Matthew Barnfield

The Professor Will See You Now: dunno There are two cartoons, seen when much younger, which I think of often.

Latest piece for the @thehousemag.bsky.social on the Don't Knows - who are more likely to be women.

www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...

Congrats!

Congrats!

Love that there is now a bonus stage to accessing a journal article – before logging in via my institution using 2FA, finding my way back to the article from the homepage after doing so, and requesting to view the pdf twice – of verifying that I am in fact a human being capable of clicking a mouse.

Thanks Marta!

Reform has been warned that defecting Tories will damage its brand – and the first evidence is in Conservative voters have become more positive about Reform since the defections – but some Reform voters have been turned off.

My thoughts on what is (and isn't) at risk for Reform in becoming "Tory Party 2.0", given recent polling, the dynamics of bloc politics, and the party's popularity with 2024 non-voters: theconversation.com/reform-has-b...

Sage Journals: Discover world-class research Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.

Is it rational to expect to win elections? @mbarnfield.bsky.social argues so-called "wishful thinking" about election outcomes is part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. Read OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/04Lq36y

@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com

How to deal with defecting MPs Voters should be able to force parliamentarians who change parties to face the electorate

Thoughts in the FT on why I don't like the idea of an automatic by election if an MP changes party - but understand why some people do, along with a possible compromise...

How to deal with defecting MPs - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... via @FT

Very pleased to see this out! Karl's conception of centrism as a structure for political action is really compelling

'Avoiding the iceberg' - LabourList Labour’s polling crisis isn’t about Reform voters but losing progressives. To avoid electoral collapse, the party must clarify its values and unite its bloc.

Good to see Labour politicians talking about blocs!

labourlist.org/2026/01/avoi...

If you want to know more, you can read our article introducing the idea in Britain here: academic.oup.com/pa/article/7...

Also Green and Miori's excellent work here: journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...

As have I!

Absolutely! I have been super reliant on Marta's excellent work

Blocs really are all the rage now huh.

I would add that the work of @martamiori.bsky.social, @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and other ECRs has also gone a long way to making that happen!

We have just published a paper showing that, while informing (German) people about public opinion on climate change increases their perceptions of public support for policy action, it doesn't really increase how much they support it themselves.

doi.org/10.1016/j.je...

TL;DR: see Joe's thread.

Why men should really be reading more fiction Novels require a kind of attention that the modern world is steadily eroding

Have to wonder how many of the “literary men” whose loss is lamented in this piece would have been labelled “performative males” in 2025.

Here's to not mocking men for reading in 2026.

www.ft.com/content/da33...

State capacity is the issue of the age The Labour Party and its rivals agree on much about what is wrong with government

This article deserves all the praise it's getting, despite its egregious reference to the fish disco as proof of something or other.

Particularly worth looking up @pollymackenzie.bsky.social stack on the misuse of "levers" as a metaphor...

www.economist.com/britain/2026...

Academic urban legends - Ole Bjørn Rekdal, 2014 Many of the messages presented in respectable scientific publications are, in fact, based on various forms of rumors. Some of these rumors appear so frequently,...

Reminded me of this paper which I highly recommend checking out journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Consolidation, Not Conversion: Understanding Wales’s Ongoing Realignment Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.

🚨 NEW BLOG

Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why?

@jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs!

blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

Labour’s Mr Micawber politics The government hopes that ‘something will turn up’ to produce growth, but curbing immigration will only harm the economy

"Labour’s... “red lines”—on reducing migration, on not raising taxes, and on not joining the EU's customs union... are still holding up. But the other “red line”... on graphs showing how many people intend to vote for Labour? Not so much."

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/718...

The ten most surprising facts from the 2024 election revealed Voters cared a lot less about tax than you might think.

10 nuggets from the new "British General Election of 2024" book, courtesy of @timbale.bsky.social

theconversation.com/the-ten-most...

Considering Reform’s Potential ‘Ceiling’ - Nuffield Politics Research Centre

Are Reform at their ceiling?

@martamiori.bsky.social and I explored @britishelectionstudy.com data and found a high % of May 2025 Con voters could switch.

We think it depends on intensity of preference and right-bloc party viability.

Link here:

politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/cons...

Britain’s Quiet Electoral Earthquake - Nuffield Politics Research Centre

In this short piece (also in PSA Insights this issue), @martamiori.bsky.social and I explain the bloc structure in what’s happening in GB electoral politics and why this matters. Nice and simple summary here:

politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/brit...

Pushing policy to new and never-before-seen boundaries of craziness. London is a great city! Not as good as Manchester, sure, but you can't have it all. That some Americans have convinced themselves that it is a dangerous hellscape is bizarre.

Is it rational to expect to win elections? @mbarnfield.bsky.social argues so-called "wishful thinking" about election outcomes is part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. Read OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/VudD2ir

@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com

Personal news! 📣

I'm very happy to share that today I've joined @dec-gr.bsky.social as a postdoc to work on the @tact-forsed.bsky.social project, studying conspiracy beliefs and democratic backsliding across Europe.

Grateful to @galais.bsky.social and @mguinjoan.bsky.social for the opportunity!

"This" and "government"?

Or "a" and "future"?

Job opportunity: Lecturer in British and Comparative Politics The UCL Department of Political Science and Constitution Unit are seeking to appoint a Lecturer in British and Comparative Politics. The successful candidate will join the senior team at the Unit.

Join and help to lead the Constitution Unit!

@uclspp.bsky.social is looking for a Lecturer in British and Comparative Politics who will also join our senior team and contribute to our research and impact activities.

Applicants must have, or be near to finishing, a PhD.

Apply 👇

A short piece for Renewal on how the government's failure to present a consistent political argument is, despite its "long-termist" rhetoric, about not being orientated towards a political vision for the future.

Tune in to episode 103 of me *waving wildly at charts about charts* At least I aspire to never be accused of being boring!

NEW! How should Labour respond to the two key issues to voters of the economy and immigration and what are the electoral stakes this week of the budget?

Read on for our answer...

@nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social