Matthew Barnfield

Legislators talk less about the future as they age | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja

NEW ARTICLE: @palesl.bsky.social, Vesa Koskimaa and I have an letter out in JOP, "Politicians talk less about the future as they age" doi.org/10.1086/739406 (1/10)

The panic over a male crisis in Britain is overblown But some manly problems are undeniable

So good by @duncanrobinson.bsky.social on British politics' (young) "male gaze":

www.economist.com/britain/2025...

The Professor Will See You Now: Island of strangers Lessons in political science. This week: island of strangers

Latest piece for the @thehousemag.bsky.social, on the island of strangers speech and similar. Also ft Bob Hawke.

www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...

Several recent studies have found that politicians aren't very good at estimating public support for policies. But we have little idea about whether politicians are good at knowing which issues are more important to voters. Our new publication has a first go at answering this question rdcu.be/eQGm4

Yesterday, we put out a report on the most important issues to voters.

We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from @yougov.co.uk).

But that doesn't tell the full story.

Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):

There is still time to register for today's (12:00) online Political Psychology seminar in which @stefaniereher.bsky.social is presenting work on public perceptions of politicians with mental health problems:

events.teams.microsoft.com/event/e51a98...

Political Psychology - Public perceptions of politicians with mental health problems in the UK | The Political Studies Association (PSA) ‘Public perceptions of politicians with mental health problems in the UK’ with Stefanie Reher (Strathclyde), with Rob Johns and Luca Bernardi 13 November – 12:00 to 13:00 In recent years, an…

*PSA EVENT* #Political #Psychology Seminar Series - Public perceptions of politicians with mental health problems in the UK with @stefaniereher.bsky.social, Rob Johns, @lbernardi.bsky.social by @psapolpsychology.bsky.social
📆 13 November
➡️ Full details and speakers

This Thursday 13 November (12:00 UK), @stefaniereher.bsky.social is presenting important work on public perceptions of politicians with mental health problems, in the third session of our autumn seminar series!

Register to attend here: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/e51a98...

If Labour want a fairer society, they must argue for it Labour must make the political argument: taxes are the critical downpayment we all pay to live in a fairer society.  It now seems all but certain that direct taxes will rise in the forthcoming Budget...

Breaking the tax pledge is the right call...and politically sulphurous. Reeves must argue, far more forcefully, that taxes are *the* essential downpayment we all pay for a fairer society.

Patrick Diamond and I wrote for @renewaljournal.bsky.social. Key points in 🧵 👇

renewal.org.uk/blog/if-labo...

There's still time to register - looking forward to seeing you around!

Our autumn seminar series continues tomorrow at midday, with
@klaramueller.bsky.social presenting important insights into causal inference in political psychology research.

Register to attend: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/5edb84...

Sage Journals: Discover world-class research Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.

Is it rational to expect to win elections? @mbarnfield.bsky.social argues so-called "wishful thinking" about election outcomes is part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. Read OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/VwihdOi

@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com

Keir Starmer needs to give voters short-term gain to persuade them he can deliver long-term renewal Keir Starmer says painful decisions are needed now to fix the country for the future. But voters may not stick around to find out if he’s right.

This is interesting from @mbarnfield.bsky.social for @theconversation.com - theconversation.com/keir-starmer.... #labour

Unlikely, because we ask them how they voted, and we use the responses to that!

It's a "nationally representative" sample with "party affiliation" from Prolific, which in practice means they implement a quota for party ID based on a YouGov poll conducted prior to the 2024 election. So we get a lot of Labour voters because the polls then had them at >40%.

Interestingly, nothing with left-right or with redistribution preferences. There are party differences though: Reform's 2024 voters are more focused on the short term and less "future-orientated" than Labour's 2024 voters.

