than originally thought. When the economics are good, people buy EVs in large numbers.”

This Is What the World’s First All-EV Car Market Looks Like Norway is on the cusp of completing a transition away from combustion cars thanks to targeted incentives that made electrics an easy choice

Great piece on Norway's EV journey from my colleague Kari Lundgren

www.bloomberg.com/features/202...

Airborne Tire Wear Particles: A Critical Reanalysis of the Literature Reveals Emission Factors Lower than Expected Tires are a ubiquitous part of on-road transport systems serving as the critical connecting component at the interface of the motive power and road surface. While tires are essential to automobile fun...

Fascinating. Secondary literature (and presumably press reporting and social media) have been over-estimating the contribution of tyre wear to air pollution. Good news (though all that tyre rubber must still end up somewhere in the environment).
pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/...

Yep, pretty remarkable year. Full 2024 BNEF battery price survey results will be out in a few weeks.

Prices were up in 2022 when we expected them to be down, so it's not all in the same direction. We'll see what happens with the next raw material price change.

EVs and Clean Transport: 10 Things to Watch in 2024 At the beginning of each year, BloombergNEF’s transport team reflects on what has happened in the industry and gathers its thoughts on what to expect for the coming 12 months. These 10 things to watch...

This is the very short version. Full version available to BNEF clients here: www.bnef.com/insights/33099

EVs and Clean Transport: 10 Things to Watch in 2024 | BloombergNEF These 10 things to watch are a snapshot of what we think will be some of the most noteworthy developments in 2024.

Almost time to revisit and score this.
EV sales figure looking good, battery prices looking lower than expected.
about.bnef.com/blog/evs-and...