Quantian

Oh I’ve already stopped caring, I immediately pivoted to rotating the concept of “Bluesky bond desk” around in my head and chuckling. Is it ableist to DoorDash a happy meal convertible?

Quote a spread you coward, you aren’t running a bond desk here I have no idea what 90 means

IPO at 100x trailing revs is certainly *a* choice you could make

Steve Spurrier? The legendary organizer of the 1976 Judgement of Paris comparative Franco-American wine tasting?

Like legitimately the EU response should have been Macron black bagging the guy and putting him on trial for something (doesn’t matter what, figure it out). At least that way you have a real bargaining chip!

No one can have any doubts about Elon Musk except for the entire leadership of the EU and NATO allies who insist on repeatedly engaging in good faith because they assume it’s a legitimate disagreement and caving every time (the grossly inadequate fine probably won’t even happen)

LTGV+❓👀

Ok yes upon further review the TGV Lyria absolutely fucks; like many things that annoyed me I initially attributed to Switzerland or Europeans the true villains were the Germans all along.

Official policy documents of the Trump administration are saying that European countries are our enemy, I’m frankly shocked the favorability is still 30%

Why would the current administration in both countries not influence what is naturally an extremely political question?

Students absolutely sense weakness and respond accordingly. I taught the “math for English majors” elective but actually wrote my own worksheets and tests instead of phoning it using the prior year’s materials and my reviews were way better because they could tell (sqrt curving may also have helped)

If only there were some kind of hit movie about how betting on parlays will destroy your life with uncontrolled risk-seeking behavior

When they rolled out sports gambling in my state, they had the sitting governor cut a TV spot and I got targeted with between $5-10k of promotional bet comps between the platforms. You don’t hand out multiple months of median income if you think you won’t make way more than that!

You know I thought it was really lame that the main tourist attraction in Geneva was a fountain, but now that I’ve seen it I will admit a fuck off huge 20 story fountain absolutely rocks. This kicks ass.

“Chat are we cooked, they’re firing missiles at fam fr”

Which one is it? I would break it down something like 20/40/10/30 or so, but that’s purely by vibes and eyeballing it. I’m also doubtful of the implicit suggestion that everyone being paid more ceteris paribus makes housing more affordable, rather than that being capitalized in even higher prices!

Looking at one of these series in isolation gives you a monocausal explanation: if you post just the worker share you just see China, if you look at taxes you just see Reagan, if you look at profits you just see the rise of tech cos, and if you look at depreciation you just see a maturing economy.

I think the story here is that rising capital costs were first internalized by corporations in the form of margin compression, then by the government in the form of tax cuts, and then by outsourcing to China (the time periods line up), which resulted in a permanent shift lower in worker share.

2. Falling tax share over time, much of which is attributable to Reagan but a lot started before him and a lot continued after him
3. Very stable labor share through 2000, a very rapid drop, and resumption of that stable labor share at a lower level thereafter

If you stare at this graph you will notice several trends.
1. Increasing capital intensity and higher depreciation expense. As economies grow in wealth and complexity, you have more fixed assets, which means more shit to maintain and repair and more money you need to spend to keep it up.

You can essentially break corporate output into two parts: the “operating costs”, which consists of wages paid to workers PLUS the consumption of fixed capital (necessary investment to continue production); and the “operating surplus” which consists of profits PLUS various taxes paid to governments.

Maybe this should be a blogpost rather than a thread but I am sitting outside a cafe in Geneva chain smoking cigarettes and sipping an espresso so I will pontificate on here instead. Please study deeply my favorite graph of the American postwar economy, which I will reference throughout:

This article is a bit of a curate’s egg in that it makes many good points and many bad ones. I think there’s a huge- and not unjustified- temptation to lay the blame for this at Reagan’s feet but if I’m allocating blame I give him maybe 40-50% and more for wage inequality than wage share drops.

Short that is up significantly less than the market/sector but is still up, so you lost money but added alpha

It’s been a great alpha short this year, along with CSU CN which has just been a great actually short, in my personal “death to compounders” book

SBB is most definitely not the TVG

Remind me to never take a train outside Eastern Asia again

From the way people talk about them you’d assume European trains zipped through picturesque countryside at 300 mph while you played baccarat with a devastatingly beautiful Monegasque heiress and sipped Krug, but they’re basically just comfier Amtrak for 200 fucking dollars a ticket

They’re calling him the world’s most sober man:

“To the first World War”