@andrewlautz.bsky.social
Working on all things tax and econ policy for Bipartisan Policy Center.
Folks can argue growth will be higher than CBO is projecting in the years to come.
But CBO is not saying 1.8% because they're biased. It's because the population is aging and productivity is on the decline.
Full chart:
www.datawrapper.de/_/GQbti/
President Trump and Speaker Johnson have both called out the Congressional Budget Office's 1.8% economic growth assumption for the next decade.
Setting aside the notion CBO does projections based on the party in power (they don't), growth has been on a clear downward trend for decades.
ICYMI: Is the SALT deduction always/sometimes/never a good policy? @andrewlautz.bsky.social on the impact and trade-offs of raising the SALT deductions cap:
www.wnyc.org/story/salt-c...
Today:
- @andrewlautz.bsky.social on raising the SALT deductions cap,
- Envisioning 'good government' in NYC with @citizensunionny.bsky.social,
- @contrapoints.bsky.social on conspiracy theories,
- Listeners, what would YOU wait on line for?
Live at 10 on 93.9 FM, AM820 or @wnyc.org
More Americans may be paying individual alternative minimum tax if a change in the House-passed Republican tax-and-spending package remains in place.
But it won't get close to pre-TCJA levels, @kylepomerleau.bsky.social and @andrewlautz.bsky.social say.
buff.ly/Ak16FNg
Lawmakers from both parties want to revisit the current $10K cap on state and local #tax (SALT) deductions. Our explainer details how the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act changed SALT, who is most affected by the present cap, & suggests principles for fiscally responsible reform.
🔗https://bit.ly/4lhqOK9
Congress' tax scorekeeper, JCT, is out with new scores today on the cost of extending the 2017 GOP tax cuts.
JCT finds that extension costs $4.1 trillion over 10 years, and $700 billion more tacked on due to the extra interest payments we'll have to make on our debt.
punchbowl.news/wyden_merkle...
New from Rachel Snyderman and I:
What’s in the Senate GOP budget?
💸 1) up to $5.7 TRILLION in higher deficits/debt
🫣 2) an attempt to obscure a huge portion of that behind a "current policy" baseline that says tax cuts are free.
Read more:
bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/wh...
Happy baseline week. Remember: no budgetary rule can make $4.5 trillion in tax cuts cost $0!
Current policy just obscures the cost from the public and breaks decades of precedent.
📈 Congressional Budget Office finds extending Trump tax cuts w/o pay-fors would increase debt to GDP by almost 50 percentage points by 2054.
The baseline is a political choice, but it doesn't change that extending the tax cuts w/o paying for them adds trillions to debt.
www.cbo.gov/publication/...
The baseline debate is important because it's about transparency and honesty.
What it doesn't change is that extending the 2017 tax cuts costs $4 trillion over a decade.
Some friends here do a great job of explaining this for folks who aren't enmeshed in nerdy budget battles.
Aaron Judge's contract pays $40 million this year, but the Yankees are just continuing his current contract so it actually costs $0.
Sound ridiculous?
This is the "current policy" gimmick some Republicans are mulling for tax cuts.
Great metaphors here:
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Me convincing myself my 401(k) balance isn't down if I don't check it:
15.03.2025 21:10 — 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
The GOP's reconciliation bill is a moving target, and the menu of options changes daily.
Currently, the agenda may exceed $7 trillion over 10 years before offsets.
Lawmakers need to pay for new tax cuts/spending to avoid increasing deficits by a third.
bipartisanpolicy.org/tcja-offsets/
With skyrocketing government debt + borrowing costs, paying for new spending hikes or tax cuts is critical.
At Bipartisan Policy Center we have a new resource with options to pay for $4 trillion in expiring tax cuts.
One set of options out today. More next week.
bipartisanpolicy.org/tcja-offsets/
A crosswalk to how $45.6 billion in enforcement funding can turn into $2.5 billion in two years, with only 3% of the money actually spent.
Of the overall $79.6 billion to the IRS, a larger portion remains ($27.1 billion or 34%).
👋 Bluesky! Want to post a bit here as the 2025 tax debate gets underway in Washington.
Created a Tax Starter Pack for other tax folks coming here -- policy wonks, reporters, etc. -- but let me know if I missed you!
go.bsky.app/9pFtGbx