“I want it now, I want it now
Not the promises of what tomorrow brings”

Impatient to read more from the excellent research here from @mbarnfield.bsky.social @karlpike.bsky.social and @philipjcowley.bsky.social - wonderful colleagues from
@qmulsse.bsky.social

Keir Starmer needs to give voters short-term gain to persuade them he can deliver long-term renewal Keir Starmer says painful decisions are needed now to fix the country for the future. But voters may not stick around to find out if he’s right.

My write-up for The Conversation on how a strategy of "short-term pain for long-term gain" could be losing the government support from the more short-term-focused of its voters:

theconversation.com/keir-starmer...

Trailed in the FT this morning (www.ft.com/content/e984...)

Keir Starmer needs to give voters short-term gain to persuade them he can deliver long-term renewal Keir Starmer says painful decisions are needed now to fix the country for the future. But voters may not stick around to find out if he’s right.

This is definitely not a massive leap! We do find that the people who "focus on the short term" also tend overwhelmingly to be people who think the country is "heading in the wrong direction":

theconversation.com/keir-starmer...

The always clever @mbarnfield.bsky.social sharing some excellent research today.

This is really interesting by Matthew Barnfield and colleagues. Our research shows Labour is losing more support among its 2024 voters who feel financially insecure, which - together - suggests voters leaving Labour cant *afford* to wait for ‘jam tomorrow’.

Labour sheds support from impatient Britons Research shows party losing voters who want results now, with women more likely to prioritise short-term gains

Great to speak to @greenmirandahere.bsky.social for today's FT Inside Politics about the latest finding from our politics of (im)patience project, w/ @karlpike.bsky.social and @philipjcowley.bsky.social.

www.ft.com/content/e984...

Latest from our politics of impatience project - some excellent analysis by @mbarnfield.bsky.social showing Labour is losing the jam today voters.

Labour sheds support from impatient Britons: on.ft.com/48EaX4h

Labour sheds support from impatient Britons Research shows party losing voters who want results now, with women more likely to prioritise short-term gains

Voters who think the least about the 'long term' are the most likely to have turned on the government.

Important research by my fantastic colleagues @mbarnfield.bsky.social , @philipjcowley.bsky.social and @karlpike.bsky.social cited in Inside Politics.

www.ft.com/content/e984...

After a great first session today, our @psapolpsychology.bsky.social autumn seminar series continues next week with what promises to be a fascinating talk by @klaramueller.bsky.social!

Sign up here: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/5edb84...

👇Find out more about the #Political #Psychology Autumn seminar series 👇taking place online 12.00 - 13.00 on
📆16 Oct 📆23 Oct 📆13 Nov 📆4 Dec

Political Psychology - The Bright and Dark Sides: Personality Traits and Party Members’ Campaign Activity | The Political Studies Association (PSA) ‘The Bright and Dark Sides: Personality Traits and Party Members’ Campaign Activity’ with Stavroula Chrona (Sussex), with Tim Bale and Paul Webb 16 October – 12:00 to 13:00 We offer a novel…

*PSA EVENT* #Political #Psychology Seminar Series - The Bright and Dark Sides: Personality Traits & Party Members’ Campaign Activity, organised by @psapolpsychology.bsky.social
📆 16 Oct 📆 23 Oct 📆 13 Nov 📆 4 Dec
➡️ Full details and speakers

Our autumn online seminar series gets started in two days' time, with a fascinating presentation on the personalities of UK party members - work co-authored by Stavroula Chrona, @timbale.bsky.social and Paul Webb.

For more info, and to register: www.psa.ac.uk/specialist-g....

Our autumn seminar series starts next Thursday 16th October at 12:00!

Stavroula Chrona (profiles.sussex.ac.uk/p226073-stav...) will give a fascinating presentation on the personality traits of UK political party members.

More info on the series and sign-up links here: www.psa.ac.uk/specialist-g...

Another chance to see me profess my love (and the limits) of charts to change minds. Thanks @psapolpsychology.bsky.social for hosting! And check out the whole autumn series which looks excellent.