@404notfound404.bsky.social
Superforecaster® with Good Judgment Inc
New question on @metaculus.bsky.social Despite political turmoil, major protests in France are relatively unlikely during the last months of 2026. Demonstrations will happen, but the Ministry of Interior rarely certifies a turnout of 600k+ participants
www.metaculus.com/questions/40...
January 1, 2024: a very specific iteration of the Mickey Mouse character entered the public domain, and it seemed like a huge deal. Now, the release of Sora 2 makes it look like eons have passed since then, as OpenAI has gone completely berserk on copyright laws
05.10.2025 18:54 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
If anyone builds it, does everybody die? And, most importantly, what would be the expected human cost, in lives, of banning advanced AI development?
24.09.2025 15:47 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
There's a sprawling mess of AI benchmarks and so little signal is coming out of them. We need a benchmark of AI benchmarks to identify which are useful, which are worthless, and those that are complete BS
25.08.2025 18:34 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
An image of people gathered around a glowing crystal ball emitting black smoke in St. Peter's Square, Vatican City, while white smoke rises from a chimney above the Sistine Chapel in the background.
"Once every death of a Pope" is an Italian saying to describe the rarest events. Conclaves are infrequent, cardinals unknown, and election odds of the Papabili given by obscure Vaticanist pundits. Prevost's "unexpected" election isn't surprising: Papal forecasts are mostly vibes.
09.05.2025 15:58 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Italy spent €650 million on a migrant detention center in Albania that's now... a dog shelter? 🐶 My latest Substack post dives into this spectacular failure of populist immigration policy.
404futurenotfound.substack.com/p/italys-650...
Excited to continue with the RAND Forecasting Initiative Pro Team in 2025! Grateful for the 2024 recognition and eager to dive into another year of strengthening evidence-based decisions through forecasting
www.randforecastinginitiative.org/rfi-blog/bes...
Sharing my forecasts for @astralcodexten.com.web.brid.gy's ACX 2025 Prediction Contest, hosted by @metaculus.bsky.social. Interested to hear your thoughts and predictions.
31.01.2025 17:03 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
"Every decision that we make is a forecast. Superforecasting is a process to get to the best possible forecast and therefore to get to the best possible decision." Warren Hatch, CEO of Good Judgment on the 3 Takeaways podcast
09.01.2025 16:55 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
