David Shor

Shows up in individual level data too!

bsky.app/profile/davi...

My tweet did not talk about polls at all.

I did an all left vs all right comparison and saw the same thing in the UK - I think the same is true in Canada from eyeballing but haven't checked too closely

Political science as a discipline has a lot to answer for: It has been clear this has been happening for the last decade but many prominent academics ignored it because of a combo of shoddy empirical work and it not fitting neatly into then trendy racial-conflict centric theories of politics

Non-white voters are rapidly trending toward right wing parties in Canada, the UK, and potentially other countries as well as the US.

www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

One fun graph for pride: the single strongest demographic predictor I’ve found so far for predicting Cuomo vote share is what fraction of registered voters in the precinct identify as heterosexual

The mayor race on Tuesday saw massive turnout differentials - turnout in @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social’sbstrongest precincts was up ~30% while turnout in Cuomo’s best districts were ~ flat.

These are big differences - essentially two different elections that happened to fall on the same day.

This was the point of this tweet, right.

Traditionally there's been a quant/qual split on ad length in Democratic politics, with [usually more moderate] quants pushing for shorter 15 second ads and [usually more progressive] qual folks pushing for 60 second ads.

Great to see @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social sided with the nerds!

Great aspect of the public matching system!

Political digital operations are warped enormously by engagement taylorism that pushes them to cater their message and brand to the donor base.

It's better to have a message that appeals to normal people even when it means you raise less money!

Zohran raised a lot less money than you'd expect given his vote share and educated coalition - he barely outraised Lander!

His prioritization of persuasion over fundraising in his public facing communication was extremely unusual and more Democrats should follow his lead!

I've been a fan of his for a long time.

Everybody overestimates the extent to which these twitter factional beefs extend to campaign world

This was the biggest story of the 2024 election - the single most effective effective Harris ad of the campaign was when she promised to lower costs by building more housing and taking on landlords!

bsky.app/profile/davi...

YouTube video by Zohran Mamdani for NYC NYC is Suffering from Halalflation

@zohrankmamdani.bsky.social is a great example of how far you can go if you genuinely center your campaign in an engaging way around the issue that voters overwhelmingly say in surveys they care the most about

www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyL4...

Big picture, the basis of the Grumbach/Boinica work is that the two-way party registration of 2024 non-voters is ~61%.

But this is based on registrations that are often decades old.

Politics has changed a lot since then: Dems won ~50% of them in 2016 and 44% of them in 2020.

3) Both posts relied heavily on CES data.

There were large partisan gaps wrt engagement concentrated among young people, but the CES didn't meaningfully weight on political engagement.

This led to both overestimates of youth/non-voter support and weird youth by gender numbers.

2) Bonica/Grumbach assume that "at most 10%" of non-voter registered Democrats supported Trump.

Our best estimate from survey data is that number was actually ~32%, consistent with administrative and ecological evidence showing this group is rapidly becoming more Republican.

1) It's improper to analyze party registration data without taking into account registration date.

Analyzing voter file data both cross-sectionally and within-person, it's clear that non-voters have become much more Republican in recent years relative to voters

Excited to signal boost @shiraamitchell.bsky.social and @ccgilroy.bsky.social 's response to the @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social and Caroline Soler's critiques of our estimates of Harris support among non-voters and youth voters.

Our main points:

Great to see @gallego.senate.gov speak common sense on this issue too

Really great to see @rokhanna.bsky.social stand up for tracking - removing advanced classes from schools is literally the single most unpopular policy we've ever polled

If you're in the Bay Area tomorrow and want to learn more about ways to apply AI skills toward progressive change and fighting Trump, come check us out on Tuesday May 13th!

lu.ma/dugt12v6

Conservatives are gaining most among immigrants and visible minorities this election. However, this could also be a sign of the ecological fallacy. @sharonk.bsky.social shared this piece on the subject schoolofcities.github.io/gta-immigrat...

We convert into two way for everything

But to be clear there's a lot to study and a lot of uncertainty about how important this is and I don't want to pretend there isn't - that's a hard thing to communicate

Like - they had 3-5x as many impressions as us on TikTok, our survey experiments indicate in a lab their content was 2-3x more effective per impression, it went from ~0 to the dominant source of news for young people, cross-sectional regression and panel data directionally agree

I’m very confident in the sign given the information available (part of which is ~thousands of RCTs we’ve done of social media videos on both sides), reasonable people can disagree over the magnitude.

Obviously you can never be sure of basically any causal relationship - but I think it's a good idea to talk about something when you're 90% sure it's real rather than wait until you're 99.99% sure.

There's some work by others that uses multi-year panel data which provides a cleaner identification strategy that also seems to link TikTok usage to radicalization that's due to be published soon.