Dan Sally

Oddly enough, the market for US debt is partially due to a high trade imbalance. The less people sell to Americans, the less use they have for the dollar.

Why isn’t Moody’s downgrading the US credit rating front page news?

Reminder: if we cut all discretionary federal spending, the US would still run a deficit of $200B.

There’s no way out of this hole that doesn’t involve entitlement reforms and raising taxes

ratings.moodys.com/ratings-news...

The GOP's Biggest Opponent In 2026 -- Itself Georgia Governor Brian Kemp has announced he won’t run for Senate in 2026 - a surprising move given his strong statewide appeal and proven ability to win over independents.

LISTEN: @dansally.bsky.social and I unpack how Brian Kemp’s decision not to run for Senate reflects how the GOP’s biggest opponent in 2026 might not be the Democrats, but a primary system that seems to favor an increasingly extreme breed of Republican.

What if the new pope is Biden?

The Plan to Deny Both Parties a House Majority Podcast Episode · Middleweight Politics: Political Analysis for the Independent Voter · 05/05/2025 · 54m

This is, by far, one of the most innovative and exciting approaches I've seen in a while.

Links to the convo below:

Apple Podcasts: bit.ly/42YTqzi
Spotify: bit.ly/4iPSROb
YouTube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=5AdL...

The goal? Build a caucus big enough to deny both major parties the majority. This would require both major parties to negotiate on legislation, rather than the all-or-nothing stalemate we have today.

Austen saw the potential for the right kind of independent to gain traction in the deepest red and blue states and districts, and his organization is recruiting and funding independents in safe districts across the country to get more folks like Osborne elected to Congress.

Austen worked as Deputy Finance Director for Dan Osborne, an independent who turned what should have been a glide-path to reelection for Nebraska's Republican Senator Deb Fischer into a competitive election.

Independent National Coalition Deny the Duopoly, Empower the People. A Fulcrum Caucus Campaign to elect a slate of independents to the House of Representatives and deny both parties a majority.

Anyone interested in turning Congress into a governing body again should check this out: independentnationalcoalition.com/home

I had a conversation with the org's founder, Austen Campbell (links in reply), but here's the gist:

Thank you! Glad you enjoyed it.

Your comment also reveals what a unique place on the internet BlueSky is. Can't wait for the world to ruin it.

This is another reminder that we need to change the incentive structure to encourage politicians to campaign for the true majority of voters, as opposed to cobbling together a winnable coalition from the political fringes.

Ranked-choice voting in presidential elections is, by far, the best option.

Of course, the bigger point here is that the opinion of the majority doesn't matter as much as a smaller group of voters in a few key states. While a more left wing candidate might far better, it would come at the expense of an alienated political center.

These voters also appear in large enough numbers in battleground states where they're exceptionally valuable in national elections.

They also have a deep trust of parties and institutions, meaning a moderate, establishment candidate would be viewed with suspicion.

A bolder antiestablishment candidate such as AOC would actually fare better among these voters.

The persuadable voters lie in the populist camp - socially conservative, economically liberal voters who actually like Democratic economic policies but are turned off by their cultural messaging.

Most moderates are functional partisans, meaning they'll habitually vote for one of the two major parties - more out of fear of the opposing party than support for the other.

From an electoral sense, moderates aren't necessarily the most valuable.

Democrats have had a deep-rooted fear that nominating someone too far to the left would alienate moderates and cost them the White House, yet two victories by Donald Trump show us how hard moderate voters are to scare off.

Are Democrats Having a MAGA Moment? With only 562 days until the 2026 midterm elections, pundits have begun making predictions, and the Democrats' progressive wing has been very publicly asserting itself. In recent weeks, AOC and Bernie Sanders have held a series of high-profile rallies across the country, and activists have threatened primary challenges against centrist incumbents. Some see this as the bold shift the party needs to reconnect with young and working-class voters. Others worry it could push moderates away at a critical moment. In this episode, Dan and Shawn discuss how a progressive shift could help Democrats reclaim working-class voters lost to Trump, but also widen the ideological gulf between the two parties, fueling even greater polarization. (Photo credit: Gage Skidmore)

Democrats have long feared a left-wing candidate would scare away moderate voters. Is this fear misguided?

@thatshawng.bsky.social and I discuss. Links below and details in thread for your reading types....

Apple Podcasts: bit.ly/4jfOkFP
Spotify: bit.ly/42CFLxB
YouTube: bit.ly/4jIH458

The events of this week have solidified my belief that the best way to find out how much people hate you is to launch yourself into space.

It also wouldn't hurt to reform elections so organized, polarized factions can't take over one (or both) of the only two choices we have on the ballot.

The best option: change elections so we have more than two choices.

Proportional representation, and ranked-choice voting can help.

Whether you're on the left or right, the sort of whipsaw effect this will create is bad for the country.

We need reforms that will put the power ceded to the presidency over the past 70 years back in the hands of Congress.

With the economic forecasts as they are, the GOP could have set itself up for an even more left-leaning, activist Democrat to take the White House and use their expanded presidential powers to build an even more expansive federal government.

Generational change could be coming fast for Senate Democrats The ascendance of several young senators — and one big potential retirement — is reshaping power within the caucus.

The progressive wing of the Democratic Party seems more eager to primary their more center-left leadership, which could result in an even further ideological distance between the MAGA-dominated GOP.

www.politico.com/news/2025/04...

Trump's Trade War: When Bad Economics Makes Good Politics Podcast Episode · Middleweight Politics: Political Analysis for the Independent Voter · 04/14/2025 · 30m

Until then, we'll keep podcasting.

Apple Podcasts: bit.ly/4jBonR0
Spotify: bit.ly/3Rh6SsV
YouTube: bit.ly/4j69lCF

This highlights a weakness in our electoral system, where a handful of counties and voters can have such an outsized impact that the global financial order is nearly upended in response.

Per usual reforms such as ranked-choice voting and proportional representation can help.

So, an anti-China tariff policy helps in the states where the GOP needs votes the most, and declines in the stock market don't necessarily hurt.

This being said, a recession created by economic uncertainty & rising costs would.

And while automation has contributed to close to 90% of the loss of manufacturing jobs in the US over the past few decades, the areas where China's entrance into the WTO hurt most are electorally important counties in WI, MI, & PA.

Over 60% of Republican-held congressional districts now have median incomes below the national average.

With over 90% of stocks owned by the top 10% of households, Republican voters are the last to feel the impact of last week's decline in the stock market.

Trump's tariff policy is universally regarded as bad economically, but it may not be as terrible politically among the voters that matter to him.

@thatshawng.bsky.social of Independent Voter News
& I discussed this (links in reply) but here's the gist if you'd prefer it in 300 characters 🧵

So this isn't to say we should seek to strengthen democratic institutions or put checks on the power of those in office, but it does show us how healthy intraparty competition can help.