David Shor

And some pretty striking discrepancies of how Denmark residents view the US vs China and Russia.

Some fun tidbits here to see how much more likely Danish people are to say they think their country is heading in the right direction and that they trust the media, though some similar pessimistic economic outlooks we’re seeing here.

New poll of Denmark residents (N=1,200; Jan 27–Feb 2).

Trump’s Greenland push has basically unified the entire country against him.

No huge surprise, but a -94 approval rating amongst Danes is pretty impressive.

One of the insights of @davidshor.bsky.social is that a party or movement can take an unpopular issue and run with it and make it popular among its own voters, getting from 15% support to 45% support, it just can't get over 50% that way. (This is more or less happening re Venezuela.)

Do you support or oppose new AI data centers being built in your local community?

31% support, 44% oppose

Would you support or oppose new data centers if they lowered your property taxes by 10%?

59% support 18% oppose

We recently tested ~ a dozen public statements from a diverse set of Democratic elected officials on the murder of Renee Good and this was the top testing one

People don’t have a good sense for how much age varies geographically - the red areas are super old

When you ask Americans whether they are optimistic or pessimistic about AI, optimism beats pessimism by ~5 points.

The primary fault lines are age, gender, and race - young people, men, and racial minorities are the most optimistic about AI.

N=30,900 , fielded 12/1 to 12/10

I’m collecting more data on gender of first child to address this - give me a couple weeks and I’ll update

I omitted no kids from both regressions, yeah.

But just started collecting some more data so should be able to check soon.

I just started collecting gender of first child so will be fun to see!

Ah, I see what you’re saying. I can ask a bunch of people what the gender of their first child was and report back in a bit.

VoteWithMe Can Help You Find Your Team — Vote Captain First up in our series on tech tools for Vote Captains, we talk to the VoteWithMe team! VoteWithMe is an app that helps identify friends and contacts that could use an extra push to vote. Sarah Sull...

Other little known lore is that I made a relational organizing app called VoteWithMe that was used by hundreds of thousands of people!

Tons of critics lazily assuming I know nothing about canvassing.

www.votecaptain.org/blog/2018/10...

I'm collecting more data so I can restrict to folks with one kid but this is what I get when I restrict to 1+2

bsky.app/profile/davi...

It's just very funny to be lectured on the hyper specific niche that I spent a decade in by people who have only consumed pro-canvassing propaganda that *I personally was involved in helping craft*

What I find annoying about the push-back I've gotten on this is that I have personally organized and analyzed multiple million-person-plus canvassing experiments as part of my job.

bsky.app/profile/davi...

Just 1 is noisier ofc but broadly looks similar

This is what you get when you restrict to 1-2 kids

I think the main thing we have to add is just scale (this was based on ~22k folks with biological kids), but I'm going to collect ~5x as much data so it'll be fun to see what we find.

Agree the effects are small either way.

This was not very clear - it's like, what's the effect of going from two daughters to two daughters and one son or the reverse

bsky.app/profile/davi...

the actual regressions are
1) vote ~ has_daughter + # kids + other stuff
2) vote ~ has_son + # kids + other stuff

So the base case is going from having children of all one gender and then moving to having one child of the other gender.

Not totally sure, my vibe from playing with it a bit is that it's more of a have at least one thing rather than female share per se, but I'm collecting more data

Because child gender is ~ random, we can estimate the causal impact of being a "boy mom" vs "girl mom" by conditioning on # of kids.

Mothers with sons are ~3% more Republican, while mothers with daughters are ~4% more Democratic.

Child gender has ~ zero effect on fathers.

Gotta watch the full interview but yes it’s not a free lunch

This from @davidshor.bsky.social made me LOL. "having wealthy people or economists be mad at you is a feature, not a bug" .... anyway, it's a very interesting conversation I recommend it.

The electorate's intuitions around fairness and economic redistribution in a post-AGI world are quite left-wing - if democracy is preserved the electorate will not defer to Nvidia stock holders and tolerate being part of the "permanent underclass"

There is a hunger from the public for radicalism on costs - even policies like wide-ranging price and rent controls poll well nationally right now.

That doesn't mean Democrats should embrace unworkable policies, but they have to meet the moment and embrace boldness on costs

The #1 reason voters say that costs are too high is because they believe that politicians on both sides don't understand what life is like for regular people and more interested in catering to their own party's bases and special interests than doing what it takes to cut costs