David Shor

I asked this question because I personally am estranged from one of my parents and was curious how common it was - I was surprised by the steep age trend and thought other people might find it interesting too.

Young voters are now 3x as likely to report having been estranged from their parents for an extended period of time than voters over the age of 65.

Parental estrangement is uncorrelated with partisanship and is concentrated among low-turnout independents.

Amazon/Microsoft/Google/Apple all have very high net favs, Nvidia is unknown, Tesla is unpopular, Meta is somewhere in between

"Big tech companies" in general underperform the average of specific tech companies and are narrowly underwater - but still much more popular than both political parties

The issue landscape has changed dramatically over the last year - Democrats successfully have simultaneously raised the salience and expanded our trust advantage on our best issue (healthcare) *and* dramatically improved our trust advantage on the cost of living and the economy

As far as I know not much has been written about the behind the scenes stuff on HR 1, but this post from Bruenig (who definitely is not a moderate!!!) on Childcare gets at a lot of the same dynamics.

www.peoplespolicyproject.org/2022/04/19/t...

Similarly the big reason we never got a vote on Puerto Rican statehood was objections from the squad and from Velázquez.

Politics is unfortunately a super opaque industry, it's easy to get sucked into the kayfabe narratives that get pushed to the base to suck money out of them.

That's the narrative everyone wants to tell.

The reality is that the bill was an unworkable mess and was super weak on redistricting because a bunch of representatives in very blue seats were against it.

David Shor: "[Zohran Mamdani] ran the most economically focused campaign of any politician that I can remember maybe since Barack Obama in 2012." #crookedcon2025

David Shor on X: "@DCCyclone @brianbeutler @mattyglesias There was a serious and gross insider/outsider vibe where people in the know knew it wouldn’t pass almost immediately while the donor class was cynically strung along for money for a year. I don’t know how anyone who was close to the process could not think mistakes were made." / X @DCCyclone @brianbeutler @mattyglesias There was a serious and gross insider/outsider vibe where people in the know knew it wouldn’t pass almost immediately while the donor class was cynically strung along for money for a year. I don’t know how anyone who was close to the process could not think mistakes were made.

That’s what irks me so much - I got to see it at least somewhat close up and there was more dishonesty at every level of the process than anything else I’ve seen in my entire career x.com/davidshor/st...

A clean bill probably would have failed too, we'll never know - but we are definitely never going to get fair maps if we totally refuse to acknowledge what actually happened.

There was a decision made behind closed doors to make bold faced lies about the impact of voting access laws rather than focus on redistricting because there was a lot of private opposition to strong partisan fairness standards for maps from the CBC

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I've had dozens of tweets arguing with Republicans about gerrymandering so far this year - how many do you think I should have done instead?

x.com/search?q=fro...

Ali Mortell on X: ".@ZohranKMamdani ran a phenomenal, authentic campaign focused on affordability. Blue Rose Research is proud to have partnered with @MiddleSeatCo on ad testing and to support their work in helping build the momentum for a more affordable New York. LFG 🌹 https://t.co/0HLenkSSrv" / X .@ZohranKMamdani ran a phenomenal, authentic campaign focused on affordability. Blue Rose Research is proud to have partnered with @MiddleSeatCo on ad testing and to support their work in helping build the momentum for a more affordable New York. LFG 🌹 https://t.co/0HLenkSSrv

Zohran's relentless disciplined campaign was truly impressive - he brought every message/issue back to the cost of living and built a model for what bringing attention to a positive affordability message can look like

Proud to have Blue Rose do ad testing for the Zohran IE!

x.com/alimortell/s...

This paper gets at a lot of this cces.gov.harvard.edu/sites/g/file...

Both graphs are restricted non-white people

Hard to know exactly - some combination of TikTok and Covid changing people’s news consumption to be way more online (discords, WhatsApp groups, etc).

I think it’s probably related to the decline among immigrants we’re seeing everywhere too - there’s been a really fundamental change in the information ecosystem of people who don’t follow politics closely bsky.app/profile/davi...

This Norway paper is pretty good for showing whats going on - when I looked through old Canada polling I saw a similar story too.

The real outlier is Germany, where its young women moving left rather than young men moving right.

bsky.app/profile/rube...

How Britain voted in the 2024 general election | YouGov Using a sample of over 35,000 voters, YouGov looks at how voters voted at the 2024 election across factors like age, gender, class, education, income, work status, housing tenure and their vote at pas...

I’m using YouGov’s 35k sample post election survey from this yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

If you add all the left and right wing parties together the age trend is pretty clear as day

If you look at the California high school mock election data (take with the biggest grain of salt you can imagine), you see that the cohort of kids who would have millennial parents seem to be way more Democratic

I don’t think this is the main story, but I think some of it is just that our parents were boomers and their parents were gen x.

People under 25 are 7% less likely to say their parents were Democrats than 30 year olds.

I think the Gelman model is empirically right but doesn't explain as large a fraction of cohort effects as people think.

Boomers were left wing in every country, Gen X was right wing in every country, millennials were left wing in every country, and now Zoomers are trending right everywhere too.

In general the two biggest predictors of partisanship right now are socioeconomic status and political engagement.

Those two things are also the biggest predictors of answering a political survey. It's a huge issue.

This is a good thread that someone on my team did that makes the case with public data bsky.app/profile/davi...

The "Harris did better than polls suggested among old voters and worse with young voters" comes through pretty clearly if you look at precinct data.

The basic issue is that the partisan gap between highly engaged and highly disengaged young voters went up *a lot* from 2020 to 2024

2024 United Kingdom general election - Wikipedia

It’s the voter demographic section here from the post election mega YouGov poll weighted to the election results. This is comparing Labour+LibDem+Green+SNP vs Tory + Brexit. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Un...

Shows up in polling data too bsky.app/profile/davi...

YouTube video by PBS NewsHour WATCH LIVE: The 2025 Hutchins Forum

Video of this year's Harvard Hutchins Center forum: What went wrong? What's next? Thoughtful and provocative conversation. Jonathan Capehart, Astead Herndon, Sherrilyn Ifill, David Shor, Laurence Tribe, Charlene Hunter-Gault www.youtube.com/watch?v=ld4k...