@davidshor.bsky.social
Head of Data Science at Blue Rose Research, based in NYC, originally from Miami. I try to elect Democrats. Views are my own. he/him🌹
Both graphs are restricted non-white people
16.09.2025 04:43 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Hard to know exactly - some combination of TikTok and Covid changing people’s news consumption to be way more online (discords, WhatsApp groups, etc).
15.09.2025 18:15 — 👍 19 🔁 6 💬 2 📌 2I think it’s probably related to the decline among immigrants we’re seeing everywhere too - there’s been a really fundamental change in the information ecosystem of people who don’t follow politics closely bsky.app/profile/davi...
15.09.2025 18:06 — 👍 8 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 1This Norway paper is pretty good for showing whats going on - when I looked through old Canada polling I saw a similar story too.
The real outlier is Germany, where its young women moving left rather than young men moving right.
bsky.app/profile/rube...
I’m using YouGov’s 35k sample post election survey from this yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
15.09.2025 18:01 — 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 2 📌 0
If you add all the left and right wing parties together the age trend is pretty clear as day
15.09.2025 17:51 — 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 2 📌 0
If you look at the California high school mock election data (take with the biggest grain of salt you can imagine), you see that the cohort of kids who would have millennial parents seem to be way more Democratic
15.09.2025 17:49 — 👍 18 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 1I don’t think this is the main story, but I think some of it is just that our parents were boomers and their parents were gen x.
People under 25 are 7% less likely to say their parents were Democrats than 30 year olds.
I think the Gelman model is empirically right but doesn't explain as large a fraction of cohort effects as people think.
Boomers were left wing in every country, Gen X was right wing in every country, millennials were left wing in every country, and now Zoomers are trending right everywhere too.
In general the two biggest predictors of partisanship right now are socioeconomic status and political engagement.
Those two things are also the biggest predictors of answering a political survey. It's a huge issue.
This is a good thread that someone on my team did that makes the case with public data bsky.app/profile/davi...
15.09.2025 17:27 — 👍 8 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
The "Harris did better than polls suggested among old voters and worse with young voters" comes through pretty clearly if you look at precinct data.
The basic issue is that the partisan gap between highly engaged and highly disengaged young voters went up *a lot* from 2020 to 2024
It’s the voter demographic section here from the post election mega YouGov poll weighted to the election results. This is comparing Labour+LibDem+Green+SNP vs Tory + Brexit. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Un...
25.08.2025 13:44 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0Shows up in polling data too bsky.app/profile/davi...
25.08.2025 00:39 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
Video of this year's Harvard Hutchins Center forum: What went wrong? What's next? Thoughtful and provocative conversation. Jonathan Capehart, Astead Herndon, Sherrilyn Ifill, David Shor, Laurence Tribe, Charlene Hunter-Gault www.youtube.com/watch?v=ld4k...
24.08.2025 15:50 — 👍 3 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
Coming back to this: x.com/zacharydonni...
21.08.2025 13:33 — 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0Shows up in individual level data too!
bsky.app/profile/davi...
My tweet did not talk about polls at all.
16.07.2025 14:00 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
I did an all left vs all right comparison and saw the same thing in the UK - I think the same is true in Canada from eyeballing but haven't checked too closely
12.07.2025 16:58 — 👍 3 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 2Political science as a discipline has a lot to answer for: It has been clear this has been happening for the last decade but many prominent academics ignored it because of a combo of shoddy empirical work and it not fitting neatly into then trendy racial-conflict centric theories of politics
12.07.2025 16:25 — 👍 40 🔁 4 💬 4 📌 1
Non-white voters are rapidly trending toward right wing parties in Canada, the UK, and potentially other countries as well as the US.
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
One fun graph for pride: the single strongest demographic predictor I’ve found so far for predicting Cuomo vote share is what fraction of registered voters in the precinct identify as heterosexual
26.06.2025 22:48 — 👍 345 🔁 40 💬 8 📌 5
The mayor race on Tuesday saw massive turnout differentials - turnout in @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social’sbstrongest precincts was up ~30% while turnout in Cuomo’s best districts were ~ flat.
These are big differences - essentially two different elections that happened to fall on the same day.
This was the point of this tweet, right.
26.06.2025 14:41 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Traditionally there's been a quant/qual split on ad length in Democratic politics, with [usually more moderate] quants pushing for shorter 15 second ads and [usually more progressive] qual folks pushing for 60 second ads.
Great to see @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social sided with the nerds!
Great aspect of the public matching system!
25.06.2025 22:43 — 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Political digital operations are warped enormously by engagement taylorism that pushes them to cater their message and brand to the donor base.
It's better to have a message that appeals to normal people even when it means you raise less money!
Zohran raised a lot less money than you'd expect given his vote share and educated coalition - he barely outraised Lander!
His prioritization of persuasion over fundraising in his public facing communication was extremely unusual and more Democrats should follow his lead!
I've been a fan of his for a long time.
Everybody overestimates the extent to which these twitter factional beefs extend to campaign world
This was the biggest story of the 2024 election - the single most effective effective Harris ad of the campaign was when she promised to lower costs by building more housing and taking on landlords!
bsky.app/profile/davi...
