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@thomas-clay.bsky.social

56 Followers  |  101 Following  |  30 Posts  |  Joined: 12.11.2024  |  1.6728

Latest posts by thomas-clay.bsky.social on Bluesky

I think this was an especially good one.

29.09.2025 20:00 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I can tell you chardonnay is definitely not elite-coded in Boulder, CO. The local wine store guy was most excited to talk about an Australian who just moved here, was upset at not being able to find hard ginger beer, and started making it himself.

29.09.2025 15:48 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Would need to find a clergyman who spoke Latin

22.09.2025 00:22 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Richard Feynman's appearance was pretty good though

20.09.2025 22:58 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Need to subscribe to the Criterion Collection!

17.09.2025 01:33 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

He likened Trump to Hitler in 2016. So the calculation definitely changed after Trump won.

14.09.2025 14:00 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Isn't AI data center capex a surprisingly large share of GDP growth at the moment?

21.08.2025 01:00 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I'm a big fan. It's far from a weeknight cookbook, but I'll say I have had a great result making the multi day pastilla from Nopi for a special event (recipe is also on his website).

27.07.2025 15:04 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I actually think Plenty More is better.

27.07.2025 11:33 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

xAI wasn't formed until 2025, but this record seems shaky.

22.07.2025 01:13 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I admit I was surprised to learn from @edwardluce.bsky.social's lunch with Bannon that he has for years been a teetotaler.

05.07.2025 01:17 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

This was excellent

04.07.2025 21:13 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

The river is not too warm to cool the reactors. Nuclear plants are sometimes taken offline during heat waves with the goal of protecting heat sensitive plant or animal life downstream, since they add incremental heat. Warmer water has no impact on the safety or efficacy of cooling nuclear reactors.

22.06.2025 13:42 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Really excellent penultimate paragraph

21.05.2025 01:34 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Bravo

16.05.2025 14:04 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

It means Chinese-made intermediate goods that are manufactured elsewhere into finished goods for re-export. For example, Chinese motherboards exported to Taiwan for assembly into laptops that are then exported to the US. Looking only at bilateral China-US trade in motherboards is an underestimate.

12.04.2025 15:42 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Post image

More if you count Chinese content exported to SE Asia and then re-exported to the US. From Brad Setser.

12.04.2025 12:44 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1

This seems so clear from the historical record in places like 2000s Russia.

19.03.2025 01:43 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Currency manipulation is just one tool among many that both countries use to subsidize their export sectors. Overall, China's interventions are much more extreme than Japan's, though both are significant. No point in focusing on just one intervention at a time when what matters is the aggregate.

11.03.2025 03:57 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

The rational thing to do for plenty of US-defended countries with a threatening neighbor (e.g. South Korea, Japan, Poland, etc.) would be to develop their own nuclear weapons. Which of course would inspire others to get their own. Avoiding this was a big reason for the historic US offer of defense

26.02.2025 02:31 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Personally I have been influenced on this topic by Michael Pettis. It's worth at least reading Tade Wars are Class Wars.

22.02.2025 18:15 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
MicroStrategy Has Volatility to Sell Also Kiromic, fake insider betting and the optimal amount of bribery.

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

06.02.2025 20:13 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

The volatility can be monetized by selling convertible bonds. @matt-levine.bsky.social has discussed this.

06.02.2025 15:53 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

He means policies authored by and organs of government run by the Democratic Party.

26.01.2025 21:06 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Financial bubbles have burst for centuries without a regulatory cause. Regulators swing into action after the bezzle is gone, the damage is obvious, and people are baying for retribution.

16.01.2025 21:27 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

You're probably right about the starting point impacting the chart. I just mean I read Lords of Finance and it truly didn't sound like Hjalmar Schacht was presiding over a period in which gdp per capita rose ~40%.

09.01.2025 03:45 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

I really would have expected the 20s to have been worse than that for Germany.

08.01.2025 03:37 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Mexico runs an overall trade deficit and Canada is about neutral. It's not that hard to find the countries that run mercantilist persistent trade surpluses!

26.11.2024 02:24 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

$IBKR, $VIRT, and the independent investment banks have felt like the only semi-responsible way to participate in this crazed environment. I've been lightening up on the investment banks and wonder if it's time to do that with $IBKR too.

21.11.2024 17:41 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Listen to the people telling you to use the app!

17.11.2024 17:01 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

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